I added 2 Orzhov Guildgate in place of 2 Swamp. I needed to improve the odds of hitting white on turn 3 to cast Banishing Light on curve, as well as hitting double white on turn 6 to cast Elspeth, Sun's Champion on curve.
The following probability calculations make the following assumptions:
- I am on the play. That means I have seen 9 cards on turn 3, and 12 on turn 6.
- I didn't mulligan.
- I have the card I'm worried about in hand -- for Banishing Light, I have 9 cards, but 1 of them is Banishing Light.
- I don't care about my other mana. Other than the white sources, I don't care about the rest of my land probabilities. Mostly because if I can't hit that then (1) who cares how many white sources I have if I can't cast the card I want? And (2), it makes the math way harder.
- Banishing Light Probabilities on Turn 3:
- Odds of having no white mana with 8 white sources = 29%
- Odds of having no white mana with 9 white sources = 24%
- Odds of having no white mana with 10 white sources = 20%
- Elspeth, Sun's Champion Probabilities on Turn 6:
- Odds of having less than 2 white mana with 8 white sources = 48% (!!!)
- Odds of having less than 2 white mana with 9 white sources = 40%
- Odds of having less than 2 white mana with 10 white sources = 34%
Honestly, the odds of hitting Elspeth aren't great even with this, but I think as it is she's worth having as a two-of. I may cut one of her to bring in a fourth Desecration Demon though.
That being said, it seems clear to me that 10 white sources is dramatically better than 8. Since I still want to be able to cast Nightveil Specter, everything other than Mutavault must be able to tap for black. I don't want more than 10 because 6 comes-into-play-tapped lands are already pushing the boundaries of what I'm comfortable with.
