Expected value of boxes
Economics forum
Posted on Nov. 26, 2015, 6:13 a.m. by clayperce
A user asked a question over on the General forum about What box to get? I ended up digging into it from a financial angle and wanted to share the results here.
In case you weren't aware, MTGgoldfish does a write-up on the expected value of an "average booster box" for new sets, using pre-release prices. For example, here's their BFZ article.
MTGstocks calculates the expected value for sets too, using current prices.
Here are some details:
- Set | Expected Value of an "average" box (MTGstocks) | Market Price (TCGplayer) | Difference
- BFZ | 86.35 | 89.89 | -3.54 (not counting Expeditions)
- ORI | 106.56 | 93.93 | 16.67
- DTK | 120.07 | 89.69 | 30.38
- FRF | 85.97 | 87.58 | -1.61
- KTK | 124.08 | 90.81 | 33.27
And here's the short story, for Standard:
- Dragons and Khans are almost always good value
- BFZ is 83% meh (no Expedition), 14% great (most Expeditions) and 3% amazing (blue fetchland Expedition)
DTK is due to the commands, coco, den protector, deathmist and the dragon lords.
November 26, 2015 7 a.m.
JakeHarlow says... #4
Yeah I didn't realize that DTK had such high value...but Kolaghan's Command and its ilk are somewhat money.
November 26, 2015 10:10 a.m.
Gidgetimer says... #5
Dawnglare also has an estimated value per box and they don't agree on that estimated value per box. Mostly because they count <$1 cards as worthless and don't take into account foils. Using TCG Mid they have them at:
BFZ: $54
ORI: $70
DTK: $85
FRF: $84
KTK: $90
November 26, 2015 10:38 a.m.
I have 'speculated' on buying boxes and turning them into value for a couple years now. I use all the resources listed by yourself and others here, but there are a number of factors worth noting here, as it depends what you're trying to accomplish.
I speculate for fun; that is, I'll crack a box drafting with friends, keep some cards I want, and sell the remaining value-cards locally to recuperate the box cost or for marginal profit while the cards are 'hot'. Selling Locally to individuals means no shipping costs, and always getting higher than buylist prices.
This works well the week sets are released, but exponentially worse as time goes on and supply goes up. You're not going to recuperate your costs doing the same but selling them at buy-listed value or significant reoccurring shipping expenses. At best you're probably selling in-store for store credit , so the actual value of your box is maybe 80% of the EV in "magic money" - not hard cash.
The most i've ever made from a box was about $50 (it is generally closer to 20) while still keeping what i REALLY want. Factoring in the time it takes to do all that selling, checking individual card prices etc, it is NOT PROFITABLE, not by a mile. Dollars per hour, i'd make more money delivering newspapers or flipping burgers... This is why I draft the box with friends (fun), and put the money made into buying better cards for our Cube. I can only recommend seeing it as a hobby or fun experiment.
That said, have fun with it man. Hope you crack some awesome stuff.
November 26, 2015 11:58 a.m.
Thanks for all the comments!
Yeah ChiefBell, I was surprised to see any of the boxes were even close to break-even!
Thanks Gidgetimer, for pointing out Dawnglare.
Yeah brcap, I usually get a couple boxes per set -- one for practice drafts and one to store away until I just can't stand it any more (I'm not sure my Innistrad box is going to make it thru the hype as we approach SOI!). I saw the Professor's BFZ box game video the other day though, and might have to try it sometime. But in general, I just buy/trade for singles.
November 26, 2015 2:12 p.m.
DTK has a lot of good standard format cards in it, and the commands/coc are great in modern. However, KTK boxes should hold value forever basically. I plan on buying a case from my lfgs with my tax money and just putting it away. If it tanks, then the kiddos will have something to draft in 15 years that none of their friends ever even got to touch.
ChiefBell says... #2
It's surprising that boxes look to be, on average, a good investment at the moment. Normally the market doesnt work that way. Though ORI is probably hype around jace, and KTK must be fetches. I dont know what is making up value in DTK.
November 26, 2015 6:46 a.m.