BW Tokens: Elspeth vs Sorin
Deck Help forum
Posted on Dec. 21, 2014, 2:15 a.m. by capriom85
So I have this BW tokens modern build: BW Tokens
What do you think would play out best? Leave it alone, or move Sorin, Lord of Innistrad to the mainboard and move 1 Elspeth, Knight-Errant to the side?
I know this iteration of Elspeth is a superior card to this iteration of Sorin, however, when playin gthis deck I have realized the importance of the 1 of aspect of MtG. Elspeth is awesome here...2 Elspeths are not twice as awesome. They are actually worse because one is a dead card in hand.
I am open to other advice on the deck as well, but this Is my main concern for the moment. Thanks
Servo_Token says... #3
I personally prefer the new sorin to either of the walkers that you mentioned, but that's just me. When it comes down to these two, Elspeth is better as a 2 of.
December 21, 2014 10:14 a.m.
I draw them both in the same game quite consistently. I know it is just an odds game, but these odds seem to always show up for me. Elspeth only goes up in loyalty (mostly) so I'm never thrilled to see the second one in my hand.
The downside to Sorin is simply that his token is black and does not get the bonuses from Honor of the Pure. He does get it from Intangible Virtue though and Sorin makes his own anthem so I may just go with the split.
December 21, 2014 10:15 a.m.
ThatBlueMage, I don't like new Sorin in here simply because the deck has life gain already and old Sorin gives a permanent anthem and his +1 makes a guy, not his -2. The steady flow of creatures for no investment is much more powerful here. It makes their 1 for 1 removal almost ineffective
December 21, 2014 10:18 a.m.
I am just the man for you. Use cathars crusade and nomad's assembly
December 21, 2014 7:28 p.m.
Those seem a bit slow and janky for Modern. By the time I'd be playing those I am looking to be swinging for game.
I could see the Assembly as a 1 of for a serious board flood, though, car.
December 21, 2014 8:14 p.m.
capriom85 I draw them both in the same game quite consistently. I know it is just an odds game, but these odds seem to always show up for me.
This is why you believe the math not your memory's ability to trick you into thinking there is a pattern that doesn't exist. Everyone remembers their bad beats more than the 100s of other games where the deck plays statistically normal.
Here are the chances of having drawing both Elspeth, Knight-Errant as the game progresses.
- 7 cards drawn - 1%
- 10 cards - 2%
- 20 cards - 10%
- 30 cards - 25%
- 40 cards - 44%
- 50 cards - 70%
- 60 cards - 100%
Your average game of Modern is certainly ending until 13 turns, so you're talking less than a 10% chance in most games.
December 21, 2014 11:08 p.m.
Hickorysbane says... #9
Remember that Sorin's token is 
/
. So it'll still get the boost from Honor of the Pure. But as for the question I think that for the most part you'll be fine with two Elspeths. If one is left on the board for too long and isn't dealt with the game shouldn't be all that long anyways, and if it is dealt with then you'll have a spare.
December 21, 2014 11:55 p.m.
Hickorysbane says... #10
Or the old Sorin at least, which I believe is who that comment was about.
December 22, 2014 12:03 a.m.
Actually, Slycne, I kept track of these types of things during playtesting. I drew into both copies of Elspeth almost 60% of the time. I realize this is way against the odds, but it is also the truth and a fact. This is why I am thinking a 1/1 split is better.
PrecintSix6Six, I am using Sorin, Lord of Innistrad. His token is black.
December 22, 2014 8:42 a.m.
capriom85 Unless you actually played hundreds of games a few playtests isn't going to be a sufficiently large sample size. It's the same notion that you can also flip a coin and get heads six times in a row, but that doesn't change that the odds of heads is still 50/50. The more flips, the bigger the sample size, the more it will regress to statistical probability. The same is true of Magic decks.
Personally, I'm just a big proponent of working out the math for these kinds of decisions. Playtests are useful for determining if you want a card in your deck, what sideboarding to do, etc, but stuff like how many white sources should I run can't be hashed out by simply playing the deck a bunch.
December 22, 2014 10:09 a.m.
I'm simply saying I see the second Elspeth too often. 8 not saying your math is wrong. And yes...I play tested easily over 100 games with kids running various decks
Slycne says... #2
I don't play, or have seen, enough BW Tokens to know which walker is better in the current metagame.
But you're talking really really slim odds that you've drawn both Elspeth, Knight-Errant and the active one on the board isn't putting in enough work that you're drawing dead by having the second. If Elspeth, Knight-Errant is indeed the one worth runnign, you're better off having a 100% greater chance to draw the first one than fretting over the much smaller % of that occurring.
December 21, 2014 2:41 a.m.