Can a math genius help me with my manabase?
Modern forum
Posted on March 31, 2019, 8:01 a.m. by Vman
Hi! I know the math is possible, its just im godawful at it myself.
So im running the following
4x Mox Opal 4x Springleaf Drum As artifact rainbow mana producers
4x Spire of Industry As my rainbow land 4x Darksteel Citadel 4x Blinkmoth Nexus As my colorless lands
And finally 1x Mountain And 4x Plains As basics.
Can any math wiz do the odds on my average % chanfe on getting 2 white mana on turn 2 or more importantly turn 3? I need WW.
Also what if i go down in plains? How much worse does it get.
Oloro_Magic says... #3
So, not accounting for if you can turn on the Mox Opal and Springleaf Drum , and assuming you do not play a cantrip turn one you have about a 69% to have two or more white sources in the top 8 cards, if on the draw that increases to 76%. Again though this assumes that you are not cantripping and have the means to turn on the artifact mana.
March 31, 2019 9:15 a.m.
SeekerofSecrets says... #4
Oloro_Magic was correct with the 76% with your current set up!
I typically use this hypergeometric calculator to fine tune mana bases.
Out of curiosity why aren't you using Battlefield Forge ?
March 31, 2019 9:47 a.m.
The numbers that the article provides take mulligans I to account, so they are better.
Using a hypergeometrical calculator can give you a basic understanding on how your mana base works but I would alswys use this article because it's numbers are closer to reality
March 31, 2019 10:01 a.m.
Oloro_Magic says... #6
I echo what Lukas has to say here, the calculator will give you the bare minimum information you require but someone took the time over at CF to account for variables which the calculator doesn't do.
March 31, 2019 11:54 a.m.
WizardOfTheNorthernCoast says... #8
Vman so, will you let us know how your Tempered Steel build is working? ;)
I can only assume that's why you'd want WW T3 so much. I've tried the card myself but never really got to something satisfying :/
April 1, 2019 5:36 a.m.
WizardOfTheNorthernCoast its actually super good. Went 5-0 in a pretty decent event recently. The main advantage of t.steel is it doesnt scoop to Stony Silence as hard as affinity usually does and it puts Ornithopter out of burn range.
lukas96 says... #2
You have 16 white sources. This gives you a propability of 77% to have WW on t2 and 88% on t3.
There is a very useful article that does the math for you in this case.
https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/how-many-colored-mana-sources-do-you-need-to-consistently-cast-your-spells-a-guilds-of-ravnica-update/
March 31, 2019 9:10 a.m.