Expedition Lands
Economics forum
Posted on Oct. 2, 2015, 3:08 p.m. by -Orvos-
So i just pulled a Breeding Pool zendikar expedition land and am wondering how the value of these cards is expected to go. I dontmuch like blue green so ill never use it in a deck. Im just wondering if the value will drop or raise over time. Id like to buy more cards with it.
Now, there is something to be said for the "Prerelease Pack" theory. Essentially, Wizards "stuffs" the packs for prereleases with better cards more frequently. This happened with my LGS and the God Packs from Theros. On Oahu (I lived in Hawaii at the time) there were three God packs opened. After that, I never heard of another god pack being opened.
Let's see how the expeditions occur during regular FNM's and GPs before we talk about the rarity of them, and eventual prices.
October 2, 2015 3:51 p.m.
Is it worth holding onto then or should i just get another fat pack with it?
October 2, 2015 4:28 p.m.
I cant find a current price on it. How much are they even going for now?
October 2, 2015 4:34 p.m.
$90 today in the us but on the way down
JWiley129 - are there more reports of that theory? your example seems like anecdotal evidence from a small sample size.
October 2, 2015 5:19 p.m.
shuflw - I have no hard proof, but here Gerrard Fabiano tells a similar story with this quote:
"Years ago I had heard that the packs used for Prerelease weekends had different print runs than regular packs. The story was that these packs were denser with big flashy cards from the set. I'm not sure if this is true or not, but it certainly makes sense to me. If that is actually the case, it would explain why there were a lot more Expeditions opened than expected. Another possibility is that it just feels like more Expeditions were opened, since the only reports we've heard have come from people bragging about how many their store opened. I guess we'll have to wait until release to know for sure."
I included the entire paragraph to emphasize that it could not be the case. However, if you think about it, if people open flashy cards at the prerelease they are probably more likely to buy more packs in the hopes of getting really lucky.
October 2, 2015 5:40 p.m.
They're way overpriced like now, like I warned. Sell sell sell!
October 3, 2015 2 a.m.
yeah, it would definitely make sense to drive people to buy more packs. i can see a few counterpoints that would lead me to believe it isn't the case though:
1 - there is a huge volume of product opened at a prerelease compared to the rest of the set. my lgs runs 5 events on prerelease weekend, and each one has a huge turnout. otherwise its a few drafts/sealed per week with much lower numbers. the only other events that open close to the same amount of product are limited GP's, but they are a more competitive environment where people aren't sitting next to their friends celebrating awesome pulls. there are a huge number of junk rares pulled at prerelease too, but it's easier to remember the jackpots.
2 - i know next to nothing about wizards' printing process, but i imagine there could be some difficulty/cost associated with changing print runs. i'm not sure if those costs are worth the benefit.
3 - if this procedure were ever discovered and proven, it would probably be a PR headache and make wizards look really shady. between all of the people involved (wizards execs, media department, the actual company that does the printing) i think there would need to be a decent number of people involved that could accidentally or on purpose share this information. there are also a lot of nerds with free time who play this game that could just compile card pull data to see if there is any statistically relevant changes happening.
i agree with you that it seems like more value is opened at prereleases, i just wondered if anyone had proved it. i'm hopeful that it's not worth it to wizards to do that.
kyuuri117 says... #2
I don't know how the price is going to fluctuate, but I will say this. The current prices were set with people assuming that the expeditions were going to have the same rarity as foil mythic rares, as that's what Maro said. That would be roughly one expedition every 216 packs.
However, it's been widely reported that this isn't the case. It's more like one expedition every 70 packs, or roughly three times what it was originally expected to be. So it's probable that they drop in price. Whether they drop to a third of their current prices, half of their current prices, or stay the same for a month... who knows. But they should drop as product continues to be opened and people try and undercut each other.
October 2, 2015 3:20 p.m. Edited.