Developing Competitive Mill
Modern forum
Posted on Aug. 5, 2015, 5:28 p.m. by electromancer
Some guidelines I probably read somewhere, that cpu_10 asked me to post here-
How to Determine the value of a Mill card assuming our opponents deck size is like their life total for a Mill deck:
Divide by the deck size (~50 after 3 turns), and multiply by the life total (20) to determine a cards equivalent efficiency in a burn deck.
For example:
Glimpse the Unthinkable x 2/5ths = 4 "damage"
Therefore it has the same a efficiency as Boros Charm.
Some other popular mill cards in Modern:
Tome Scour = 2 damage (Pillar of Flame)
Mind Sculpt/Breaking= more or less 3 damage (Lightning Strike)
Hedron Crab= about 1-2.5 damage per turn
Mind Funeral= complicated, on average it mills for 12 cards, approximately equivalent to 5 damage (fairly descent).
From these rough calculations you can see that some mill cards are over-valued for "burn" strategies, some are undervalued, and some are way overpriced.
This is my first post to the forums, so please excuse any mistakes I might have made in posting this.
One problem with mill is it's not as fast as aggressive decks. If you want to compare library to life total, you need to consider creatures getting damage through multiple times.
August 5, 2015 5:35 p.m.
electromancer says... #4
@goodair,
I agree, Hedron Crab is nothing close to the same power level as Goblin Guide. Yet I see a lot mill decks posted that go straight for the library without any interaction.
August 5, 2015 5:48 p.m.
GlistenerAgent says... #5
I think this is something most people know or have compared already. The serious deficiency in efficacy of mill spells is one of the arguments for why mill sucks, the other being that the cards cannot create card advantage, and thus either go all the way or do nothing.
August 5, 2015 5:50 p.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #6
Ooh fun :)
Anyhow, comparing mill to burn using life totals is not the right idea. Burn has more efficient spells but as a consequence has little to no disruption (besides burning creatures) and can be dealt with fairly easily with numerous cards. Mill takes away resources from the opponent and has a nice control aspect to it, making it harder to disrupt and there are little answers to it, unlike burn. It also has a hwalthy amount of card draw. On the flip side, it's slower than burn and will downright lose to any deck using Eldrazi lords. But the point is that they are very different decks.
Also, Crab goes for 6 cards regularly if you have the right amount of fetches.
August 5, 2015 5:54 p.m. Edited.
CanadianShinobi says... #7
It's funny, but Standard has a semi-competitive mill deck right now that uses Sphinx's Tutelage. Too bad it's too slow for Modern.
August 5, 2015 6:08 p.m.
electromancer says... #8
@FAMOUSWATERMELONYou're right, 6 x 2/5th = 2.4 which is really good. I made a mistake in my post. Hedron Crab could be phenomenal for a mill deck. As for your comment:
"Mill takes away resources from the opponent and has a nice control aspect to it, making it harder to disrupt and there are little answers to it, unlike burn"
I mostly disagree. Unless an opponents deck is chock full of tutors, mill generally only serves to benefit the opponent until they've lost. In addition, some decks have answers to mill unintentionally, such as emrakul in a tron deck. I do agree that mill could be used as a strategy for a control deck but I don't think a deck like that would use most of the cards I mentioned (like Glimpse the Unthinkable).
Some people might be interest in the "top control" and "pixie stix" deck that have been floating around the internet. I haven't heard of any being competitive but they're not terrible either.
August 5, 2015 6:35 p.m.
electromancer says... #9
D'Oh you already mentioned emrakul, but your correction about Hedron Crab got me excited and I'm thinking I should investigate some type of amulet bloom or scapeshift build.
August 5, 2015 6:51 p.m.
CrimsonKing says... #10
The only way I see mill being competitive is to have a single win condition (Nephalia Drownyard)(Sphinx's Tutelage) with a control shell or an infinite combo effect (Painter's Servant)+(Grindstone) effect.
August 5, 2015 7:53 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #11
The deck isn't interactive enough ...you might be able to run some Polymorph in it though...
August 5, 2015 8:24 p.m.
TheGodofNight says... #13
I run a fairly competitive modern Mill deck. Force of Mill, and I think the burn comparison is actually quite accurate. In a sense, the idea is to be able to mill out your opponent before they are able to burn through your life total. So in essence, all of my opponents have a life total of 60 (53 after drawing) and I have a life total of 20.
True, there are quite a number of bad match ups for mill, but there are a variety of answers to most of those bad match ups. For instance, against Eldrazi, Surgical Extraction is key. If I get the impression that I am up against a deck running Eldrazi, I'll keep a Surgical Extraction in hand in reserve for just such a issue. True, I might not know it until it's too late in game 1, but that's where I would benefit in game 2 and 3.
Leyline of Sanctity is a bitchy card for mill and burn, but again, since it would be a sideboard card, I have sideboard answers for it. I find more often than not (among those, my favorite is Hunted Horror). Like most mill players, I try to use the sideboard for everything I'm weak against, which in large scale events, makes it an uphill battle to do.
Most people don't have really good sideboard tech for Mill strategies, because they don't consider it a viable strategy to begin with. As such, I find that I am able to steal a lot of game 1 victories (unless my deck decides to piss all over me) by sheer surprise. An opponent cracking a fetchland on turn 0 or 1 doesn't expect to be hit for a mill spell for 13-26 cards (and on the rare occasions, milled for 52). In fact, that usually throws them completely off guard because they usually don't have a response.
The trick to competitive mill, is to keep the pressure on from beginning. The moment you lose steam, you risk defeat. As such, a mill deck is a lot like a burn deck. If they don't keep applying pressure, they can eventually run out of steam and it's game over. As it stands, aside from the fragile infinite mill combos like Duskmantle Guildmage + Mindcrank , you find that mill struggles because it is missing something. In the case of my deck, I've sacrificed bodies for mill spells. Yes, I'm using Darkness. and I can throw a Hedron Crab or Snapcaster Mage in front of something charging at me; but I am giving up a more secure defensive position in favor of an aggressive mill spell stance.
For now, Mill remains an underdog tactic that a lot of people want to like, but know isn't practical. As such, there are tons of folks who love mill decks, and hope to see them do well, but most stick with the decks that consistently prove themeselves.
August 5, 2015 8:47 p.m.
electromancer says... #14
@TheGodofNight This looks exactly like the type of deck I was addressing. I find the Darkness a bit funny if not questionable. Since it's working in your mill deck, do you think Fog would in R/G burn? (Not trying to be sarcastic, I think it would be hilarious to do that if it works).
August 5, 2015 9:13 p.m.
TheGodofNight says... #15
I don't pretend to be a burn style player, as such any speculation I make is just speculation, but most burn style decks would rather have a direct damage spell over a defensive spell like Fog. I think that if they were trying to buy some turns for something, then Fog would be an interesting addition to their strategy. Also, how is Darkness questionable? True, it isn't a mill spell, but it does buy me a a turn or two to push my opponent's library to their graveyard, and I find with Mill, that extra turn can be the difference between a win and a loss.
August 5, 2015 9:24 p.m.
electromancer says... #16
Fair enough it was just a thought. Maybe running stuff like Silence or Render Silent would work for mill as well.
August 5, 2015 9:39 p.m.
selesvyaloverer8 says... #18
Theres a pretty sweet esper mill deck that reid duke played against on stream. it ran Mesmeric Orb which was pretty sweet. it also ran lingering souls which synergizes with mesmeric orb and is good for blocking. The video can be found here
August 5, 2015 9:49 p.m.
electromancer says... #19
@APPLE01DOJ Oh okay, I assume you're thinking of the Lingering Souls Polymorph into Emrakul, the Aeons Torn style deck? Actually given selesvyaloverer8's post I think you're on to something there.
@selesvyaloverer8 Mesmeric Orb definitely looks the part for making mill viable. Self-mill can be pretty valuable. Thanks for posting the video!
August 5, 2015 10:09 p.m.
TheGodofNight says... #20
@ selesvyaloverer8 & electromancer
Mesmeric Orb is another key component of my Mill deck. True it can mill me out, but it is one of those great political cards that forces my opponent to play more carefully, lest he or she helps me win. Another popular choice by Mill decks is Ensnaring Bridge. Personally, I like Mesmeric Orb more because it either slows them down or helps mill them out faster.
August 5, 2015 10:18 p.m.
electromancer says... #21
I think the guy in the video was running both. I actually really liked the Mind Funeral + Path to Exile synergy the esper has. TheGodofNight what would you say are your worst and best matchups (aside from anyone running leyline)?
August 5, 2015 10:38 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #22
Mesmeric Orb is what you run when you want to do Control-mill. Run things like Remand, Mana Leak, Serum Visions and Esper Charm in the main. A single Mesmeric Orb could mill about 7-15 cards.
However, this isn't viable anymore. Why? Kolaghan's Command.
August 6, 2015 12:17 a.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #23
Orb is too slow for anything but control mill. Which is even less viable than the actual thing.
August 6, 2015 2:52 a.m.
TheGodofNight says... #24
Respectfully, I disagree. I find that the longer a game goes, the more effective Mesmeric Orb is. While I'm not looking to go beyond turn 5 or 6, the amount of mill from Mesmeric Orb is enough to help finish the job. True, it is a better fit in a mill-control shell, but if it is milling for an additional 4-5 cards a turn that's 12-15 cards for 3 turns, which is roughly a quarter of someone's deck. If they opt not to tap out to play creatures and spells, then they are slowing down, giving me more time to hit them with more mill spells. Either way, I see that as a win-win for my deck.
As for my worst match ups, I tend to think Tron is a little tougher, mostly because if I don't get a Surgical Extraction or two in hand, then I have to spend that much more time milling them out again. I find though, that most Tron players will scoop if I remove all of their win cons. Burn decks also tend to be a rough match up. If they don't lose steam, it's a struggle to keep up with them. Sometimes I get lucky and mill them into land draws which messes up their momentum. Sometimes not.
I find I do best against decks with less early game board presence. If you aren't slamming down threats on turn one or turn two, then I am on less of a clock. Infect is one such deck, but again, I rely heavily on my sideboard tech to address such issues. I once was beaten to death by a Noble Hierarch because I dropped a Chalice of the Void for one, locking out all of their pump spells. Then I hit a nasty set of draws (nothing but land), and they slowly beat my to death with a Hierarch and Cathedral of War for a double exalted trigger. Most times I can recover, and my sideboard tech is what saves me in the tougher match ups. It is mill after all, and as much as I enjoy it, I know that it is lacking compared to many other T1 decks out there.
August 6, 2015 8:18 a.m.
JexInfinite says... #25
Burn spells are removal as well as a win condition, which is super relevant. Burn decks also add to the board, and punish greedy mana, which Mill can't do. Mill doesn't affect the board whatsoever.
August 6, 2015 8:19 a.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #26
God - Orb, in 3 turns, will probably mill anywhere from 4-12 cards, depending on the deck, and assuming that it doesn't get destroyed. Other mill spells are perhaps about the same efficiency, but they do it immediately and don't run the risk of being destroyed. You're better off replacing orb by more support (drawing, more counters, etc...) to be more resilient, assuming that you already have the full mill package, obviously.
Jex - I guess that I was thinking about Esper mill in particular, which has PtE with the trap. But dimir probably doesn't have any, you're right.
August 6, 2015 1:32 p.m.
Hands down the best card mill had is the Archive Trap. To maximize that card run white and use Path to Exile. Second most powerful card is Crypt Incursion. Against aggro you just destroy them if you can mill a bunch and fire off incursion.
Esper also opens you up to lots of good help in the board.
Also, I think we should rethink Mesmeric Orb math. If the opponent plays and taps 4 lands in the first 4 turns that is 9 (2+3+4) cards milled without even counting creatures or other permanents. It can mill a ton versus a creature heavy deck, and changes the math for your opponent regardless. Orb works great for me but admittedly it works best in longer games. Your mileage may vary but i suggest you at least give it a try.
Jex is right tho, mill needs 1) creatures that mill and 2) removal that mills in order to be playable in real competition.
cpu_10 says... #2
Thank you, this is incredibly helpful. I really appreciate it!
August 5, 2015 5:34 p.m.