A Question for a Modern Mill Build Running Narset Transcendent
Deck Help forum
Posted on March 7, 2015, 9:15 p.m. by Femme_Fatale
Here's the deck (click the deck name to go to the deck page for the description).
What I'm really comparing here is the differences between Breaking / Entering and Mind Funeral, and in order to do this, I need the communities input as to how many cards should Mind Funeral mill at minimum.
The reason being is because it being 3 mana has little problems with t3 and t4 plays. T3 I want to be dropping down lili. T4 is either Narset or a 2 cmc mill card followed by a counterspell. And that is IF I get the mana. Running 21 lands means putting things that are higher than 2 cmc is a little dangerous. If I were to put in Mind Funeral, it'd have to be as a 3 of, and upping the land count up to 22.
My current assessment of Mind Funeral is that it'd have to mill 3 cards more than the average 2 cmc mill card would mill for. I'm putting Breaking / Entering as the average at 8. This would mean that my criteria for the minimum amount of mill Mind Funeral must succeed in is 11. However others may think differently, and I would love to hear your opinions.
Now, I'm asking this, as I did a little data chart for Mind Funeral. I wanted to see the average amount of cards that Mind Funeral would mill in a deck with X cards. I choose 18, 22 and 25 lands.
Now a little note on the graphs before you click on them. The first column of numbers is each instance of Mind Funeral. The 2nd column of numbers is a counter of how many times Mind Funeral milled X amount of cards. The third column is much trickier to understand, and I've sectioned off each set of numbers by the first column so that it is easier to see (grouping together numbers that appear only once).
Each set has two numbers in the third column, and you basically compare the second number from one set to the first number of the set right after. The set right after would be the minimum requirement of cards Mind Funeral must mill, and the number in the third column dictates how many times that Mind Funeral passed this minimum versus the set before dictating how many times Mind Funeral did not pass this minimum. As an example, lets look at the the 18 lands section, and compare the 11 minimum with the 10 fail. We see the two numbers in the third column 23 and 27 next to each other. The 23 is how many times Mind Funeral failed to pass the 11 minimum requirement and the 27 is how many times Mind Funeral passed the 11 minimum requirement.
Now I did this in notepad, so these are going to be images (because T/O doesn't like multiple spaces side by side and I'm not spending 2 hours formatting this thing).
Thoughts?
Femme_Fatale says... #3
Oh ... Visions of Beyond ... kinda kills the idea of Narset Transcendent eh?
I don't have enough room for Ghost Quarter however. I already have 2 lands that give me colourless mana and I can't afford to lose lands in anyway in a 21 land deck that runs counterspells and discard spells.
March 7, 2015 9:52 p.m.
What if you cut some Hedron Crabs for a number of Ghost Quarter? You have 21 lands so landfall won't happen that often.
March 7, 2015 10:01 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #5
Never cut any Hedron Crabs. They themselves can mill around 9-12 cards per crab. At 1 cmc that is more than enough.
March 7, 2015 11:07 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #6
About the data, I didn't take into account extra land drops from things say like ... fetches or my own Path to Exiles. I'll take that into account another time.
March 7, 2015 11:21 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #7
If it turns out that Mind Funeral is the better option, then I'll be putting them in, upping land to 22, and put a couple of Ghost Quarters in.
March 8, 2015 12:26 a.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #8
I also forgot to say the averages of how many cards Mind Funeral milled in a deck with x amount of lands depicted in the image above.
- 18 land average is 11.08
- 22 land average is 10.00
- 25 land average is 10.45...
March 8, 2015 1:56 a.m.
Why should [Visions of Beyond] kill the idea of [Narset Transcendent]?
You don't need to -2 for Visions. Just play it to get 1-3 more good targets for your rebound ability before Narset gets killed.
aeonstoremyliver says... #2
Heck of an analysis...
Ghost Quarter is excellent. Not only does it proc Archive Trap, but it thins lands out of the opponent's deck, thereby making Mind Funeral better.
And, Visions of Beyond is too amazing not to run.
March 7, 2015 9:36 p.m.