MtG Arena play / draw rate

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Posted on March 14, 2019, 5:27 p.m. by Eledain

I have a real "problem" in MtG Arena. In nearly 500 games I have only been on the play on about 38 % of games (counting best of one and the first games of best of three).

Has anyone else also noted such a difference? This sucks especially in best of one where the die roll can win or lose you games. I already had it really often, that that half turn cost me the game.

How are your on the play and on the draw rates?

PlatinumOne says... #2

i wouldn't worry too much. 38% isn't too far off from the approximately 50% that it should be. bad luck happens

March 14, 2019 11:38 p.m.

Eledain says... #3

12 % is a lot if you ask me. Sure, bad luck happens, but what if the die roll isn't truly random? The starting hand algorhythmn isn't truly random, so who tells me that the die roll is truly random? It could be bugged by accident.

With the last deck which I build yesterday I was on the play in two games and on the draw in thirteen games. That just feals really really bad mate.

I was just curious if anyone else noticed some similarities to my observations.

March 15, 2019 2:48 a.m.

PlatinumOne says... #4

12% is not a lot. going on the play 38% of the time is about 4 times in 10, rather than the average of 5 in 10 it "should" be. key word being "average".

you're basically trying to ask if theres any possibility the die roll is bugged to favor a certain player, which is kinda silly, because how would the program know who to favor for the die roll? again it would still come down to random luck.

just gotta accept bad luck happens man.

March 15, 2019 2:57 a.m.

Eledain says... #5

4 out of 10 or 38 out of 100 or 380 out of 1000. You see my problem? :-)

But sure thing you're probably right.

March 15, 2019 4:12 a.m. Edited.

PlatinumOne says... #6

give it time and it will average out. unless you're playin pure aggro, being on the draw shouldn't "cost" you a game. even then, you'll still have the faster clock.

March 15, 2019 5:08 a.m.

dan8080 says... #7

As someone who works in data a 12% difference is pretty significant and I'd be curious as to how the data was collected. I know Desolator magic was bitching something about his play draw rates being shitty when he was in line for a tier up. Not trying to stir shit just not the first time I've heard this and I personally think arena is poorly coded. I know you wanna prevent non games on your big game platform but like sorry Variance is a big part of magic. Sometimes luck sucks.

March 15, 2019 9:22 a.m.

Eledain says... #8

I write down all the important informations about a game on paper and put them into a excel sheet at the end of my gaming session.

Yeah, it's complicated to do it that way, but I don't like tracker. :-)

March 15, 2019 10:06 a.m.

Boza says... #9

12% is a lot of difference. To put it into perspective for those who think it is not - If each game you bet with a betting house, only a single dollar, that you would draw in the game, you would win $120 over 500 games.

I know they fix your starting hands severely, but never thought to look out for that.

March 15, 2019 11:41 a.m.

PlatinumOne says... #10

Boza that analogy doesn't even make sense, nor does it prove your point at all.

dan8080: idk what "data" you're looking at but 12% difference in a die roll for a game is not the same as 12% difference in the data a company is looking at.

March 15, 2019 12:56 p.m.

Eledain says... #11

Just a few numbers to say that being on the draw costs games: in my last 30 ranked games I have a on the play winrate of 93,75 % and a on the draw winrate of only 69,23 %.

Sure, it was an aggro deck which I played, but if you have limited time to play, aggro will grind fastest and will be punished hardest for being on the draw.

March 18, 2019 5:02 p.m.

PlatinumOne says... #12

the "on the play" winrate vs the "on the draw" winrate doesn't actually mean being on the draw lost you the games. there are many factors that come into play, and no real way of determining which is the cause of a win or loss.

March 18, 2019 8:34 p.m.

Eledain says... #13

Sure it isn't the only factor, but it's a clear trend. I can give you numbers from other aggro decks that indicate the same.

March 19, 2019 3:13 a.m.

knto says... #14

I know this is a necro, but I feel I have to point out that the odds of that happening are basically 0. Forgive me for approximating the distrobution as an integral, but seeing as how it would probably take my computer until the end of the universe to do a discrete distribution, it's an integral or a simulation. Based on an integral approximation the odd of that happening are 7.0412×10^-8 or ~7/100,000,000. I'm becoming increasingly convinced that the play and draw in best of one is determined by win rate or something similar.

wolfram alpha code for those interested 2 integral_0^(500×0.38) (500!)/(x! (500 - x)!)×0.5^x×0.5^(500 - x) dx

November 3, 2019 9:43 p.m.

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