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Turn 3 Goblins (60%+ Turn 3 win rate)

Modern Aggro Combo Goblins

medrage

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Creature (32)

Land (16)

Instant (4)

Sorcery (8)

This deck was built with math. Based on thousands of hours of research - I believe it's the fastest aggro deck in modern. Suicide Shadow and infect are in the same realm, but they are more combo than aggro.

It's built in 75% of the normal goblins shell. With the cards that hinder a turn 3 kill ripped out; and the cards that help a turn 3 kill put in.

Removed are:

Goblin Chieftain

Mogg War Marshal

Mogg Fanatic

All of these hurt the decks turn 3 chances.

I've replaced them with:

Fury of the Horde

Chancellor of the Forge

Burning-Tree Emissary

All of these help the decks turn 3 chances.

I crunched 100 goldfish games in yesterday and kept track of the results. They are pretty on-point with my math for the deck.

1 Turn 2 Wins

63 Turn 3 Wins

36 Non-Turn 3 Wins

As for lands. By turn 3 I drew:

0 - 2 times (0% Turn 3 Win Rate)

1 - 10 times (33% Turn 3 Win Rate)

2 - 31 times (81% Turn 3 Win Rate)

3 - 33 times (78% Turn 3 Win Rate)

4 - 16 times (22% Turn 3 Win Rate)

5 - 7 times (0% Turn 3 Win Rate)

7 - 1 time (0% Turn 3 Win Rate)

So, getting 2-3 mana by turn 3 is optimal. Any more or any less and our turn 3 success rate drops significantly.

I also kept track of what cards contributed most to the win (meaning i determined that without them - i would not have won on turn 3):

  1. Fury of the Horde - 38 of the 64

  2. Goblin Bushwhacker - 36 of the 64

  3. Chancellor of the Forge - 31 of the 64

  4. Goblin Piledriver - 26 of the 64

  5. Goblin Grenade - 13 of the 64

The rest are all in the 7-10 range except for lightning bolt (1 of the 64) and legion loyalist (3 of the 64). But they are probably necessary because of their utility.

Note: I noticed - that a combo of 2-3 of the above - almost always resulted in a win.

If you're going to make a suggestion, the only creatures that I will consider cutting are:

  1. Burning-Tree Emissary

  2. Legion Loyalist (it must be replaced with another goblins.)

And the only spell I'll consider cutting:

  1. Lightning Bolt.

All of these must be replaced with free, 1 or 2 casting cost spells and "should" be considered red cards.

I'm currently running no sideboard, and am well over a win rate of 50% on MTGO.

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