When to Combo Off
General forum
Posted on June 22, 2017, 4:49 p.m. by landofMordor
So, I've long had a couple questions concerning timing combos. Especially when you're ready to commit to combining off. Take the following scenario:
You have 2 tapped Swamps and New Perspectives on the field, with two Esper Sojourners, Resounding Thunder, and 2 Shadow of the Grave in hand. Your opponent is at 18, and you know you can kill her by cycling your hand, untapping your Swamps, and then Shadow-ing twice to get a total of 18 Resounding damage. However, your opponent has 1 unknown card in hand, 2 untapped Islands, and has not played any of her Negates.
How do you stack the triggers here to minimize damage if your opponent is waiting to Negate your Grave? The question revolves around who gets priority and how to mitigate the risks of getting blown out.
Any strategies here would be most appreciated. I'm used to being the one with counters, so learning to avoid them is new.
Heres a way to simplify your question: when do you call a bluff? Multiple podcasts and articles have addressed this tricky question. Looking up related phrases will help, I think there was a fairly recent limited podcast called "Call or Bluff."
but honestly, aside from knowing exactly what your deck is capable of and the odds of drawing X card in your deck in X draws - there isn't much you can do.
The number one advice is usually this: how bad is it for you to hold back and play around a counterspell? Will you be out of the game entirely if it's countered at this point, or are there outs you can still play towards? Alternatively, will you slowly lose a game of attrition playing around it?
For instance, in the above scenario, if she only has one card in hand, odds are fairly low it's a counterspell depending on the deck, format, etc., so I'd say go for it because against a control deck holding back only allows them to sculpt a hand against you and play more lands.
But maybe your deck plays hand disruption or cheap threats, so you may be able to string together a turn where you play enough threats that must be immediately answered that one has to jam through. In that case, wait.
It's all subjective and in most cases just playing to your odds. Most pros will admit it comes down to how you like to play the game.
But I'd highly suggest starting to watch control mirror matches at the pro level and maybe reading up on poker strategies. The control mirror will show you what I mean by waiting and sculpting a hand where your threats are so overwhelming that you have to land one.
Specifically I recommend the match between someone on a UW Control deck and Shota Yasooka on Grixis Control at Pro Tour Kaladesh. It's masterful.
Hope this helped, feel free to ask follow up Q's, I play BR reanimator in Legacy and combo in EDH so I'm always working on this.
June 22, 2017 9:48 p.m. Edited.
This is the podcast I mentioned.
The whole ep is very useful but the bluff/call discussion starts around the 40 min mark.
June 22, 2017 9:54 p.m. Edited.
landofMordor says... #5
abby315 thank you very much! The Shota Yasooka matches are amazing. And I love the podcast. You went above and beyond, and I appreciate it!
TMBRLZ, thank you! I was fearing the same thing, but I couldn't think of a way to bait out my opponent either. I appreciate your help!
TMBRLZ says... #2
As I'm mathing it, there really is no avoiding it in that situation.
You just have to play around the counterspell by waiting for them to tap out. If they're smart, they won't.
You have the advantage in only one way. Cycling is instant speed and so is your Shadow of the Grave. So you can wait for them to tap out, such as when they play a draw spell.
Say this were Standard. Control players may tap out to play Glimmer of Genius or Torrential Gearhulk. As long as you have New Perspectives in play then you could start cycling overtop of them on the stack and cast your Shadow of the Grave cards while they're still waiting for their draw or wincon to resolve.
As for somebody who is already waiting on you to make your move. You're kind of stuck. You have to cycle your guys to untap your lands and then you'll cast your Shadow and she'll counter it and then you're just kind of out of luck.
Hope it helps.
June 22, 2017 8:19 p.m.