What are the odds of this?!?!
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Posted on Aug. 2, 2017, 6:23 p.m. by RowdyMagic18
I have a challenge for everyone, can you figure out what the odds are to this weird situation I had while opening a booster pack of HOU?
I opened a Hour of Eternity for my rare, but then I got a foil Hour of Eternity in the exact same pack!
The odds of pulling a mythic rare and a foil mythic in the same booster pack: roughly 1 in 442,368 in a set with 16 mythics (based off a forum post on MTG salvation)
So what are the odds of pulling a rare from HOU and then a foil of the same rare in the same pack?
Good luck figuring this out everyone!
Yeah i'm not really sure of the odds, but I once had it happen to me. I bought a pack of Oath of the Gatewatch once and I got a Hedron Alignment and a foil Hedron Alignment.
August 2, 2017 7:10 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #4
Calculation seems pretty simple to me. I am using this MTGS comment for odds of certain events. Incidently the post I am using has the odds of any mythic rare and any foil mythic to be at 1/4,300, not 1/442,368.
The different odds going in your scenario are the likelihood of getting a foil pack multiplied by the odds that a foil is a rare multiplied by the odds that it matches your pack rare multiplied by the odds that it is a normal rare instead of a mythic. If you want to include mythic foils that match a pack mythic you would need to add on the possibility of a foil pack times the odds of a mythic foil times the odds of it being in a mythic pack times the odds of it matching.
(15/63)(7/128)(1/42)(7/8) = 85/129,024 or about 1/1518 chance of getting a foil rare that matches a pack rare.
(15/63)(1/128)(1/12)(1/8) = 5/258,048 or about 1/51,610 chance of getting a foil mythic that matches a pack mythic.
Adding the two we get 175/258,048 or about 1/1475 chance of getting a matching rare and foil slot.
August 2, 2017 7:16 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #5
My calculations are of course using the number of rares and mythics for HOU. The odds are going to vary as the number of rares and mythics per set vary.
August 2, 2017 7:18 p.m.
RowdyMagic18 says... #6
Gidgetimer, interesting, thanks for the calculation!
Best of luck at Gameday if you going, if not good luck on the battlefield.
Dabean27 says... #2
I just wish it was a better mythic
August 2, 2017 6:48 p.m.