Card Odds Gets an Update!

Site Updates forum

Posted on Jan. 31, 2024, 7:37 p.m. by Femme_Fatale

We have an update to an existing feature, Card Odds!

In your deck, the card odds button that's above "add to folder" is now split into two. The old function, is now the red "Table" button. This is what you remember card odds being, just a table with odds for each given turn.

The card odds button itself, now brings you to a new page. This new card odds feature is designed to let you calculate complex probabilities of various combinations of cards. And you'll notice something special about this page too:


The tutorial/walkthrough will guide you through some basic functionality of this feature. You can press help again to bring it back up if you want to read it again. This feature may start to show up in other places as well that are particularly confusing to use.

Beyond that there's some additional things to point out:

The "Any Cards" option utilizes hypergeometric distribution, finding the odds of Card1 or Card2, computing them like P(Card1) + P(Card2). The "Exact Cards" option utilizes multivariate hypergeometic distribution, finding the odds of Card1 AND card2, computing them like P(Card1) * P(Card2).

The double arrow buttons will shift all the cards from one list to the other, whereas the single arrow buttons will shift only one item from one list to the other. Double clicking on an item will act like the single arrow button. You can click and drag on the lists to mass select certain sections, but to move that whole selection you'll want to hold down ctrl and double click.

Your selection of cards to calculate the card draw odds for are not going to be kept when transitioning from Any Card option to Exact card option, so keep that in mind when comparing the two options. Also important to note that you cannot find the exact card odds when your selection is larger than the amount of cards you are drawing, getting exactly 4 copies of Path to Exile is never going to happen if you are only drawing 3 cards.

There's a lot less for me to say here because of the presence of the tutorial, so instead, let us know what you think of the updated Card Odds feature and how it (or even the tutorial itself) can be improved!

Gidgetimer says... #2

With the caveats that I haven't looked at it yet and I have no advanced knowledge in statistics. But shouldn't the "Any Cards" be P(Card1) + P(Card2) - [P(Card1) * P(Card2)]?

Like for a case where you have a 10% probability of two separate events the odds of having >=1 of the events happening is 19% because they are overlapping probabilities. Of the 10% of times that event 2 happens event 1 will also 10% of those times meaning that the success has already been achieved and counted. With more than 2 events you are tracking the equation becomes harder to display in this way.

February 1, 2024 11:10 p.m.

Gidgetimer says... #3

Just played with it, odds are displayed correctly. It is just that there is no simple and elegant way to explain the "any card" option.

February 1, 2024 11:16 p.m.

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