What box to get?
Economics forum
Posted on Nov. 25, 2015, 4:55 p.m. by ShamaLamaDingDong
So I'm getting a box, and I am conflicted on what to get. I'm thinking of Khans for the fetches, but is it worth it? Thanks in advance.
Epochalyptik says... #3
Are you looking for suggestions based on value or based on something else?
November 25, 2015 5:01 p.m.
idk actually its pretty sound to buy a khans box 5 fecthes make the price and are an average
November 25, 2015 5:09 p.m.
If you're drafting, then KTK. If you want value, then also KTK.
November 25, 2015 5:13 p.m.
Khans. You will most likely get 2-fetchlands, which is where the value is. There is not that much value in the other sets.
November 25, 2015 5:37 p.m.
ToolmasterOfBrainerd says... #7
I dunno. Dragons is pretty okay.
But as Epoch said, what is your reasoning in buying a box? You can also wait until Oath comes out and pray that that's where wizards put all of the good cards from BFZ.
November 25, 2015 5:42 p.m.
EmblemMan: in what universe are you averaging 5 fetches per box? I cracked 3 or 4 boxes and the most I ever got in a single one was 3. The problem with Khans is that its been so heavily opened that everything else in the set besides the fetches is extremely cheap. Basically, its fetch or bust, which isn't great.
November 25, 2015 6:22 p.m.
In every universe every box I opened and my friends opened and boxes I have seen people open averaged 5 fetches
November 25, 2015 6:23 p.m.
JohnnyBaggins says... #10
Khans is value, Khans is fun to draft... Khans!
November 25, 2015 8:29 p.m.
Havok.Bane says... #11
If it's to draft get conspiracy, if it's for value get singles.
November 25, 2015 9:59 p.m.
Innistrad to draft...but hold off on cracking any packs until the hype train on Shadows Over Innistrad reaches maximum speed! :-)
+1 with everyone who's said singles all the way, for value.
And at the risk of getting the thread bumped over to the financial forums, MTGgoldfish has some really interesting analysis on the Expected Value of a box. They do the calcs using pre-release prices, but you could do some spreadsheet work and figure it out using current prices. See for example their BFZ article
November 26, 2015 12:03 a.m.
I ended up digging into this some more and stumbled across MTGstocks. They do all the spreadsheet work.
Short story:
- Dragons and Khans are almost always good value
- BFZ is 83% meh (no Expedition), 14% great (most Expeditions) and 3% amazing (blue fetchland Expedition)
- Results (obviously) vary, but the average is 3 fetches in a box of Khans
- Me? I'm drafting Innistrad :-)
Set | Expected Value of an "average" box (MTGstocks) | Market Price (TCGplayer) | Difference
BFZ | 86.35 | 89.89 | -3.54 (not counting Expeditions)
ORI | 106.56 | 93.93 | 16.67
DTK | 120.07 | 89.69 | 30.38
FRF | 85.97 | 87.58 | -1.61
KTK | 124.08 | 90.81 | 33.27
November 26, 2015 5:46 a.m.
Epochalyptik says... #15
This thread was moved to a more appropriate forum (auto-generated comment)
November 26, 2015 10:48 a.m.
I know this isn't a box, but from a single Fate Reforged fatpack I pulled a Polluted Delta and Flooded Strand. Just saying you can pull fetches from FR packs too.
And an Ugin _
November 28, 2015 7:40 a.m.
Khans for sure. Don't forget foil fetches are stupidly expensive as well (Pulled a foil Flooded Strand
)
November 28, 2015 11:21 a.m.
ShamaLamaDingDong says... #18
Yup, Derpachus. Got a box of Khans, got a foil Wooded Foothills, regular Wooded Foothills, Polluted Delta, Flooded Strand, and Windswept Heath. And a Sorin, Solemn Visitor. So I think it paid off.
November 28, 2015 6:10 p.m.
I got a box of khans to. I pulled one Windswept -.-
ojmandias says... #2
With the $100 just buy the singles you need. Its much more efficient. Unless you want to draft or just want to have the bulk, there is no point in building up the "cardboard clutter"
November 25, 2015 5 p.m.