What are the odds?
General forum
Posted on Aug. 8, 2013, 9:20 a.m. by ZarBluestar
I was wondering the odds of pulling certain cards. If I were to buy a deck builder's kit (m14), what is the odds that a planeswalker is included? Also, what is the odds of pulling a Kalonian Hydra in a booster pack.
The reason I ask is because my parents would never let me spend so much money on a single card and I was wondering the odds of getting it without buying singles.
ZarBluestar says... #3
TurboFagoot I have the money, but I'm not able to buy singles. It Sucks!
August 8, 2013 9:26 a.m.
NobodyPicksBulbasaur says... #4
Deck Builder's Kits are full of commons and uncommons to help make a card-base for the person who buys it. They don't have rare cards in them, so there is a 0% chance of pulling a Planeswalker.
The chance of pulling any given rare depends on the size of the set, and whether or not the rares in the set are printed in equal quantities.
Kalonian Hydra is a mythic rare card, making it even harder to find. Any given booster pack has a 1/8 shot of containing a mythic rare instead of a rare.
There are 15 mythic rares in M14, so your chances of pulling a Hydra (theoretically) are
1/8 * 1/15 = 1/120.
Out of every 120 boosters you open, you should find an average of one Kalonian Hydra
August 8, 2013 9:28 a.m.
That was a...let's say "concise"...comment, but it's right on the mark. The chances of you being able to pull out a particular Mythic Rare from a pack make it much more expensive to acquire it via opening boosters than it would be to just buy it outright.
That's not to discourage you from buying boosters if you don't already have a good foundation of cards, because they'd help you build one. But if you're just looking for a particular rare/mythic, it's not a cost-effective way to go.
Even with uncommons, you're only likely to get a set of four out of an entire booster box if it's a small set like Dragon's Maze (as opposed to a large set like M14 or the other two RTR sets). If you're looking for a particular rare, you might get one and would be very lucky to get two (unless the two you get are Trait Doctoring or Possibility Storm , of which I got two of each when I opened my DGM box). If you're looking for a particular mythic, the chances are good that you wouldn't even get one out of an entire box.
August 8, 2013 9:29 a.m.
NobodyPicksBulbasaur says... #6
In general it is always cheaper to buy singles than it is to buy booster packs hoping for specific cards. There's always someone out there who opened some ridiculous pack with 3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor in it, but that guy is offset a thousandfold by the people who only ever pull cards like Pyromancer's Gauntlet .
You can either spend $26 now for a Hydra, or you can spend up to $480 on booster packs hoping you pull one. (And even then you're still not guaranteed to pull one)
August 8, 2013 9:32 a.m.
The chances are very slightly higher than what landgrafb cites because there's a tiny chance that you could get what you want as a foil (and therefore not use the rare slot of the booster), but that's so minuscule that basically he's right on the money.
ZarBluestar, I don't know what the reason is why you aren't allowed to buy singles, but explaining that on average you'd have to spend like $300 on boosters to get a single Kalonian Hydra that's worth about $25 might make a difference. Maybe?
August 8, 2013 9:34 a.m.
ZarBluestar says... #8
my friend managed to pull a Jace, Memory Adept in a deck builder's kit. I think he cheated.
August 8, 2013 9:47 a.m.
hey, theres people here who thinks Pyromancer's Gauntlet is a good card you know....
August 8, 2013 9:58 a.m.
Rhadamanthus says... #10
Though you should expect to end up shelling out more money on boosters than it would cost to buy the card as a single, remember that you're also getting other things in those boosters that you can use as trade value for the card you really want. You'll also probably get several other cards you want to play with. If laying down a wad of cash on a single card is frowned upon, then just stick to booster packs and work your way up to it.
August 8, 2013 10:04 a.m.
RainingMammoths says... #11
Build a deck without it, buy a few boosters here and there looking for it.
$25 for one card? That's a half a tank of gas man. :O
August 8, 2013 10:05 a.m.
Keep in mind that a Deckbuilder's kit includes a few boosters from recent sets, so you can indeed pull planeswalkers from deckbuilder kits.
August 8, 2013 10:07 a.m.
Playing budget cards is also perfectly acceptable. If your friends have opened powerful planeswalkers, you can still beat them just by having a synergist aggro or combo deck. Lots of decks on this site are budget - see Trolling With Young Pyro Budget.
Also, if you can't buy expensive cards, you can still trade for them.
August 8, 2013 10:15 a.m.
There's always ebay :) its never a garuntee but I've been able to get deals like Batterskull $15 for $6.50, Bloodstained Mire $45 for $30, foil 7th Counterspell $25 for $10, revised Wrath of God $10 for $3.50... I can keep going but you get the point. It wont build your card base like boosters will but it is a cheaper alternative to retail more times than not...
August 8, 2013 10:17 a.m.
My suggestion... buy a box...then at FNM trade the packs for cards, valued at 3.50 a pack...for some reason people go nuts for opening packs.
If you trade say 9 for a hydra...pay attention, if they pull 9 junk rares you're probably better off opening the rest yourself.
August 8, 2013 11:09 a.m.
the3rdH0kage says... #16
I've pulled a Mythic in every DBT I have bought since M11. In the M1 one I think it was Sorin Markov , in M12 it was Elspeth Tirel and M13 it was Avacyn, Angel of Hope . So it isn't inpossible to get a Mythic it is pretty unlikely though. But I wasn't hunting for Mythics, I just needed the Commons/Uncommonsfor deckbuilding.
August 8, 2013 11:38 a.m.
i would suggest as Panda213 said i a lot easier to order it online if you are looking for Mythics IMO get the money and ask someone to buy it online for you
August 8, 2013 11:46 a.m.
wallshadow117 says... #18
Gather 'round the campfire ZarBluestar and i'll tell you a story.
Not so long ago there was a mythic rare card called Thundermaw Hellkite . This one card alone cost $28.00 at the high point of his release (non foil). I bought 2 boxes looking for this card thinking that if I got even one, I had still made a deal out of the box. I did not get the card I needed from the box, and while getting a few good cards, I didn't get anything I really needed. Time passed by and eventually the cards price dropped down to about $12.00 which I finally decided was worth parting with to get the card.
Judging by some of the comments a lot of people have similar- tragic- stories. Most collectors and players learn the best way to get cards like these is to wait until they drop in price and just buy packs in the meantime for luck. You may even pull something you can trade for it in the packs.
August 8, 2013 12:17 p.m.
Cyber Locc says... #19
Just buy them on ebay or amazon. If you want boosters buy fat packs and boxs, boxs are better as your pretty much guaranteed to pull at least 1 mythic. Dont buy single packs as the odds are worse and box mapping is a big issue
August 8, 2013 2:24 p.m.
Little off topic but the first pack I ever opened had a Thundermaw Hellkite in it:P
September 30, 2013 3:55 p.m.
There is a chance it could happen, but, generally, you'll be wasting more money than the single card is worth by buying a box or booster and trying to hope for the best. Granted, if you're like me and simply enjoy buying boosters for the additional cards and are pleasantly surprised to find some good mythics and foil mythics, then it might not be too bad.The chances of getting a specific card though? Rather low.
landgrafb isn't entirely correct when he says there is no possibility of getting mythics or rares in a deckbuilder's toolkit though, since these do come with at least three booster packs. I've pulled an Ajani, Caller of the Pride and foil Sublime Archangel from a booster that was inside a DeckBuilder's toolkit.
September 30, 2013 4:16 p.m.
HarbingerJK says... #22
Buy a box of M14, your chances will be better for pulling one lol
September 30, 2013 4:19 p.m.
HarbingerJK: That is true, but, with the prices of booster boxes, the money could be better spent actually buying Kalonian Hydra
September 30, 2013 4:31 p.m.
HarbingerJK says... #24
@iBryguy that's ZarBluestar's problem though, he can't spend the money on one card
September 30, 2013 4:41 p.m.
I highly recommend www.magictraders.com . Trading is one of the most cost effective ways to get your money cards. I coincidentally just traded some of my cards for a Kalonian Hydra , so there are users there with the cards you need.
TurboFagoot says... #2
Get a job and save up, man.
August 8, 2013 9:24 a.m.