Ugin, the spirit dragon presale... Worth it?
Economics forum
Posted on Dec. 27, 2014, 12:14 a.m. by saj0219
So, I have an opportunity to buy a Ugin, the Spirit Dragon for just under $30 presale... I'm new to the whole economics of magic and was wondering what more experienced people thought: is it a worthwhile investment at $30 or do you think the price will drop post release? My brother in law was speculating that the card could reach $100+, but that seems crazy... Right?
Servo_Token says... #3
Scratch that part of just 12 post and tron wanting him, MUD could also make use of him, and both tron variants could potentially have a field day. So 4 decks.
December 27, 2014 12:24 a.m.
aeonstoremyliver says... #4
To play the devil's advocate, Karn Liberated sees play in 
/
Tron, one deck, and has a hefty price tag.
December 27, 2014 12:27 a.m.
I'm with ThatBlueMage. Unless this thing breaks hard, it's not going to demand big prices. Remember Garruk, Apex Predator? This guy's a lot like Ugin. They're both high-costing walkers with impressive abilities but less than stellar functionality. This guy's probably going to drop but will only do so slowly. Don't expect to pick him up for $5 in six months. He looks appetizing and flavorful enough that people will want to experiment with him for a bit.
December 27, 2014 12:30 a.m.
TheAnnihilator says... #6
But.. but.. Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is colorless... Apex Predator is not.
Seriously, though, I'd say no. Don't buy yet. $30 is just too high for him.
Then again, I think he could find a place in U/B Control in Standard. And the support in EDH is quite large, plus Tron and the like. I don't know. I hope this isn't another Karn.
December 27, 2014 12:44 a.m.
ducttapedeckbox says... #7
He probably will see a decent amount of play in mono-blue Tron builds, some play in Standard, and show up about as much as Bolas or Karn does in EDH. I wouldn't expect him to tank in price anytime soon, nor would I expect him to skyrocket. I'd say he'll be in the $20-30 range for a while, and then end up closer to the lower end after the hype dies down. That's mostly a baseless claim though.
December 27, 2014 12:45 a.m.
I feel like control is really going to try to make use of him. They're already playing for the late game and depending on the version of control use Pearl Lake Ancient as a finisher. He's a repeatable 3 points of damage and the turn you play him you can -6 him to blow up the board (unless colorless/arftifact decks become big), because 6 hits almost everything relevant and you get to keep him around. His ultimate is even obtainable and while control may not be putting 7 permanents into play drawing seven cards would be huge that late in the game. There are tons of relevant counters and removal for control, a legitimate finisher is something they're looking for and if they can get him into play and actually protect him with their counter spells then it could really be something they need. Unless the rest of the meta makes some big changes with the next set I think Ugin has potential to see some play in standard (and EDH) even at 8 mana. The rest of the meta would have to speed up or just be overly prepared to deal with it for it to not see play, IMO.
December 27, 2014 12:46 a.m.
CrazyLittleGuy says... #9
@abenz419 The reason Pearl Lake Ancient is a finisher for control though is because of his ability to dodge kill spells. When you only run a small handful of cards that can actually win you the game, you want them to stick. So Ugin doesn't actually seem like a great finisher to me, when you would have to wait until turn 11 to play him with Dissolve backup and then he still just dies to double Hero's Downfall. He might be okay as another Perilous Vault that, alternatively, can win you the game, but trusting him as your only wincon seems like a shaky plan.
December 27, 2014 1:20 a.m.
He won't get anywhere near 100$ honestly. He's good but not JTMS level good. My feelings are simple. If you have an idea in mind with him, and will actively play him from the get-go, then yea jump on it. I feel like the hype surrounding him will make paying 30 for him now a good deal if you want him right away. If you don't intend to play him, don't bother. He won't keep the price for long, and unless you actively want to use him, it's not worth it.
December 27, 2014 1:21 a.m.
I see him hovering between 8-15 during standard life depending on decks and assuming no massive surges, but longterm he could hit 30 or more if tron likes him. If not, I'd say 8ish longterm.
December 27, 2014 1:38 a.m.
Presale prices always go down soon after the card's release. I can think of ONE exception, and that was Jace TMS.
$30 is somewhat reasonable but I think Ugin will probably settle more around $20 unless someone manages to really break the card and does well in a big tournament.
Personally I would wait, but if you can afford it then $30 probably isn't the worst price to grab Ugin at.
December 27, 2014 1:39 a.m.
notamardybum says... #13
if you really want to play him i would jump on it. it will be a very sought after card. can go in every edh deck. will be played all over standard as well. i can see this card going $55+ for a year before it drops to $20
December 27, 2014 2:05 a.m.
Hjaltrohir says... #14
Don't buy him now, you will get him for probably ~10 bucks in a while so I wouldn't waste the money...
December 27, 2014 5:17 a.m.
He will not stay high. Karen is playable because the tron lands happen to generate 7 mana on turn 3. Ugin is not playable because he costs 8 mana. That 1 extra is actually a big deal. (Talking about modern).
I imagine the same is true for vintage and legacy but unsure there.
December 27, 2014 5:42 a.m.
JakeHarlow says... #16
Yeah, $30 for Ugin is pretty much a terrible deal. If he cost 
, I wouldn't be saying that...but after experimenters finish with him for Standard, he will probably sit at $8. Maybe $11.
December 27, 2014 9:10 a.m.
Yeah I would like to point out that Sorin, Solemn Visitor and Sarkhan were like 15-20 bucks preorder and on the night of the prerelease. Then they both shot up to 40-50 for a time. If you plan on playing him right out the gate then 30 a card isn't a bad price. If you plan on trying to sell or trade within the first 2 weeks of release, ditto. You probably won't loose and might win. If you just want a good price and don't mind waiting then the odds are on your side that the price will drop significantly within a few months of him being on the market.
December 27, 2014 9:50 a.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #18
I want a foil one.
Chief Engineer could make for an effective way to cheat him into play.
December 27, 2014 10:20 a.m.
APPLE01DOJ: How, and in what format? He himself is not an artifact, so you cannot cheat him in that way (colorless does not an artifact make) and unless I am missing something in Standard we don't have a ton of artifact mana acceleration available. Now EDH and other formats, you betcha, but not Standard...that I am aware of.
December 27, 2014 10:39 a.m.
Ugin is definitely wanted in U Tron. He shuts down the board almost completely. Although his +2 can't kill many Goyfs, he can -2 and clear them all. He just straight up beats UR Delver, since he can -0 and kill off all their flipped Delvers and Young Pyromancer tokens.
December 27, 2014 11:16 a.m.
I'll definitely be picking up a couple foils just incase but probably won't keep any to play. It looks extremely powerful but that one extra mana cost over Karn Liberated might be what kills it's value. I think from a collector standpoint that it will be a popular card regardless of its overall playability simply because it's a colorless Dragon (or spirit of a dragon whatever) and the foils may have a decent value in the end. I'm still trying to figure out how Dack Fayden is about $22 but the foil is $275, I'm guessing Ugin, the Spirit Dragon could see something like that just not so extreme.
December 27, 2014 11:36 a.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #22
DrLitebur I had to RTFC on Chief Engineer For some reason I was thinking he gave artifacts the ability to tap to pay for spells. Didn't catch that the convoke could only be used for Artifact spells.
December 27, 2014 11:47 a.m.
ZooGambler says... #23
Because it's a Dragon, Planeswalker it will be sought after for collections even after rotation. I can't speak on formats other than Standard but people are hyping this card up. It'll get tested in control decks as their finisher and I believe some type of black control will pop up as Crux of Fate will be the sweeper UB has been missing making Ugin a high demand card for the initial deck testing periods. But, to play devils advocate, most things you want to burn away as control will need to be burned early against aggro decks.
By the time Ugin comes online, it's too late for the +2 to be relevant. The -X will also come out later than really needed a 4 mana sweeper is where control wants to be. You may argue that Perilous Vault comes out at 9 mana but the thing is, it clears sooner than Ugin can. Colorless dodges it (Hello morph, you just got a little better) but we don't know if colorless will become a deck right now depending on that, Ugin can get worse. His -10 is a Sphinx's Rev for 7 yes but still requires 2 turns before you can activate it and if you're at T10-11 you should be fairly stable as is and comes much slower also and Sphinx's Rev was used as a stabilizer and could be cast for any number making it extremely versatile. Individually, each of the abilities are really really good. Amazing in fact but I think they may come out too little too late.
(This is all speculation!!)
That all being said as some have stating earlier grabbing it at $30 isn't necessarily a bad deal if you plan on dumping within the first 1-2 weeks. But as hype dies down I could see it stable at $15-20 Control will only play 1 maybe 2. Collectors and people in general love dragons. The thing I'd go for are the foils, Ugin will be a highly sought after foil because that is where the collectors are and they're willing to pay a little extra for a Foil Colorless Dragon Planeswalker. Who wouldn't?
December 27, 2014 12:08 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #24
ZooGambler haha I was already brewing mono black control for standard... The Mutilates are Crux of Fates. Need to fit some Dragon in now...
December 27, 2014 12:27 p.m.
Dude just saying, the foil on this card has got to look AWESOMEtacular
December 27, 2014 1:15 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #26
Right. I was thinking of buying a Box, if it's 50-70$ (settled price) I'll just buy the Foil. If it's going to be triple digits I might just have to crack a box or 2 though & maybe I'll get lucky (yeah right)
December 27, 2014 2:17 p.m.
ZooGambler says... #27
APPLE01DOJ I'm going to try and make a BUG control just because I really really want to make Sagu Mauler work haha your deck looks real solid though.
December 27, 2014 2:34 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #28
It deff needs some testing and refining put into it.
I like Sagu Mauler too
Sultai Whip runs it.
December 27, 2014 5:20 p.m.
The more I think about it the more I want to hoard a few of these, probably 2 or 3 to play with and as many foils as I can snag easily. I have a feeling this walker may surprise people as far as value goes and hopefully it'll give standard control a breath of life.
December 30, 2014 12:06 p.m.
I'd say like Karn, he'll drop to 13 to 20, and then go back up as Modern Grows, and Standard Rotates, and he's more powerful with the current cards. Or, if more powerful things come out, which is very likely with this completely broken set, it drops immensely!
December 30, 2014 12:34 p.m.
He's not modern playable - he won't be worth anything post rotation. Modern casts karn T3 due to tron lands generating 7 mana then, but they can't do that for this, this makes it unplayable.
December 30, 2014 1:57 p.m.
I don't know I would go as far as unplayable... for mono blue tron I feel like I would take Ugin over Oblivion Stone which can be seen in alot of lists. 8 mana does look a bit janky I still feel like a reusable Pernicious Deed could be worth it. Especially in a lists that are running Talisman of Dominance already making the mana difference lower impact.
December 30, 2014 7:37 p.m.
Yeah its hard to imagine that nobody will find a home for this in a competitive modern but even if it's not modren playable it will be EDH playable, it's highly collectable and I wouldn't underestimate the casual crowd helping it gain/hold long term value.
December 30, 2014 8:11 p.m.
Then again, I thought Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver would have been a much more used walker too.
December 30, 2014 8:26 p.m.
aeonstoremyliver says... #35
I'm curious to test Ugin in 12 Post. Could be interesting.
December 31, 2014 2:06 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #36
I'm hella excited to see the rest of the dragons. Undead rotting zombie dragon. I'd love to see a Dragon Hatchling kind of card too.
Whose willing to bet Golgari dragon is the last spoiled?
December 31, 2014 2:14 p.m.
with any of the talismans modern tron decks run this guy is definitely playable on turn 3.
but his real value will be if he sees play in legacy 12post / edh...in which case foils will be huge value.
if the posts get unbanned in modern, this guy will be bananas too
December 31, 2014 4:57 p.m.
Ugin preorders have already dropped from $30 to $25. He might sink faster than anticipated, barring good synergistic spoilers from Fate Reforged.
December 31, 2014 6:09 p.m.
PreZchoICE1 says... #40
If you want to make an 'investment' buy them in foil. I think it will see play in standard as well tbvh, so thats 4 formats that will want him.
January 2, 2015 5:26 p.m.
Considering that there is a black that can smuggle him in early he will skyrocket. Expect him to hit around $70 then near core be back at $30. He should end up at roughly $20 and stay there til he leaves standard, when they quit making the sets.
Servo_Token says... #2
No. Planeswalker presales are a joke. The presale is often their peak price, except in very fringe cases where the walker is just broken. I don't think that Ugin is the slightest bit broken, and can't see him hitting anything higher than $30 in his life unless he becomes the top card of 12 post, and 12 post becomes a huge deck to play in Legacy.
The circumstances here just don't lead to this thing being a top dollar card. The only non standard things that could want him are 12 post, tron, and EDH. The decks aren't the most popular things to play in either of their formats, and EDH only needs one copy, which won't drive the price on this thing at all.
Taking into consideration the amount of packs of FRF that will be opened (Speculating roughly 2/3 the amount of Khans packs opened), it's very unlikely that the demand for this thing will outweigh the supply in the next 5 or even 10 years.
December 27, 2014 12:22 a.m.