Which booster box is more valuable?
Economics forum
Posted on June 30, 2015, 12:57 p.m. by OmegaAura113
So, my parents are getting me two booster boxes of magic, and I have a limit of 200$ to spend. I've already chosen to preorder a Magic Origins box off EBay (93$), but I'm stuck on what else to choose. I'm considering these:
KTK
Avacyn Restored
RTR
Conspiracy
A second Magic Origins
I'm mainly looking for re-trade value so I can complete a few decks, and these have the most valuable cards i could find who's boxes were between 100-110$ on EBay. Could anybody give me any advice on what I should choose? Thanks in advance!
Hjaltrohir says... #3
Couldn't you just buy singles?
If not, then KTK or Origins because KTK has a good amount of eternal value and Origins will be very hyped (as Magicrafter said)
June 30, 2015 1:03 p.m.
canterlotguardian says... #4
Origins or KTK. Conspiracy doesn't have consistent value, but Dack Fayden is still pretty sweet. Same with AVR; it really only has Avacyn, Angel of Hope and Griselbanned going for it.
RTR has shocks and Abrupt Decay but that's about it.
So yeah, either Origins or KTK, is my recommendation.
June 30, 2015 1:06 p.m.
magicevan11 says... #5
Buy singles. Booster boxes are the equivalent to playing the lottery. Two hundred dollars worth of singles can buy you the cards you want to make a deck.
June 30, 2015 1:07 p.m.
magicevan11 says... #6
Have your parents put $200 into a paypal account, and use that account to buy singles on tcgplayer.com. You'll be much better off.
June 30, 2015 1:08 p.m.
canterlotguardian says... #7
Assuming his parents are willing to do that. They kind of already set the stipulation for them using this money on him. It's worth a shot though.
Origins is not going to be as bad in the "pack lottery" because almost every single card in the whole set has so much hype surrounding it. Prices won't be going down any time soon because everyone wants everything that's in it. (Well, the rares/mythics, anyways.)
June 30, 2015 1:10 p.m. Edited.
IMHO, I'm going to support conspiracy. While not the highest EV right now..... it will be in the future. Full of legacy and modern staples, amazing to draft.... etc. But, if you can, SINGLES!
June 30, 2015 1:18 p.m.
HolyFalcon says... #9
Go Conspiracy. Get Brainstorm
and Dack Fayden. Build modern U-Tron. Give it to me.
June 30, 2015 1:20 p.m.
Economically speaking, KTK boxes have had the highest average value of sets in a long while. So if you're looking for value in return, go there. Similarly, Origins is looking good so far; but is only a little over half spoiled... so that's not a bet I would make yet.
In terms of Fun. Drafting Orgins will probably be way better then a KTK draft. Conspiracy was hella fun to draft, but does leave you with Worldknit etc etc sitting in your collection gathering dust.
June 30, 2015 1:31 p.m.
UpsetYoMama says... #11
Avacyn Restored has probably more value than you think. Especially with Cavern of Souls off the charts right now. If you get a Cavern you've made nearly half your value back already. The biggest issue I see is that most of the value cards are mythics: Avacyn, Angel of Hope, Griselbrand, Tamiyo, the Moon Sage, Craterhoof Behemoth, Entreat the Angels
Conspiracy is all about the foils. A lot of the foils are off the charts. For example, a foil Council's Judgment goes for over $50 whereas a nonfoil is like 7. So if you want to play the foil lottery definitely Conspiracy (and it's a ton of fun to draft with friends).
The problem I have with KTK is that unless you pull a foil fetch, it's unlikely to get anything near your money back. Most of the stuff doesn't have eternal value other than fetches. Same with RTR, although that's worse because a foil shock is less than a foil fetch. Although it does have Abrupt Decay and Deathrite Shaman!
My vote is either AVR or CON. If you get more Origins I would sell ASAP once you get stuff because most of it is extremely hyped.
As other people are saying, singles are a better investment though if you know what cards you need.
June 30, 2015 1:38 p.m.
NoPantsParade says... #12
Buy singles. You'll get more bang for your buck with singles. You might not pull much trade value from those boxes. And if you buy singles, you might have some money leftover to buy some other things.
June 30, 2015 2:22 p.m.
Everyone here saying "buy singles" No. Opening a booster box is Fun! :)
June 30, 2015 2:27 p.m.
NoPantsParade says... #14
Sure it's fun, but it's not fun opening up bulk and junk. In the short run it's fun, but in the long run down the road, you'll likely be kicking yourself, unless you pull something great. My Innistrad box was fantastic and my luck ran out after a Gatecrash box. After my KTK, I promised myself I would never buy a box again.
June 30, 2015 2:30 p.m.
NoPantsParade says... #16
If you have to get a box and can't buy singles, go with at Conspiracy. It's fun to draft with friends at the very least. And if you're feeling super lucky, you could pull some nice foils. But that's if you're lucky.
Seriously, buy singles. You might have money leftover to buy yourself some other things, especially if you look in the right places.
June 30, 2015 2:36 p.m.
slovakattack says... #17
Conspiracy's EV is inconsistant, but whooboy... when it's there, it's there. It's foils have a nutso EV if you can get the right ones.
Dack Fayden: 300 USD
Marchesa, the Black Rose: 90USD
council's judgement: 70ish USD
Brainstorm: 60USD
Stifle: 55 USD
Exploration: 40USD
Swords to Plowshares: 15USD (I think)
Misdirection 30USD
Scourge of the Throne: 90 USD
You get the idea. One thing I'd be wary about is that I believe Conspiracy is gonna crash soon, as it's EV is starting to get there. If I had to choose 2, it'd be Conspiracy and Origins, as prices for cards in Origins are always hyped. If you can sell yo stuff off quick, that's money.
As always, buying singles is better tho.
June 30, 2015 2:46 p.m.
OmegaAura113 says... #18
Normally I do buy singles, pretty much because of what you're all saying: it's better than wasting money on packs and getting junk rares. But I've also had great experiences with boxes that have themselves: I got a KTK box for Christmas and pulled two foil fetches (Bloodstained Mire and Windswept Heath), following it up in DTK two months ago by pulling 7 mythics (4 dragonlords, 1 Dragon Whisperer, 1 foil Dragon Whisperer, and a Descent of the Dragons).
On top of the fact that most of the singles I need are 20$+, so 200$ will quickly be spent on 7 or 8 cards, while I could get 36 different rares/mythics a box with some worth more than the price of what I need. Hopefully I could continue my lucky drawings and easily be repayed 200$ I spent in tradeable cards while still having some rares left over for myself, which is really why I'm choosing boxes over singles.
June 30, 2015 3:15 p.m.
OmegaAura113 says... #19
But yeah, by now I'm stuck between AVR, a second Origins, and Conspiracy. I've kinda ruled out KTK and RTR since the lands are pretty much the only cards with major value.
June 30, 2015 3:16 p.m.
canterlotguardian says... #20
Out of those, I'd go with either AVR or Conspiracy. Leaning more towards Conspiracy because of the guaranteed foil in every pack (or am I thinking about Modern Masters?)
June 30, 2015 3:20 p.m.
GeeksterPlays says... #22
It also depends on what your aim here is!
Play Standard mostly? Get a second Origins box.
Play Modern more? Get Conspiracy box.
Want to draft? Conspiracy for sure.
Want to make money? Do something else! MtG boxes do not earn you profit, and even if they do, you're left with none of the cards so you can't play anyway without rebuying!
June 30, 2015 5:10 p.m.
Serendipitous_Hummingbird says... #25
conspiracy
lots of commanders in there. But more importantly, Brainstorm and Swords to Plowshares at common and uncommon, respectively.
June 30, 2015 10:27 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #27
I'd go with a 2nd Origins box if you have a means to unload it quickly. Otherwise I would go with RTR. There is tons of playable cards. Supreme Verdict Lotleth Troll Detention Sphere Golgari Charm Sphinx's Revelation Jace, Architect of Thought Vraska the Unseen Abrupt Decay, shocks Deathrite Shaman Desecration Demon
HolyFalcon says... #2
I say Origins because hype will be high.
June 30, 2015 1 p.m.