Modern Tiered List Weekly Update for 6/19/17

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Ashockfan

19 June 2017

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Hey guys, Avi Mikhli here with this week's Tiered List Update, with analysis this week. This week, we see a lot of change at the top of the metagame, largely revolving on the continued success of the top deck. I have also added both BW eldrazi and Tezzerator to the Tiered List, as these were decks who had some small success in past weeks to the extent that I didn't believe they were real enough decks to add, but their continued success has proved me wrong. As such, BW eldrazi enters the Tiered List in Tier 3 after amassing 2 Open results at Charlotte and Tezzerator is on the cusp on Tier 3 with 7 points.

Going into the Modern portion of GP Vegas this week, the meta was in a unique spot. Let’s attempt to break down the change brought by the Charlotte Open and the results directly following it.

Here in Tier 1 we have the best of the best, the decks you will consistently see when playing in the format. To go into more depth:

• Grixis Shadow has completely left the rest of the meta in the dust. For the last week (excluding GP Vegas) it seemed that for each Tier 1 deck result there were 2 Grixis Shadow results. The deck is succeeding based on both its inherent power-level and the mass jump to it from the competitive community. Sure, it is doing REALLY well. But keep in mind that an absolutely massive amount of people are playing it now, so it's not like the deck has an absurd win-rate or anything. It is genuinely powerful, is playing with the most efficient cards the format has to offer, and is using them to success. But I will reiterate the lack of need for a ban, because as tournaments have shown, if people adequately prepare for the deck, it won’t do nearly as well.

• In a similar vein, BGx Shadow has been dropping and will likely continue that way as people abandon it for the church of Grixis.

• Speaking of decks that are going down because of the rise of Shadow, Gifts Storm really doesn’t like the amount of disruption people are packing currently, and that is represented in the data. Those turn 3 kills don’t happen often when your Baral gets pushed and your gifts gets thoughtseized away.

• Company goes down this week, likely as a result of people being more prepared for it and people hopping off the ‘ERMAGAWD THIS COMBO OP’ hype train. The deck is genuinely good, but not quite as good as the previous numbers represented. I expect it to eventually stabilize somewhere around 3.5 to 4%.

• Finally we have Affinity, which had somewhat of a quiet week results-wise. Clearly that changed with the results of Vegas, but that will be represented next week.

On to Tier 2, the middle of the pack for the competitive metagame. Some interesting details:

• Jeskai Control is back, this time with lots of Spell Quellers. This new version as well as traditional nahiri/saheeli/kiki Control lists have been succeeding en masse this week. Jeskai may well be taking the top slot for control decks back from previously-best UW Control, which has been slipping recently. It seems like the best way to play control in the format currently is proactively, and these Jeskai lists are certainly doing so. They pack a good bit of burn, which allows you to turn the corner quickly or just punish your Shadow opponent for going below 10 against a “burn” deck.

• Interesting to note Elves quietly dropping a little bit each week. It seems like people switched off of it during the Company hype train phase and didn’t really see a reason to come back. Elves is powerful, but has some faults that bring it down. And since Shadow has been known to pack at least a few boardwipes in the side specifically for decks like elves and affinity, I’m not surprised to see it drop. When you start losing the matchups that are supposed to be favorable to hate cards that you can’t really answer, you’re in a bad spot.

On to Tier 3, the decks on the cusp of significant competitive success or on their ways up to bigger and better places. Some details to notice:

• Smallpox strategies continue to do well in a format with Shadow as the top deck, which is unsurprising. Smallpox can disrupt their hand, kill their large creatures easily, and disrupt their mana while not losing much themselves. Overall they should just be able to grind through what Shadow is throwing at them, which seems like a fairly good spot to be in.

• Humans also continues to rise. For whatever reason, the deck has just started to pile on result after result. It’s almost as if a previously disregarded archetype finally figured out something that worked the way it was supposed to, and then people just started doing extremely well with the deck. It’s odd but hey, a more diverse metagame is a healthier one, so the more decks that can do well, the better.

• BW Eldrazi was finally added to the Tiered List this week, and for good reason. The deck put up multiple Top 32 finishes at the Charlotte Open as well as a couple other results here and there finds itself in Tier 3. When analyzing why this success is being achieved, the answer is positioning. Being a deck that mainboards 4 Relics and has various other disruptive elements, it is fairly well positioned against a meta that really likes its graveyard intact (looking at you, Shadow, Dredge, and Storm). While it seems fairly weak against Burn and other Eldrazi decks, the deck seems like it could be 50% or above against nearly every other Tier 1 or 2 deck, barring a few like Titanshift and Death and Taxes. I’m not going to assume an increase in success is inbound for the deck, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if it happens.

• One last point, you may notice “Jeskai Draw-Go” sneaking into the bottom of Tier 3 this week. Before I get bombarded with questions asking for the difference between Draw-Go and regular control, the Draw-Go lists are all reactive control decks using Sphinx’s Revelation and wraths to get ahead, and then closing with a 1-2 of Ajani Vengeant or Elspeth (or just colonades). All the “Jeskai Control” decks have something proactive that they are doing, whether it be using spell queller and burning face or utilizing a combo such as Nahiri or CopyCat or Kiki/Resto.

And that’s all for this week. I hope you enjoyed the analysis of the meta changes, and if you have any suggestion on how to improve it or just have something to say about it, feel free to let me know in the comments either on Reddit or TappedOut itself. As for future weeks, I am pleased to say that I will be going on vacation as I usually do over the summer months and Zac Pinales AKA EverythingIsK will be stepping in to update the Tiered List and write about it. Don’t be too harsh on him, please :P (looking at you, reddit). But don’t worry, I’ll be back with as much hyperbole as ever in about 2 months time, ready to break down the modern metagame once more. Peace.

Editor's Note:

For those of you who still want all of the data, here it is: