**Sorry for long winded description of a past version of the deck. 10/12 is basically the same probabilities as 11/11. I just didn’t want to delete all of my writing.
With 3 consider and 3 impulse, there is then 6 one mana card draw spells, and less of a thing where you impulse early and have to choose between multiple desired cards out of 4.**
Old description:
This version now has 10 one drops and 12 two drops, which is a very good ratio for opening hands. (60% chance of having at least one 1 drop and one 2 drop in hand.) With 24 lands and a need to hit land drops there is now 5 one mana card draw spells and 4 2 mana card draw spells. This seems to draw better this way.
You'll find that the cumulative probability starts to increase at a point of unacceptable diminishing return after you try 11 and 12. The calculations go this way:
Chance of drawing card at 11 (cards per 60): 77.8
[Cummulative:]
11 and 13 is a 64 percent chance,
11 and 12 is a 62 percent chance,
11 and 11 is a 60 percent chance,
Because the odds only get better by 2 percent above the 11 and 11 ratio, it is ideal due to the concept of diminishing returns. The value of adding another one or two drop past 11 and 11 is no longer a 4 percent increase in probability.
You’ll find that 10 and 11 is 56% cumulative, so the jump to 11 and 11 is the last increase of 4% or more.
The same thing happens with 10 and 12. If you go to 10 and 13 then you get 61% probabilities. There are some decimal points, but the jump is still less than 2 percent, with the previous possible draw probabilities of 10 and 12 going back to 59.4 which makes the extra 2 drop in the 10 and 12 curve worth 4 percent instead of 2.
Edit: 10 and 12 is a 59.94 percent chance. I'm leaning more towards the full play-set of Impulse. Getting the deck to work on 11 and 11 involves playing something like 2 Consider and only 3 Impulse, or just no Impulse, 3 Censor and an extra Spell Pierce Or an extra Consider.
Testing an 11/11 build with one less impulse, and one less otherworldly gaze, but 3 consider instead of 2.
The next closest to ideal is 9 and 14, like in Rakdos midrange. I haven’t really tested this at all, because the 5 mama cost of all the dragons makes Spell Pierce so needed. You would have to go something like 4 gaze, 4 fiery impulse, 1 spell pierce or consider, and then 4 impulse, 4 scorns, 4 dragon’s fires, and 2 censor? This makes the first turn have potentially less one mana card draw spells… You’d also be dropping the riddles for censor, which might lead to playing 25 lands instead of 24, which might lead to not having the sweltering suns…. And then, blowout to aggro? I haven’t gone down that path.
With 24 lands there is a 58% chance that we draw a hand with exactly 3 lands, but keep in mind that hands with 2 lands and one copy of Otherworldly Gaze are still keepable in non-aggro matchups. Because Otherworldly Gaze has flashback it offers 6 cards of selection plus turn 2 draw step, making it a thing where the mulligan to look at 7 new cards feels the same as using gaze to look at 7 cards. Specifically if there is a dragon then these hands are a must keep, however, hand with a good set of answers and no dragon can also work because of the same idea.
(Probably only keep hands with Fiery Impulse or Dragon's Fire vs. Aggro, the latter of which requires 2 lands.)
Hands with good answers, (removal and counters) but no dragon and no card draw spells at all are risky. If you end up drawing a dragon and not enough land or end up not drawing a dragon then you might have a good opening game and then nothing. Remember that the chance of draw-stepping into a dragon with additional card draw from being-on-the-draw position is 39.1 percent. The chance that you also curve out on mana is 34 percent, which makes the cumulative probability (chance that both happen:) is a lowly 13 percent. (Chance that you have 5 mana and a dragon to cast on turn 5.)
This kind of hand is only something I would consider if:
A) I've already mulliganed once and I have a board wipe in hand vs. aggro.
In this situation, you only need one more land to hit 4 lands, and 3 draw steps to make it: 78 percent chance there of casting Storm's Wrath on turn 4. If the hand also has Fiery Impulse, Dragon's Fire or even Sweltering Suns, then I would consider it a keep in a situation where a slower hand with card draw and a dragon might lose anyways. If you mulligan this hand away then your chance of getting a Storm's Wrath goes back to 40%.
Three lands and a dragon means all of your Silumgar's Scorn and Dragon's Fire work. May you always have an Impulse to go with it. :)
Added Sweltering Suns, it has cycling, thereby it isn't a completely dead card in the slow matchups. I felt like I needed more help in the Phoenix matchup and the boros heroic matchup.
In a different meta game with less aggro decks it would be Dig Through Time instead of Sweltering Suns, hands-down.
Storm's Wrath, Fiery Impulse, and Dragon's Fire and Sweltering Suns as removal: total 13 spells.
Silumgar's Scorn, Spell Pierce and Confounding Riddle as counterspells: total 7 spells.
Otherworldly Gaze, Consider, Confounding Riddle, Impulse, Sweltering Suns, Iymrith, Desert Doom and Bonehoard Dracosaur as card draw/card advantage: total 18 spells.
Iymrith, Desert Doom, Bonehoard Dracosaur as threats: total of 6 cards.
24 lands with the Sulfur Falls theme + 11 island/mountains that make falls come in un-tapped. The goal is to always be able to cast turn 1 Otherworldly Gaze, thus the 6 Islands. There is also turn 2 double blue mana requirement of Silumgar's Scorn.
I replaced Field of Ruin with Spirebluff Canal because I have castable from hand removal.
I found that cards like Thrill of Possibility in the 2 mana card draw slot are better for delving Dig Through Time but not as good at digging for a dragon in hand. Discarding one to draw 2 gets you the equivalent of hand parity, (hand is the same size afterwards,) but only gives you the next 2 cards, whereas Impulse gives you 4 cards of selection and also hand-size parity.
The ideal line is to play your hand down to 1-2 cards, (or none,) before attacking with Iymrith, Desert Doom, which maximizes the card draw effectiveness of that dragon, whereas cruise instead of dig taps you out at sorcery speed and might get you pointless lands in hand which only leads to the dragon drawing you less cards.
Using a hypergeometric calculator is good for people.
Sideboard Plans
Rakdos Midrange
Take out 2 Fiery Impulse
In 2 Negate
The idea is that Fiery Impulse is too weak against too large of a portion of the creatures. However, stopping Thoughtseize and sideboard cards like Go Blank, as well as Duress, Dreadbore and Liliana of the Veil. The deck has a bunch of non-creature stuff in the side. Fiery Impulse as a late draw is just not probable to be good.
Izzet Pheonix
Out 2 Confounding Riddle
In 2 Cemetery Illuminator
Consider bringing in Counterflux somehow.
Not being able to resolve Storm's Wrath means we lose. Having counterspells for Lightning Axe after we attack with Iymrith, Desert Doom and she loses ward (4) is the other way to lose. Thereby alling in on Storm's Wrath as a way to wipe the Arclight Phoenix and then attacking with dragon is the way to go. Anytime we can eliminate the effect of their card advantage by using un-counterable counterspells its even better. The thing they do with all of those 1 mana card draw spells is have card advantage all the time.. It makes it likely that they will counterspell in response to a counterspell. Because of that Counterflux. Because of how much card draw they have its entirely likely post-board that they'll have 1 or 2 in hand to respond to our stop on Lightning Axe with.
Using Cemetery Illuminator, as a way to get a Lightning Axe out of their hand and a Phoenix out of their GY is the idea.
Think about using Summary Dismissal in place of something like Consider also.
Mono-Green
Out 3 Fiery Impulse
Out 1 Sweltering Suns
In 2 Alpine Moon
In 2 Negate
Very obvious choices to make here. Handling Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx with Alpine Moon.
Rakdos Sacrifice
Board nothing here potentially.
Mono-white humans
Out 2 Confounding Riddle
Out 1 Otherworldly Gaze
In 3 Rending Volley
Lotus Field
Out 4 Fiery Impulse
Out 1 Sweltering Suns
In 1 Test of Talents
In 2 Alpine Moon
In 1 Counterflux
In 1 Summary Dismissal
A lot of Ammo for this matchup. Counterflux with overload is great here. The Summary Dismissal play on Dragonlord Dromoka is key for us to be able to counterspell win-cons. We have to count on Dragon's Fire or Storm's Wrath to remove Lier, Disciple of the Drowned. We just have to remember that mastermind's aquisition can fetch from the exile zone. <3
Azorious Control
Out 4 Fiery Impulse
Out 1 Sweltering Suns
In 2 Counterflux
In 2 Negate
In 1 Summary Dismissal
Just more counterspells for the control matchup. Tapping out for Supreme Verdict becomes a potential mistake postboard.
Boros Convoke
Out 1 Consider
Out 1 Dig Through Time
Out 2 Confounding Riddle
In 2 Electrickery
In 2 Rending Volley
Another aggro matchup. Rending Volley is possible to be a dead card vs. Red creature tokens but it hits their big threats. Electrickery is the key to victory.
Abzan Greasefang
Out 4 Fiery Impulse
Out 1 Sweltering Suns
In 2 Negate
In 3 Rending Volley
Just lowering our CMC here and volley for greasefang.
Bring to Light Tibalt
Out 4 Fiery Impulse
Out 1 Sweltering Suns
In 1 Test of Talents
In 2 Counterflux
In 2 Negate
Again, Fiery Impulse doesn't finish anything big here off.
Spirits
Out 1 Consider
Out 2 Confounding Riddle
In 3 Rending Volley
Spirits too fast. Since we can't really wait them out until we have enough counterspell ammo in hand to win a big stack, we have to just go for Rending Volley, which is un-counterable.
Boros Heroic
Out 2 Confounding Riddle
Out 1 Dig Through Time
In 3 Rending Volley
Mono-blue spirits
Out 2 Confounding Riddle
Out 1 Consider
In 3 Rending Volley
Creativity
Out 4 Storm's Wrath
In 1 Test of Talents
In 2 Counterflux
In 1 Negate
If you'd prefer to leave the Fiery Impulse in to hit fable then that makes sense as well. Its probably Storm's Wrath that comes out here.
