Ashiok, Dream Render

Ashiok, Dream Render

Legendary Planeswalker — Ashiok

Spells and abilities your opponents control can't cause their controller to search their library.

-1: Target player puts the top four cards of their library into their graveyard. Then exile each opponent's graveyard.

Ashiok, Dream Render Discussion

wallisface on Modern Dimir Mill & Dauthi …

2 days ago

It looks like the info that Caerwyn is golden, so i’m going to try to avoid repeating anything that’s already been said.

On the specific topic on whether Dauthi Voidwalker has any home in mill, I think the only use-case is if you’re currently running Ashiok, Dream Render in the sideboard, as these cards serve similar purposes and I could see potential for swapping one for the other. However, such a move would be highly meta-dependant, as most mill decks currently don’t run Ashiok anyway, and Dauthi appears in most cases to be worse.

Answering some thoughts specific to StoryArcher: Tome Scour has no place is a mill deck, it equates to a worse Shock. Mono blue mill can perform well, but does struggle as far as controlling the board state, and staying alive. Also, stuff like Sanity Grinding is very gimmicky and liable to cost you games. I think because mill needs so many fetches anyway to make the crabs happy, you can basically run a second/third colour for free, so going mono-blue feels like a big concession.

Scytec on Lady and friends (retired)

1 week ago

Deepglow Skate will double loyalty on your walkers. Ashiok, Dream Render is a really solid walker to consider adding. Why did you choose Lady when you could go with a more traditional commander like Atraxa, Praetors' Voice and gain access to green?

jaymc1130 on After 500 games of testing …

2 weeks ago

So at this point I've managed to get in 500 games of Hullbreacher and Opposition Agent play in various decks and that's a large enough sample size to be pretty confident in the results of the data.

Hullbreacher already got banned but I'll start with some statistics for it. 503 game played with Hullbreacher included in at least one of the lists. 318 wins for Hullbreacher decks in that span, and with everything accounted for the card wound up with an expected win share percentage of + 6.6%. In other words, just adding that card alone to a deck would bump it's win share % up from 25% in a vacuum to over 31% in that same vacuum. Our database has some 5,000 total cEDH games tracked and logged at this point, and 10s of thousands of individual cards performance's tracked as well. This probably won't come as a shock, but Hullbreacher, of every single individual card we've ever tracked and tested posted the highest single card expected win share increase of any card in MTG's history. By a lot. More than double the increase in win share percentage from the next closest card with a minimum 500 game sample size. In our data set it's confirmed at this point to be the most dominant performing card in cEDH history. Not to surprising it wound up banned.

Astonishingly (or perhaps not) the number 2 card on the list in terms of expected win share contribution in a minimum sample size of 500 games in the entire 5000+ game data set we've collected is Opposition Agent. 500 games on the nose, 206 wins, and a final expected win share contribution of +3.1%. Until these 2 cards were printed we'd never had a single card post even a +3.0% expected win share contribution and we'd seen some dominant numbers from cards like Extract, Timetwister, Wheel of Fortune, Force of Will, Ashiok, Dream Render, Paradox Engine, Carpet of Flowers, Thassa's Oracle and Deathrite Shaman over +2.5%.

According to the data I've collected so far, Oppo Agent and Hullbreacher are the two most dominant cards ever printed for cEDH and by very significant margins. It wasn't even a contest, these two just performed heads and shoulders above every other card in the format.

Almost certainly this data set is not perfect or ideal, it's a mere 500ish game sample size compared to data we might have for a card in Legacy or Vintage that might have 10,000 or even 100,000 games of tracked data over several decades that can be easily found on the internet, so take these findings with a grain of salt would be my recommendation. I know since I've started posting more and more statistics based approaches to evaluating cards and decks in cEDH that more folks have been doing the same (hard to argue with the benefit of the results and those sweet extra wins here and there based off an analytics approach) and I'd be curious to see what kind of data others have collected about these 2 cards since their release. I think it's pretty unlikely our group wound up with an aberrant data set, but it's the kind of result that is so over the top and even a bit unexpected (seriously? THESE are the two best all time performing cards for cEDH?) that even I'm a bit skeptical looking at the results of the data collection.

We've had a fair amount of time to experiment with these 2 bad boys by now, so I'm curious about the results of any one else who tracks data like this and what their data set might say about the performance of these 2 cards in cEDH. If you've got some interesting results to share let us know how they've been performing in your games.

bvowles on BW Control

3 weeks ago

I'd play less lands, probably around 24-25, play more Fatal Push and some Path to Exile in your sideboard. Maybe Ashiok, Dream Render in place of Dovin. I'm not a big fan of Gideon, Ally of Zendikar and I'd suggest Elspeth, Sun's Champion as a one or two-of at most. Inquisition of Kozilek is really good right now, I'd suggest playing three main. For sideboard I don't recommend more than one Flaying Tendrils. I'd play a few Path to Exile's like I said earlier as they're still the best answer for Murktide Regent and other large CMC threats that are hard to deal with using Prismatic Ending or Fatal Push. Can't always top deck Kaya's Guile to make the opp sac a creature.

Skyclave Apparition might be really good in this deck too.

Speaking of good right now, I'd play 4 Kaya, Orzhov Usurper as that card is really good right now.

It's cool, I like the idea playing a mid range, super grindy orzhov deck. All of the previous was just suggestions and personal opinion, obviously play whatever is fun for you. Is this intended to be FNM, competitive or kitchen table? I have more suggestions but it depends on how you answer lol. For instance I'd say play a set of Dauthi Voidwalker with more Ashiok, Dream Render because Ashiok's minus will exile all of those cards with Voidwalker counters on them.

zapyourtumor on Lurrus Delirium Shadow

2 months ago

Also you can't use Lurrus as your companion after game 1 if you decide to board in Ashiok, Dream Render , Klothys, God of Destiny , and Leyline of Sanctity so you might consider finding alternatives. Nihil Spellbomb could replace your gy hate and synergizes with Lurrus. Leyline is probably not super important since your burn matchup is decent and hand disruption isn't a huge problem.

jaymc1130 on About Urza's Saga in cEDH

2 months ago

When this card was spoiled I thought it looked super sweet and that it would find homes in all the eternal formats and be a dominant component in the more modern formats. Now that I've had a chance to play about 100 games combined with and against the card in cEDH settings, however, I've reached a very surprising conclusion.

This card is actually unplayable in cEDH settings. It's legitimately a net negative contribution towards expected win rate just by holding a slot in the 99 (-2.4 % in this sample size, about twice the percentage at which our group stops playing cards in this format at all). When actually played in a game (according to the data we've collected so far) that negative contribution towards win rate triples to almost -7.5%. If the expected average win rate of a deck in a vacuum assuming players and decks of equivalent capabilities is 25% for a 4 man pod, dropping down to 18% and giving up a quarter of you're expected win shares for a card you play yourself is simply awful. A 100 game sample size isn't a huge data set, but it's become a benchmark by which we evaluate things in our group.

This would have shocked me completely if I hadn't been witness to the exact reasons this card has difficulties in the format. With that experience it seems not only logical, but obvious that this card will struggle in cEDH. I'll dive into why in more detail.

  1. In a format where games are either insanely explosive or astonishingly grindy, Urza's Saga can't hold up either end of the bargain. A 3 turn clock for a free tutor seems solid at face value, but is way too slow for this specific format to be considered a consistent means of generating an advantage in game. Every white deck is running Aven Mindcensor , every blue/black deck is running Ashiok, Dream Render and Opposition Agent . Just resolving the tutor portion of this card successfully happened a hair shy of 1/3 of the time the tutor effect triggered in our games. This is way too slow, with way too much risk and a typically modest at best reward to be effective in the more explosive games. When it comes to grindy affairs this is a land that sacrifices itself and causes it's owner to lose the battle of attrition in a huge way (doubly so in the case of Oppo Agent hijacking the tutor) in a format where making consistent land drops every turn is often very difficult. Denying yourself resources by playing your own cards is generally a less than ideal circumstance. Urza's Saga just doesn't perform in either scenario.

  2. The constructs are not only meaningless in cEDH, but are a trap to even make. Spending mana on the early turns of game in cEDH on constructs is never a correct play, no matter what deck a player may be piloting. Tapping out to make some random non impactful bears and playing shields down into opponents is a fantastic way to lose a lot of games. While the constructs may be very powerful in other formats, in cEDH this aspect of Urza's Saga is quite literally worse than useless as choosing this option tends to present opposing players with very easy windows of opportunity to win games while you're tapped out and cannot represent the ability to interact with an attempted win. Those constructs certainly won't be killing any opponents very quickly any ways (outside of Urza Artificer decks) if this isn't the case.

  3. Urza's Saga does not produce colored mana. This might actually be the most impactful negative aspect of this card in cEDH settings, it's a bit hard to tell. Regardless, in the most competitive settings, mana base consistency and being able to cast spells and interact with opponents in the first 3 or 4 turns of the game is a critical component of consistent success in the format. Urza's Saga simply isn't going to help in this regard and makes it an unappealing choice for a land drop in the opening stages of the game (precisely when it would be most effective, timing wise, as a play to set up a tutor effect for down the road).

In hindsight it seems like these things should all have been very obvious from the jump. Still, I really wanted for this card to be good in what has become my favorite format. Sadly, from a cEDH statistical performance perspective at least, this card appears to be completely unplayable. I hope you folks have had more success than we have with the Saga, and if not, well, at least we know why.

wallisface on Merfolk Land Hate

3 months ago

So, Tide Shaper , Sea's Claim , and Spreading Seas are all really good ways to deal with lands. However, Eye of Nowhere , Boomerang , and Hidden Strings are not at all.

  • The bounce effects of Eye of Nowhere & Boomerang will not slow your opponent down much at all, seeing as most modern decks can comfortably cast most of their spells with 2 lands in play - and they can simply replay the land you've bounced. This will often cost you more tempo than it will disrupt your opponent.

  • Hidden Strings being sorcery speed means that you can never tap down an opponents lands to do anything meaningful, besides maybe preventing counter-magic (they'll be untapping everything in their upkeep anyway). Any other instant-speed stuff the opponent wants to cast they can just do in response to you casting this. The Cipher effect seems even less useful, as there's even less valid targets to tap down after the combat phase, leaving you mostly having to untap your own stuff to get value.

I would suggest the following two cards instead:

  • Convincing Mirage is another card that will permanently turn off an opponents land, so is a lot more useful than a flicker effect.

  • Ashiok, Dream Render prevents your opponent being able to search their deck at all, which means if they're playing fetchlands, these lands are useless to them now.

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