The Sky is Falling and Other Lessons We Learned from Pro Tour: Oath of the Gatewatch
Modern forum
Posted on Feb. 8, 2016, 2 p.m. by DrFunk27
First I'd like to say that I've recently started writing again, and I'm considering a monthly or bi-monthly Modern article for T/O. I'm not sure who to convene with about this, but I would assume Yeago (not linking him on purpose, don't need to summon him to my lowly thread.) but if anyone knows how I get involved in writing an article series, let me know.
Second, long thread titles seem to get more views, so I can check that block.
Third, and I promise this is my last point, before I ramble on about what we as players learned from Pro Tour, is that I've recently enjoyed engaging threads from the T/O community, and I hope this will continue. I believe civil discourse to be both a lost art, and invaluable life skill. Through this "article," I would ask that everyone comment with respectful civility, however, you should be ready to defend whichever position you choose. It is important that you understand why you choose to believe something, rather than just for the sake of it but I digress.
Act I: The Sky is Falling
Curtains open to a sole figure, weeping. A deckbox lays at their feet, opened, with cards strewn across the floor. In their hand, the audience can barely make out the card, but they know. They all know what calamity has befallen this player.
Almost everyone knows that Splinter Twin was banned in the preceding weeks to Pro Tour. This is not new, and I'm not going to dive into the 5 W's of the ban. There are enough articles, opinions, and general resentment for this decision floating around all over the internet. What I would like to say is that the mood of the Magic community seems to be that of our dear fellow, Chicken Little. Why do I say that? As a player who loves Modern as a format, and who has endured my fair share of bans (RIP Deathrite Shaman and Bloodbraid Elf), I think that we, as players and a community, need to step back and actually dissect the meta game. Before we get to Act II, I think we should all at least start on a base level that, "No, Modern's sky is not falling. The format is not going to completely implode from one great showing of a new archetype." If you disagree, please feel free to outline your argument in the comments, but for the sake of this article, that is the premise on which I will build my argument. Curtains Close
ACT II: Creatures. Creatures everywhere.
Curtains open to a feature match where 2 Eldrazi decks are battling for supremacy. As each player takes turn attacking, life totals change, and creatures die. Player 2, down to 1 life passes the turn. Player 1, untaps, draws and top decks a Gut Shot for the win! The crowd goes wild! Eldrazi are awesome! We love mirror matches! Goooooo Eldrazi!
With the twin ban, it came as no surprise that the meta would speed up. Without the inevitable T4 Twin win, or the Summer Bloom into Primeval Titan for the T3 win, the format was likely to increase in popularity in 2 different ways. Creatures or Unfair strategies. Now, as far as unfair strategies are concerned, I'm not going to dive to deep into them, except to say that I consider the unfair decks to be the following:
- Infect
- Melira Chord
- Storm
- Tron
- Living End
- Grishoalbrand
- Valakut
I've probably missed a few decks, but that makes up most of them. If I've missed any, please let me know. The fair decks that have increased in popularity are:
- Affinity
- Suicide Zoo
- Burn
- Jund
Now, the question you've all been waiting for. "Where does Eldrazi fit into the new meta?" This is a somewhat tough question, because the answer isn't as clear as you would think. In it's purest form, it's an aggressive creature deck that does very unfair things by abusing Eye of Ugin to reduce the casting costs of it's creatures. However, at it's heart, this deck is really just an aggro or midrange deck that is highly resilient and consistent. I'm not ready to call this an unfair deck yet but I'm definitely leaning towards calling it an unfair deck based on it's explosive start and extremely strong top decks.
For those that either chose to watch or could not watch the Pro Tour, I'm sure you're aware that 6 of the top 8 decks featured an Eldrazi archetype. This wasn't a surprise the week leading up to Pro Tour, as Eldrazi seemed to have the edge on the metagame, but I was still surprised to see 6 of 8 in the last day. Most players have called for an immediate ban for Eye of Ugin. Others are annoyed, angry, and hostile to Modern based on the fact that Eldrazi SEEM to have completely taken over the format. It is true 6 of the top 8 were Eldrazi, but what most of us are overlooking are decks 9-50. If you really peel back the layers of Pro Tour, you will see an incredibly diverse field. It is there we will end this article.
Act III: The Finale: The Overlooked Results
Here is a wall of text for your viewing pleasure. These are all the decks, in point order, that scored 20+ points at the Pro Tour. Read through this and tell me what you see, because at the end I will outline what I see when I look at this list.
28 pts Eldrazi Aggro
28 pts Affinity
27 pts Eldrazi Aggro
27 pts Eldrazi Aggro
27 pts Archangel Chord
27 pts Eldrazi Aggro
25 pts Eldrazi Aggro
25 pts Affinity
25 pts Eldrazi Aggro
24 pts Lantern Control
24 pts Melira Chord
24 pts Bushwhacker Zoo
24 pts Magus Zoo
24 pts Eldrazi Aggro
24 pts Naya Burn
24 pts Jund
24 pts Valakut
24 pts Affinity
24 pts Through the Breach
24 pts Eldrazi Aggro
22 pts Eldrazi Aggro
22 pts Mardu
21 pts Junk
21 pts Jund
21 pts Infect
21 pts Infect
21 pts Infect
21 pts Melira Chord
21 pts Though the Valakut
21 pts Though the Valakut
21 pts UWr Kikki
21 pts Naya Burn
21 pts Naya Burn
21 pts Melira Chord
21 pts Infect
21 pts Naya Burn
21 pts Mardu
21 pts Eldrazi Aggro
21 pts Affinity
21 pts Affinity
21 pts Archangel Chord
21 ptsArchangel Chord
21 pts Affinity
21 pts Affinity
21 pts Ad Nauseam
21 pts Affinity
21 pts Affinity
21 pts Affinity
21 pts Infect
21 pts Blue Moon
21 pts Elves
21 pts Grishoalbrand
21 pts Grixis Delver
21 pts Infect
21 pts Bushwhacker Zoo
21 pts Eldrazi Aggro
21 pts Death Shadow Zoo
21 pts Eldrazi Aggro
21 pts Death's Shadow Zoo
21 pts Eldrazi Aggro
13 of the above 60 decks are Eldrazi. 10 are Affinity. 10 are a form of Zoo/Burn. 6 are infect. 5 are a form of Collected Chord combo. 4 are Valakut combo. There are smatterings of decks like Jund, Junk, Elves, Lantern Control, Grixis Delver, Blue Moon, Ad Nauseum, and UWr Kiki. This is what we need to look at when we decide to overreact to 6 Eldrazi decks in the top 8. Reid Duke nearly made Top 8 with his Jund incarnation, using Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet. This is exciting. Junk appeared once, although I'm unsure if this is because it was over-matched or if it was just not played in favor of different decks. Affinity is making a resurgence. Infect is gaining popularity. I would suggest that, although Eldrazi decks are fast, the format as a whole is just fine. What we need to remember is that the Top 8 does not define the meta-game or format.
In the next months, players will look to cards that will help their match-up with Eldrazi. In doing so, Eldrazi will begin to taper off, still putting up solid results, but nowhere near the level of this Pro Tour. Already, groups are looking (and have found) cards that help defeat the eldrazi giant. Cards such as Dismember, Vampire Hexmage, Torpor Orb, Ratchet Bomb, Painter's Servant, Ensnaring Bridge, Blood Moon, etc.
Thus ends my first article. I apologize if I've rambled, but it's been awhile since I've transcribed my thoughts (and feelings) into (somewhat) cohesive sentences. Please feel free to counter my arguments and present your own theories. Please be respectful, and if you managed to read all of this, thank you! I look forward to writing more in the future if the community enjoys reading my article.
Raises Flame Shield
The.End.
I am also on zooicide, and am building pilli-pala combo. I do like the idea of a combo deck like pilli pala, and it seems better now that eldrazi is moving away from discard. However, my main issue is how badly we get destroyed by gut shot. That card is insane and here isn't much we can do about it. Otherwise, it can outrace eldrazi and my personal build actually has quite a bit of late game power to it.
February 12, 2016 8:35 p.m.
Pili-Pala combo was just one example. yeah it's kind of weak to gut shot. other decks like heartless summoning combo, grishoalhoard, etc. exist though, and unless eldrazi cools it a bit and comes off of its heavily linear base, those kinds of deck will (with some refinement) make mince meat out of it. For pili pala combo specifically though, I'm liking Myr Superion in that deck, which eldrazi decks don't seem to be too happy about so far, so there is still potential even with gut shot being a thing for that list.
February 12, 2016 8:45 p.m.
I see where the deck is going but I don't think it's better than your original. I don't think glottering wish is worth it, you've only got 8 spells you want to flashback with snapcaster, and I don't really think myr superion could work: is rather just be playing another pilli-Pala tutor.
February 12, 2016 10:15 p.m.
Fair enough. I'm honestly just making variants left and right to determine what might be best and the bant version is really a Vorthos deck at heart. This isn't a thread about Pili-Pala combo though so I will drop the deck specific discussion there.
More to the point, are there any other extremely fast combos that are weak to disruption that might prove useful against the new eldrazi decks?
February 12, 2016 10:50 p.m.
I mean, omnarscience is awesome but was extremely awful against any counterspells or hand disruption. With no one in the format playing control, it's possible that deck might be okay? I don't know, but it is faster than grishoalbrand and more resilient to removal, since narset is hexproof.
February 13, 2016 12:17 p.m.
Troy242621 says... #7
@DuTogira I'd argue that tier 1.5 and sometimes tier 2 decks are perfectly viable at FNM, where restrictions certainly do matter.
I guess my point is, what exactly do you define as casual?
DrFunk27 says... #1
DuTogira I agree. I'm currently on Zooicide because it can win T3/T4 easily.
February 12, 2016 6:28 p.m.