Booster Packs Suck
General forum
Posted on March 20, 2012, 6:41 p.m. by Timbo
Ok, so for my seemingly weekly installment of "Timbo's BS," I thought I would do sort of a little poll on a fun topic: buying booster packs. Everyone has their own method on selecting which one(s) to buy, but there seems to be no particular method that helps improve one's chances of pulling that one epic card. I personally have probably the most rotten luck when it comes to these 15-card addictions, but I keep getting them anyway in the hopes of getting the cards I need to break out my deck. I have tried many "superstitious" methods for selection, but I have yet to perfect one that works. Here are a few I have tried:
1). ARTWORK: This was mostly employed when Zendikar was current, although I find myself doing this occasionally still. I would usually get the ones that have the "color" I think should be prominent in the pack (ie. if Liliana was pictured on the front, I figured that the cards would be mostly black). This method NEVER works.
2). VARIED POSITION ON THE SHELF: I would either get a bunch from the shelf that were stacked (or hung) right in a row or try to strategically grab some a set number apart (like every other one or every third one). This gave some results, but I would find some bogus cards in most.
3). THROWING IN THE AIR: Out of desperation, I have recently employed the method of throwing several packs in the air and choosing the ones that land odd (ie. all upside down packs, or vice versa). This has been the least effective. :(
I know this whole feed is a little silly, but I feel there is a better method to go about this. Perhaps if I were to win some FNMs, I wouldn't have to worry so much. :) Mostly, I just find it fun to see if anyone else has an odd method to choose booster packs, or if most methods are just to buy a bunch and hope for the best. Please, if anyone has their kooky way, please post it here and enjoy the comments. :)
Epochalyptik says... #3
I've honestly just taken to trading away any boosters I win or get. Statistically, they're worth more sealed because your chances of opening something worth more than the face value of the pack is very low (about 30% or so). I think the only packs that are actually worth cracking are Zendikar.
Occasionally you might just get a lucky break. I remember buying ten packs (there was a discount/sale) of M11/ZEN mix about a year ago and opening Baneslayer Angel, Sun Titan, Grave Titan, Gideon Jura, Sorin Markov, and some other money card. The chances of that happening to me or anyone else are inconceivably low, however.
March 20, 2012 6:51 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #4
As an addendum to my post, if you're an efficient trader you'll almost always find that to be the best way to acquire cards you need. It involves the least investment and has the most margin for success/profit/whatever you want to call it.
March 20, 2012 6:53 p.m.
rckclimber777 says... #5
I think at one point cracking worldwake packs was worth it that was when the man lands, stoneforge, jace, abyssal persecutor, and some others were at the forefront. Now that those prices have diminished they are less worth the time, though who doesn't get the rush of opening a worldwake pack in hopes of finding the ever elusive Jace in the back of the pack.
March 20, 2012 6:55 p.m.
OmegaSerris says... #6
Are people still doing that whole booster mapping thing? Forgive me if I have it wrong. I never looked into the specifics, just a general idea.
Basically, all cards going into boosters are cut from sheets and assembled into packs by machines. As you programmers out there know, there is no 'Random' when it comes to computers, only pseudo-random. This means that by gathering enough facts about boxes of boosters (what rares were pulled, where they were shipped, etc...), people would generate maps predicting what boosters were the most valuable and could be opened for a profit.
Rumors were that some less-than scrupulous online retailers and card shops would use these to pull the money rares and sell off the jank ones unopened.
It wasn't an exact science (what is?) but it supposedly greatly increased your odds to get what you were after. I know Wizards caught on a few times and changed up production to prevent it, so I don't know if it is still in practice anymore.
March 20, 2012 7:47 p.m.
Ryuzaki2783 says... #7
I find myself buying in sets of 3 and today i actually opened a pack and found the first 5 cards in the following pack were identical . Sometimes it works more often it doesn't.
March 20, 2012 11:24 p.m.
When you're looking for a specific card, trading or buying singles is the most efficient way to go, I will agree.
But I still like buying boosters. There's a certain magic to it. The booster pack represents chance, the limitless future. Sure, some are mediocre, some are bad, and some are astounding, but isn't that the point of the random booster? Maybe I'll pull nothing special. Maybe what I'll pull will become useful down the line. Maybe I get a Mythic.
And maybe I'm too much of a Timmy, but I still find myself buying boosters when I want new cards.
March 20, 2012 11:35 p.m.
NobodyPicksBulbasaur says... #9
SpammyV nailed it. Couldn't have said it better myself.
March 21, 2012 1:28 a.m.
I buy packs when a new set comes out, and usually in the form of a booster box. But then that's it. If you need just one or two specific rare cards, you'd be a damned fool to open packs for it.
100% of the store credit I earn in tournaments goes towards singles that nobody else has, tournament entry, booster boxes of new sets, and miscellaneous drinks/snacks at the shop.
March 21, 2012 1:35 a.m.
NobodyPicksBulbasaur says... #11
@zandl you've got an efficient method, but where is the fun in all of it? You're missing out on that gut-wrenching uncertainty that comes with opening every new pack. And then the thrill of victory each time you open a solid card.
March 21, 2012 1:38 a.m.
Uh. I'd prefer to miss out on that feeling if it also meant missing out on the other 7 out of 8 times you get some shit-rare that'll sit in a shoebox for the rest of time.
Besides. I still open boxes.
And, really, buying boxes is the only cost-efficient way to buy Magic packs. If you buy 23 packs over the course of a month, that's $92. You could've just purchased a sealed box with 36 packs for less.
March 21, 2012 1:44 a.m.
You don't even want to know how many Baneful Omens and Temple Bells I've got.
March 21, 2012 1:45 a.m.
Valentine35 says... #14
the only thing that i have found effective, and its very strange. With buying Innistrad packs i always grab from the left side of the box, in doing this i have always boosted either a Liliana, Grimgrin, or Snapcaster. I always buy 7-8 packs at a time, because the owner of my shop sells them 7 for 20$, or if im playing sealed i get to play twice with 8 packs. So if your looking for Lily, Grimmy, or Snappy your best chance is to get them on the left side of the box. Its not a guarantee but its more likely so dont come back online and yell at me lol.
March 21, 2012 7:24 a.m.
Rhadamanthus says... #15
@Valentine35: It's related to the "booster mapping" that OmegaSerris mentioned earlier. Since the cards always have the same positions on the print sheets and are cut, collated, and packaged by machines, there are certain pack positions in each box that have a very high probability for holding a specific card. For retailers and secondary-market sellers who buy and process very large amounts of product at a time, it's not difficult to gather enough data to build a "map" of those pack positions in an average booster box (sometimes the probabilities are also correlated with a box's position in a case, or its serial number).
March 21, 2012 9:07 a.m.
cryptichorror says... #16
When buying boosters from an open booster box at a shop, I try to pull right from the top, rather than digging through. I've seen many people buy a couple packs, open them right in the store and find some amazing mythic. What do they do then? They assume there are more good cards in the box and buy more packs. They don't stop until they start cracking jank. It's the slot machine theory. If people stop buying when they get bad packs, that means that the last packs pulled were crappy, and therefore there is a better chance that the top packs might be good again. Granted, this is hardly a science or proven. Just my little superstition.
Also, I don't know if this is consistent with others' findings or not, but I tend to get much better pull when I buy individual boosters from mega retailers like Target, Meijer, and Wal-mart than I do from packs out of booster boxes. I'd be interested to know if WotC does this intentionally or if it is all in my head.
March 21, 2012 10:55 a.m.
Everyone so far has some good input. I will say that the thrill of the booster is too much to just cast it to the wind. I will admit, I am not the greatest trader in the world, simply because I am the unlucky fool who pulls nothing but jank. I will have to see about getting the boxes from here on out. Zandl, I have to admit, I had never realized the economics of the box, since I used to just buy 3 or 4 boosters at once and hope for the best. There are better odds from the boxes.
Also, Valentine, I will have to get the owner of my shop to do some of the deals you mentioned earlier. The 7/$20 deal sounds pretty awesome, but the best he has done is $1 rare packs for 10 cards. I will admit that these packs usually have the janky rares, but they are useful in a few cases.
I will admit, I have never done a draft for the very reason I started this thread: I SUCK at pulling good stuff from boosters, and a draft would ensure my demise. I would like to try one out, but I do not want to get poned just from rotten luck and bad chance.
Thank you to everyone who has commented so far. I appreciate the input and I will try some of the methods listed here. Mostly, if anyone has seen/commented on my decks, they will know that no dual lands are employed, and this is why: bad booster pack luck and none available at the local card shop (even for trade). I guess Illinois needs to get on top of this and get some better cards shipped to the state. :)
March 21, 2012 11:22 a.m.
The only proven statistic is that the more you buy, the more likely you'll get what you want. I think WotC has exploited this already though...
March 21, 2012 6:02 p.m.
If there are only 3 packs left on the shelf, snag them. Ive done this multiple times and its effective last time was M11 and i got an inferno titan, sun titan and solemn simulacrum.
rckclimber777 says... #2
Occasionally I'll compare how each pack feels along the edges. If I think a card is prominent near the artwork side of the pack I'll probably pick it up assuming that it is probably a foil. I'm probably 60/40 on that one. So considering that packs have a pretty slim chance in general in getting a foil that seems to be pretty effective. (granted my numbers have been down with innistrad and DKA mainly because I haven't bought a lot of packs).
One time I wanted a primeval titan from m11. There were two packs on the shelf went ahead and bought both. Second pack was a primeval titan. Wish that would work all the time.
Another time I was looking for Jace the Mind Sculptor. Went with a friend to the store I picked up 4-5 packs of worldwake and a deck builder's box (I was still a noob). He picked up 1 pack of worldwake and 1 pack of m11. He pulled a Garruk from the m11 pack and you guessed it... a Jace the mind sculptor from the worldwake pack. I pulled crap from my stuff. Just happens sometimes.
Booster box presale is the way to go. Then just trade after that.
March 20, 2012 6:47 p.m.