Card Rarity Probability
General forum
Posted on May 8, 2013, 9:48 p.m. by PureSteel
I usually don't buy sealed magic products due to the magnitude of my unluckiness, in fact, the last time i brought so much as a booster (not including sanctioned events) was during Rise of the Eldrazi
however on a whim today, i picked up a Dragon's Maze fat pack after a friend of mine bought one. i pulled:
1 foil Voice of Resurgence
along with some other great rares. I was wondering if wizards has increased the probability of mythics recently. I would also like to hear other accounts of great pulls.
hollandboys says... #3
It really seems easier to pull money cards lately. Both my friend and I pulled Ral Zarek in our first DGM booster, and my buddy pulled a foil Ral in his box
May 8, 2013 10:20 p.m.
http404error says... #5
Well, getting a Mythic is still 1 in 8 packs. In the interest of Maths, lets run some approximate figures. Note that there's a lot I'm not accounting for and there's a lot of guesswork. I might even flub something up big time, but here goes.
We have 70 combinations of getting at least 3 Mythics out of nine packs. Each individual combination has odds of (1/8) * (1/8) * (1/8), or 1 in 596. That gives us 70/596, or an
11.7%
chance of pulling at least 3 Mythics from among 9 packs. Not bad. But...
Then there's a foil. Foils are in about 1 in 4 packs, and the odds of any given card being Mythic are about 1 in 120 (1 in 15 cards is rare, 1 in 8 rares is mythic). The odds of getting a foil Mythic in any given pack is roughly 1 in 480. With 9 packs, that gives us simply 9 in 480, or:
1.875%.
All in all, both events occurring at the same time give an estimated percentage odds of 0.117 * 0.01875 or a 0.22% chance of matching or beating your pull (purely going by number of Mythics). That's about:
1 in 454
No, Wizards hasn't made Mythics any less rare than ever. Yes, you are extremely lucky. Clearly, they knew you were lapsing from sealed product and conspired to set you up with a sweet pull to drag you back in.
Good luck and happy pack cracking!
May 8, 2013 10:51 p.m.
Yea, that foil voice is sitting in the front page of my collection binder. And http404error, that's pretty epic and makes me feel even better seeing the numbers. I also finished my finals yesterday, rounding off my first year of college, perhaps its connected O.O
May 8, 2013 10:58 p.m.
....and about the Ral Zarek
I pulled one today
And there are 4 around my place counting this one, the funny part, only 4 boxes have been opened so far LOL
May 8, 2013 11 p.m.
I don't know if the probability is up but in the last 48 hours I have pulled Voice of Resurgence , Ral Zarek , Master of Cruelties , 2xAEtherling , most of the guild champs, Progenitor Mimic , and Advent of the Wurm . Considering I bought a whole bunch of packs, I really only pulled a few rares not worth mentioning. Dragon's maze has been good to me so far.
My son has pulled 2 Voice of Resurgence , Advent of the Wurm , and Master of Cruelties with Watery Grave just today from the same Fat Pack.
May 8, 2013 11:43 p.m.
I dont want to hear this, bought 2 boxes no ral zarek or voice...... I pulled one shock land with breeding pool..... never been so dissapointed in my life
May 8, 2013 11:47 p.m.
That's a rough story! You must have bought the worst two boxes that were printed, man. I feel like WotC owes you a big "I'm sorry". I bought 2 boxes of Gatecrash and didn't pull what I wanted, though. My big mythic was Gideon and Aurelia's Fury, which lost their value shortly after, so I guess the luck comes Nd goes. I always have great luck buying single packs, though.
May 8, 2013 11:52 p.m.
yahh ...... no kidding DePeluche I have never had sucha bad box in my life... GTC i pulled one of each land, giddeon, domri and foil stomping ground then I go to DGM and that happens -_- FML
May 8, 2013 11:54 p.m.
yea the way i see it, I'd get more use out of buying a playset of Dark Confidant than a box of ravnica (currently $500) and hope to pull even one. Thats why I've always bought singles as opposed to the chance of pulling cards. Sure there is fun in not knowing, but since i play primarily modern it makes financially more sense in buying singles.
May 9, 2013 1:50 a.m.
smash10101 says... #14
I got two rals, two shocks, a notion thief or 2, 2 or 3 sires of insanity, a master of cruelties, and a few more mythics and maze runners in my box, over all I was quite happy
May 9, 2013 1:53 a.m.
I'm pretty sure fat packs have better odds. Think about it. Wizards makes money mostly off of packs. Newbies buy packs, but only if they're lucky. What does every beginner buy? A fat pack, or deckbuilder's toolbox. So if I were Wizards, I'd stack the odds, and get them hooked.
I'm also absolutely terrible with packs.
May 9, 2013 2:34 a.m.
I have most of my luck on packs, which is simply luck because there is no trick to it for me. My RtR fat pack sucked (only useful thing was a Mizzium Mortars ). My Gatecrash fat pack yielded Prime Speaker Zegana and Stomping Ground , so that was better. I haven't grabbed a DGM fat pack yet but my packs have been very generous, but as mentioned above ,y son's fat pack yielded amazing pulls so I think DGM is just a set that has good stuff that isn't impossible to pull. All my power cards come from packs and trades, though. Happy pulls to all!!!
May 9, 2013 8:01 a.m.
Well... if the chance of getting a Mythic is still 1 in 8, then a lot of people out there are only getting 0-2 Mythics per box.
With 32 boosters in a box, it should average out to 4 Mythics per box.
At my LGS not one person I have spoken to has opened a box containing less than 5... most are 6-7 a few with 8, and one with 9... and that's not including Maze's (Though I believe the 9 may have included a Maze).
Even ignoring a few foils that also should not count towards the 1 in 8, it's still quite high.
I personally have opened 2 boxes and each contained 5 Mythics + one Maze, no Foil Mythics.
Perhaps my LGS is just getting lucky... but that means somewhere out there, there's an LGS that keeps getting 0-2 Mythics per box.
May 9, 2013 9:09 a.m.
http404error says... #18
Booster boxes are 36 packs, but yeah, that's rather odd. Perhaps there's something we're not accounting for. My probability is rusty.
May 9, 2013 10:04 a.m.
Fun Fact:
When I win booster packs at FNM or any other Tourney I always..... ALWAYS pull the worst cards in the stupid expansion
When I buy 4 or more boosters in one shot, I always get a Mythic or 2 and usually 2 of the rares are good without counting the uncommons or commons
May 9, 2013 10:26 a.m.
My first opened DGM booster on prerelease event contained:
1 foil Progenitor Mimic
All in single pack.
May 9, 2013 10:36 a.m.
DePeluche: I have terrible luck pulling good cards at tournaments, too. Out of all the good cards that could be useful from DGM, I pull Trait Doctoring . Maybe this is good somewhere, but not in limited.
cartwheelnurd says... #2
a foil voice! I'd hold on to that one if i were you.
Maybe you just got lucky. I haven't heard of them upping the mythic probability.
May 8, 2013 10:06 p.m.