What happens if counterfeit Magic cards are created perfectly?
General forum
Posted on Nov. 28, 2019, 5:41 a.m. by StopShot
This is a hypothetical scenario thread.
Suppose in the very near future counterfeit Magic cards flood the secondary market and these counterfeit cards are constructed perfectly so that there is no distinction between what's fake and what's real. These fake cards can pass the bend test, rip test, and any other form of detection. Most of these fake cards mainly consist of reserved list cards as there is a sudden flux of power nine cards and original dual lands for sale. What happens and how do you think it will likely play out?
(Even if you think it's impossible to create a fake card that perfectly matches a real one, presume that it has become possible just for the sake of discussion in this hypothetical scenario.)
sergiodelrio says... #3
From a philosophical standpoint, if something is indistinguishable from its "real" counterpart, it becomes de facto as "real".
November 28, 2019 10:14 a.m.
I don’t think they’d need perfect fakes. They’ll just need fakes that are difficult to prove on site in a short period of time.
If they are cards that magic has not printed in long time and are NOT on the reserved list I think that wizards will investigate and try and find whoever is doing it. But I don’t think they will have an adverse affect on tournaments or ply of any kind after 3 months of the knowledge of fakes being public.
If reserve list cards are faked then there’s going to be a lot of collectors up in arms against wizards for not protecting the value of their reserve list cards which will drop in price as more fakes are released. (Not saying this is right or wrong. Just what I think will happen). Wizards will attempt to placate but it won’t work. Legacy will be in flux as old players who had the cards are upset with their worthlessness and new players who may or may not have fake cards enter into the format that was previously unavailable to them. Depending on how fast both sides move, legacy could die.
If the fakes are of recent sets such as those currently in print, then things get bad. Wizards is now directly losing money and the investigating begins in earnest. This will be the most disrupting for events as wizards will try and enforce some way of checking legitimacy of cards. Unless there is a quick non-destructive test available then the only available options for wizards will all be bad. They will lose a lot of money on card sales, then investors. Without new money or the confidence that the next set they print won’t be faked as well they won’t be able to move forward and the game might die right there.
Or none of this could happen. This requires someone puts a massive amount of fake cards that are near impossible to detect and somehow not get caught for quite a long time. Not saying it’s impossible, just quite difficult.
November 28, 2019 11:04 a.m.
It would be glorious! Vintage and legacy would see massive influx of players.
But in all seriousness if it happened on a large enough scale it could cause the entire game to collapse
November 28, 2019 11:25 a.m.
Large scale would be bad, but EXTREMELY unlikely - sheer volume & technology involved (*See print dude's post, but involve more moving HR). Small/mid-scale to stick it to the man on the retardo reserve list.... that would indeed be glorious
November 28, 2019 10:18 p.m.
Despite the controversial nature of the Reserve list, it has helped maintain interest in Magic as a product to be invested in. A massive influx of non-detectable Reserved list fakes - Perfect Fakes - will have at least one minor positive impact - it will allow some players to enter new formats...but it isn't enough of a benefit to counteract the BIG negative long term effect of collectors and filthy investors losing confidence in the product. Which will curtail their future investments into Magic products and stock going forward.
As Magic - the product and brand - loses value it may lose it's power to continue to stand the test of time. If Perfect Fakes of Reserved list cards can be done reliably and long enough then next will be those high end luxury lotto cards and Throne of Eldrane collectors edition full art cards...everyone and everything will become an elk and nothing will be safe anymore. Perfect Fakes will cause the slow heat death of Magic - and shame on those who wish it so.
I have a question for those players excited to get those hypothetical Perfect Fake power nine cards: Do you think that getting easy access to power nine is worth magic losing value as a product? And Why?
November 29, 2019 11:31 a.m. Edited.
pizzagod13 says... #8
Assuming the cards were indistinguishable from normal ones then it would be fairly problematic for the economy of the game.
Personally thought I would be happy to be able to get expensive cards for cheaper prices but it wouldn’t be good for the longevity of the game.
November 29, 2019 2:08 p.m.
For all those excited about cheap (fake) top shelf cards...ponder this. The mouse will always eat the cheese in the trap because it doesn't understand why it's free
November 29, 2019 7:26 p.m.
Facsimiles are Simply Superior Products
https://i.postimg.cc/Yq5YXz52/real-cabal-coffers.jpg
That'll be $60 please (on TCGplayer).
https://i.postimg.cc/D0W46S5b/fake.jpg
That'll be $1.60 please.
November 29, 2019 7:43 p.m.
Haha, that's some sky-is-falling overreaction up there. I don't think we'll ever know on these theoretical's though. You do know that the bubble bursting in the other direction to price ballooning happens too right? What happens when a relic-game prices the moonage-daydream youth and new players out of a game? I'm already seeing the turnoff for my nephews when I tell them a $50 EDH deck is "cheap".
November 29, 2019 9:12 p.m.
Gleeock, I definitely hear you on that one. Precons hitting that $50 mark isn't a good thing for the health of the game over all - but we're talking about a subset of a subset of a subset of cards that are more or less directly responsible for the "investability" of magic - the cards that gain the attention of individuals who are looking at the game from a purely financial perspective.
I will however acknowledge your point that Magic does need to do something about the high price point of Commander and it's staples - lookin' at you Cyclonic Rift . But I implore you to not underestimate just how awful this fake doomsday scenario would be if Magic was suddenly awash in Perfect Fakes. Sure, some players would be happy to get those suddenly cheap powerful cards...but on the back end, behind the scenes the game will lose investment opportunities - and lots of money going forward.
December 1, 2019 9:51 a.m.
Well, it sounds like you do understand the other side of the "collector" coin. I feel like there are some differences between this game & some others & I feel that there is a little too much regard given to the investor aspect of MTG. Then again, that is a feeling & not a Macro-econ analysis. From the micro perspective I know that MTG has to be wary of the old money & "Magic: it isn't for everyone" aspect of the game. There are only so many 30-something middle-management customers out there. When you don't have new blood playing the game, well you might as well buy Steve Allen's Ultimate Pog
December 1, 2019 11:45 a.m.
Gleeock - You seem to Be focusing too much on the collectors of RL cards, and not enough on who else would be harmed. Most notably, most local game stores tend to have sizeable collections of RL cards - they’re strong investments, relatively immune to format shifts, meaning the LGS can keep them on a shelf for a long time with little risk of losing value.
As everyone knows, it is hard to be an LGS in an era where digital sellers of cards can undercut your prices. A massive drop in inventory value due to RL reprints or an influx of extremely good fakes would be devastating.
LGSes having further financial difficulties would be a disaster for the game. There will always be formats for budget Magic players (standard, brawl, etc.) - but losing one’s playing location to financial woes would be quite problematic.
And that is only one such non-collector problem resultant from these reprints. Perhaps it might be a good idea to do some more macro-analysis, rather than just use feelings to take pot-shots at one particular type of collector?
December 1, 2019 11:58 a.m.
Mayhaps. The LGS may not know it now, but they have the chance to suffer possibly more than anyone with continued price ballooning. As much as I hear this LGS-collector relationship talked up, this isn't bringing anyone new to the table, those shops need to survive month-by-month, not on the off-chance that Joe-shmo may finally come in and buy that Alpha duel after a couple month's OT pay. This isn't just RL cards, this includes a whole bunch of pet cards, oldstuff, stuff that a new player should be able to find in a bin at 12 years of age & play if they want... but It's not for everyone, whatever that business model is worth. There was a time when my local Shinders was teeming with this demographic for MTG, now not so much.
December 1, 2019 2:02 p.m.
Gleeock, by the way when you said "There are only so many 30-something middle-management customers out there. When you don't have new blood playing the game, well you might as well buy Steve Allen's Ultimate Pog" - I am that demographic, and didn't realize that I was the primary target audience. Where'd you hear that 30 something middle management is the desired target for MTG product?
December 4, 2019 11:12 a.m.
user:LVL_666
"Where'd you hear that 30 something middle management is the desired target for MTG product?"
When the barrier to entry to a playable Commander deck became $2000 of disposable income.
January 11, 2020 2:11 p.m.
What makes this hypothetical?
What makes any of you think that cards aren’t being produced by outside producers other then wotc?
Think about it, if reserved list or older more expensive cards, even new cards, where being reproduced there wouldn’t be a large influx of these cards being produced because the people counterfeiting them would want to keep the prices high.
Let’s say you counterfeit just 10 cards that all can be auctioned off for 10,000+ A piece, why would you flood the market, it would be in your best interest to keep the prices high so you can continue to auctions off these cards of a period of years, instead of losing yourself money by taking the fast money and mass printing them and getting yourself noticed
A person that’s smart enough and capable enough to make perfect copies of mtg card, isn’t going to be dumb enough to draw that amount of attention to themselves
May 12, 2021 2:31 p.m.
@Egogalore, On the individual level, sure. But as technology advances it reaches more and more people. The point here is, let’s say everyone with this technology takes that mindset and they each only make no more than 10 of a given card. Even with that limit eventually the market will get flooded, not by a flood of dupes by a few people, but due to a flood of producers who caught onto a “gold rush” opportunity. The only thing that restrains the number of people to produce a card varies on two factors: 1. Accessibility of the technology and 2. Profit. If the first hurdle is dropped due to further advances of technology then a large flood of producers will flood the markets until prices tank below the cost of production.
Caerwyn says... #2
From the legal side of things, Wizards will attempt to bury the counterfeiters in litigation and would certainly involve the police/feds.
From a practical side, if these cards saw widespread distribution, it would result in a complete crash of Magic’s secondary market. Both honest buyers and sellers would lose trust in their product, since neither could be 100% sure they were dealing with genuine products. It would be complete pandemonium.
November 28, 2019 9:07 a.m.