B&R announcement tomorrow

Spoilers, Rumors, and Speculation forum

Posted on Jan. 20, 2019, 11:46 p.m. by coltron518

whats everyones predictions/opinions for the banned and restricted announcement tomorrow?

personally, i feel that Stoneforge Mystic and Umezawa's Jitte can come off the modern banlist. we just have so many answers to both now, and an equipment themed deck would be really interesting to use. whens the last time anyone saw equipment being used at FNM that wasn't Cranial Plating ?

Punishing Fire can also be brought back. the only reliable way to bring it back was Grove of the Burnwillows . its an inefficient shock that provided a mediocre loop with Grove of the Burnwillows and Liliana of the Veil at best, and jund has too many other cards to use now for that minor combo to be relevant.

as for modern bans, maybe something from KCI thats not used in other decks.

can't really speak much on other formats. Rampaging Ferocidon should probably stay banned for now, and i can't think of any standard cards that need a ban.

Personally I also believe SFM mystic is a safe unban. However I disagree with the Jitte and Punishing Fire unban. Both cards do not make for interesting and interactive games of magic from both sides. they tend to make games very lopsided. Jitte means that whoever draws it first in the creature matchups is highly favored to win, and Punishing Fire means that you get punished (Pun intended) for playing creatures.

Not a standard player so I've no opinion about Ferocidon.

As for bans I could see a faithless looting/ancient stirring ban. both cards increase the power level of the decks they are in nearly ten fold. those who argue that there are deckbuilding restrictions attached please think again about that. These cards just add way too much consistency to the decks they go in. Consistency can be FINE and make for a great format but it has to be kept in check.

Now for my obligatory salty "i hate x card so ban it because i always die to it" choice i will have to say grapeshot. I hate that it is uncounterable and impossible to interact with once it has been cast/resolved. At least with empty the warrens you have a turn to draw an answer or build a game plan. Once again this is just me salting off.

Keep in mind that these are my opinions solely based on speculation. Truth is no one can forsee the future and can explicitly state factually that they know what will or will not happened based on x or y.

January 21, 2019 1:22 a.m.

Flooremoji says... #3

If you ban KCI, ban KCI. Don't ban scrappy, or mox, or stirrings. Ban KCI. That is my say on the matter. I don't think Punishing Grove is safe for modern, and I really don't want to see what SFM will do. Everyone says we have 'so many answers' and yet, legacy deck have FoW and Daze and Swords to Plowshares and thats just in UW. Legacy has just as many answers or more then modern. And legacy is suposed to be a faster format, why will SFM be any worse in modern?

January 21, 2019 2:07 a.m.

coltron518 says... #4

NapoleonBonaparte: not every creature deck will want to run the Jitte, and the only deck that even used Punishing Fire was jund, which now has better options.

as for Ancient Stirrings / Faithless Looting , its highly unlikely those would be banned. banning those cards would hurt decks that don't need to be hurt. those cards don't "increase the power of the deck tenfold", and even if they "did", it doesn't change the fact that they still impose deck building restrictions.

Flooremoji: banning KCI's namesake card would kill the deck altogether. we want to weaken it, not outright kill it. by "punishing grove", do you mean the combo of Punishing Fire and Grove of the Burnwillows ? it won't do much. 2 mana and letting the opponent gain a life just to kill off some weak creatures isn't worth it. like i said, jund has better things to do now. legacy may have more answers than modern, but it is an entirely different format. Stoneforge Mystic 's "best" line of play is a turn 3 Batterskull , which is tame compared to a turn 3 Karn Liberated .

January 21, 2019 2:33 a.m.

Boza says... #5

1 - Do not unban Jitte and SFM at the same time. That seems to be a no-brainer. SFM is a lot safer than jitte.

2 - Unban Green Sun's Zenith - I do not think this is a very powerful card. The only reason it is banned is being a good ramp spell with Dryad Arbor , which is powerful, but not that much. And it puts a significant deck building restriction on you - play a lot of green creatures.

3 - Provide a unified Pauper banlist that marries the current list for MODO to the paper one. It is very simple - just use the current one and add Hymn to Tourach , Sinkhole , Goblin Grenade and High Tide - done!

4 - Change nothing for standard.

5 - Legacy - unban something non-impactful like Mind Twist or Mind's Desire .

January 21, 2019 5:13 a.m.

coltron518 i think you should re-read the last line of my post.

If you can forsee the future and know exactly how things will play out then may I suggest using your powers for something other than a card game?

Once again, the truth is that no one knows EXACTLY how the format would play out if x or y happened. So lets not pretend like we know

January 21, 2019 5:26 a.m.

smackjack says... #7

Bring Dig back to legacy please! :)

January 21, 2019 6:14 a.m.

Demarge says... #8

they ban phyrexian mana spells from mtg under the basis that it allowed other colors to do things set for one color, like anti being a mistake mechanic they could just ban mechanics they admit were too strong. (I don't actually hope for this)

They ban the reserved list from legacy, the reserved list is massively the reason why wotc has essentially abandoned legacy as a format, if they remove it from the format they can start to breath life back into it. There will also be the added bonus of some collectors panic selling their reserved list cards making high end commander more affordable for a bit. Wotc might also try it just because if it fails and further kills legacy it would really just weaken star city games and push fans more towards channel fireball and the magic fests.

Now for my actual hope it would be to unban Stoneforge Mystic , and then to either ban Ancient Stirrings or Pyrite Spellbomb , stirrings because the usual argument of many 1 cmc cantrips being on the modern banlist and spellbomb because the deck would have to resort to much easier to answer wincons that also don't happen to involve a nightmare number of activated abilities to win, also spellbomb was one of the go to wincons of eggs, which kci looks awfully close to.

unbanning stoneforge is more me wanting to play with the good old cawblade style deck in a format that is more alive and lower on the power level from legacy, I admit to buying my sfm back when they came out in the event deck, only to be banned before I could actually play cawblade.

Rampaging Ferocidon could actually be unbanned as a step to stop possible teferi power overload, it would also let them remove the only banned card effect in use in arena atm.

January 21, 2019 8:11 a.m.

Enral says... #9

I think KCI will be banned as even the pioneer himself recommends it. SFM is the obvious safe unban but based on the history of how WOTC deals with the secondary market impact, I think they will only unban it if they were to reprint it in the next supplementary set (maybe Battlebond 2?) instead.

January 21, 2019 8:57 a.m.

_Delta_ says... #10

I don't play tron (rather tron), but I would hate to see Ancient Stirrings get a ban mainly because of KCI decks. I love playing tron and someday I might switch things up if I get bored of playing and I would hate to see an archetype lose that kind of card especially when already there's been so many cards coming out these last few sets that already hate on tron decks.

January 21, 2019 9:19 a.m.

InnerFlame says... #11

Where do we look for instant updates of the ban list announcement?

January 21, 2019 11:10 a.m.

InnerFlame says... #12

KCI is banned

https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/news/january-21-2019-banned-and-restricted-announcement

January 21, 2019 11:20 a.m.

Enral says... #13

Looks like my prediction was on point!

January 21, 2019 11:24 a.m.

DemonDragonJ says... #14

Demarge, an alternative to banning from legacy all cards that are on the reserved list is to print new cards that are so similar to them that they are almost as powerful, but are still technically different cards, so they do not violate the list: for example, the various magi, but most notably Magus of the Wheel and Magus of the Will , exist specially because Wheel of Fortune and Yawgmoth's Will are on the reserved list. The shock lands are the closest that WotC will ever come to reprinting the original dual lands, Gilded Lotus is a balanced Black Lotus , Time Reversal is a balanced Timetwister , Time Warp is a balanced Time Walk , and so forth.

January 21, 2019 6:29 p.m.

coltron518 says... #15

NapoleonBonaparte: i'm confused why you're talking about "predictions" when i never made any.

January 21, 2019 7:26 p.m.

Demarge says... #16

DemonDragonJ one of the clauses of the reserved list is wotc can't reprint functional reprints of cards on the list as well. also every one of your examples are of cards banned in legacy anyway, well outside of shock lands. Shock lands are about the closest wotc can get to reprinting the original duals and they are only considered as either a budget option or as extra copies of duals if the deck wants that many. To be competitive one would never use shocks over alpha duals unless the reserve list was banned.

January 22, 2019 2:42 a.m.

DemonDragonJ says... #17

Demarge, in that case, what do you recommend as a solution, other than banning all cards that are on the reserved list?

January 22, 2019 8:48 p.m.

Demarge says... #18

DemonDragonJ well wotc did kind of take the ban reserve list route with modern already. For a solution other than ban the reserve list all the ones I could think of would require wotc to sink a lot of money into legacy with little to no return.

they push formats that make them money and legacy can't make them money because of the reserve list, they could reprint non reserve list staples until only the reserve list cards are worth above $10 and those reserve list cards will still keep the average cost of a legacy deck to be $2000-5000, but the draw to build budget decks for an fnm level would be there, but then that'd be just banning the reserve list on a personal level.

Wotc could put up a stimulus of prize support for legacy events, if you can get $500 just for making day 2 sure you'd try to attend the event, but this route would make zero sense to hasbro as it'd be cheaper then in legal fees to just remove the reserve list.

January 23, 2019 12:59 a.m.

Boza says... #19

I do not think anyone really gets the most important aspect of the RL - it serves as an ad for magic. You will not believe the number of new MTG players who have just joined the game, but have heard of Black Lotus commanding six figure prices. The RL and its high prices are unique to MTG and reflect Magic's unique selling point over its competitors - the 25+ years of history. Which is exactly what legacy and vintage are celebrating.

It is an allure to the game that gives it gravitas, without impacting financially 99,9% of magic players, since the only time you are required to play with actual RL cards are when you are playing in sanctioned vintage/legacy tournaments.

The easiest solution to the reserve list is for wizards to print now better ABUR duals in a Eternal-legal set like say Commander or Eternal Masters. For example:

Reverse Shock Land - Plains Island

You may have ~ enter the battlefield tapped. If you do, gain 2 life.

This is the way to tackle the reserve list - make the cards non-competitive and less desirable.

January 23, 2019 3:35 a.m.

coltron518 says... #20

Boza: how is a dual land that can enter untapped with no downside (just like an original dual land) that can also enter tapped to gain 2 life, "non-competitive and less desirable"? it would be strictly better than an original dual land.

January 23, 2019 10:47 p.m.

Demarge says... #21

Now Boza all printing better versions of cards on the reserve list would do is completely power creep up legacy, sure hitting the dual lands like that would only dramatically hurt aggro, but imagine hitting Lion's Eye Diamond , the decks that use diamond would simply have another playset for their deck, and imagine if elves had a 2nd playset of cradle, the power level of those decks would multiply likely driving wotc to ban the reserve list anyway from legacy. Also printing more powerful versions of reserve list cards would simply lower the appeal of those iconic cards, banning them from legacy would actually rise that appeal, not only making legacy more affordable, but also making some players want to build vintage.

Now Legacy is a dying format, it's one that as you mentioned 99.9% of players are not playing and it's one that currently wotc can't financially gain from supporting it. Banning the reserve list would let in enough players to allow wotc to really support it again, Vintage would still be that high roller iconic event to draw the ooh and aw new players. There used to be a time when year round the major websites all would put up articles at least weekly about legacy, now if you look at tcg player they put up one article half a month ago and then the one before that was back in september.

January 24, 2019 2:21 a.m.

Boza says... #22

Demarge, Wotc has already supported the format immensely through supplemental product - True-Name Nemesis , Containment Priest , Council's Judgment ; a second Cradle, albeit weaker, rather than stronger, in Growing Rites of Itlimoc  Flip are just the few new cards I can think of that have been printed in support of legacy.

Wizards have 2 ways to gain $$$ from older formats:

1/ Reprints like Wasteland , Force of Will and Rishadan Port are mostly used in legacy and have helped to lower the prices of some decks.

2/ Print new cards like the abovementioned that are exclusively legal and help only the older formats.

Legacy is only a dying format, because the amount of support for it is lackluster. Printing new exciting cards to play in legacy that may dethrone older ones goes against the spirit of the format, but is a way to revive it.

Bans are not the only solution and printing a supplemental set of new cards designed by the Play Design team specifically for Eternal formats is the only way to save them. These formats need an affordable entry point and a new product is the onyl thing that can work without pissing off too many people.

Outright banning cards will tank them and reduce the trust in WOTC as a whole and make the whole RL moot. Another solution is needed for sure.

January 24, 2019 5:10 a.m.

Demarge says... #23

Boza I copy paste my comment #18 to respond to you.

Legacy has one GP scheduled this year, modern has 8, vintage has zero, there also wasn't a legacy GP last year that didn't also run a 2nd format at that venue. Essentially if Starcity were to plummet their legacy events there would be nearly no high level legacy play with physical cards.

The prices of the reserve list is not propped solely on legacy, if it was just the fact that the number of events is dropping would have sunk the prices of many of those cards, also if legacy were to be dropped completely from high profile events it would kill the prices of the reserve list just like banning them would. Moat is a strong example of why legacy is just a piece of what makes the reserve list expensive, it has pretty much zero presence in legacy, but is more expensive than many legacy reserve list staples. So if wotc banned the reserve list the worst price drop one would see for the majority of the cards would be comparable to a standard rotation, sure Lion's Eye Diamond would drop downwards 25% of it's value when the market floods for a bit, but then collectors, investors, and commander players would absorb what legacy players dropped and the prices would creep back up, possibly becoming more solid overtime, as they'd no longer be tied to "nerfed vintage".

January 24, 2019 6:57 a.m.

Caerwyn says... #24

Out of curiosity, I did a quick search of MTG top 8 to see what reserve list cards were being played. In the top 50 cards, the following reserve list cards appear: Volcanic Island , Underground Sea , City of Traitors , Bayou , Tundra , Mox Diamond , and Badlands . If you limit this search to non-land cards, Mox Diamond and Lion's Eye Diamond are the only two reserve list cards to make the top 50.

Those are all great cards, but their representation does not seem high enough to say "the reserve list is killing legacy." It may play a small role by increasing the cost of some cards, but it is far from the format's biggest problem.

I think competition from Modern (both in terms of players and in terms of demand for cards being used in both formats driving up price), Wizards not providing support for Legacy, and the rarity with which new cards that shake up Legacy are printed, are all bigger threats to the format than the Reserve List.

January 24, 2019 9:28 a.m.

Boza says... #25

All of that is because cards in the RL are not valued solely on playability. For some of them, like Moat there are very few copies available and they are vulnerable to a buyout. But the prices of cards that have 0 impact on Legacy do not matter for this, so lets leave moat out of it.

LED is a possibility though. It is one of a handful of cards that are on the RL and are impactful to the format. The legacy-relevant cards are the ABUR duals and that 10-15 other rares like LED, Cradle, City of Traitors, etc.

However, I always support solutions that expand possibilities, rather than contract them. I cannot support banning the RL cards, as I view this as detrimental to the format. New cards are needed to pump fresh blood into legacy and we are seeing this - every new set brings new possibilities, even standard legal ones.

And you can play right now, tier 1-1.5 decks like Death & Taxes, merfolk, goblins, etc. that have exactly 0 RL cards or any other monocolor deck, so RL is not an extreme barrier to entry. New powerful cards for legacy keep lowering that bar even lower with every set.

Careful utilization of the existing resources for reprints of expensive non-RL cards, in combination with new cards that impact the format immensily (even to the point that they are banned like Treasure Cruise or Deathrite Shaman ) are effective tools in combatting the price creep of RL cards. It helps a lot if for your UR Delver deck, the only card over 20 bucks is on the reserve list. It makes it possible to invest in smaller increments.

The only thing lacking from the above formula is focus on competitive scene. However, although competitiveness is a relatively small part of the value make-up of a card, it is still an important one. So, currently, the lack of focus is having a depopulation effect on the oldest formats, but it is also keeping their prices down. In simplest terms, exposure = equity.

And finally, the reserve list is an important link in the chain of the entire secondary market. Cards in it are valuable, never go down in price, only up and are reliable. It forms a stable foundation for all other transactions and is the standard by which all other transactions can be judged. It is the backing to MTG's currency.

If the RL cards go down in value, every card can react in kind and destroy trust in the system. Not messing with the RL in any way is the best way to steady the ship. It means ever-increasing prices of all formats forever, exponential with age, but it is better than the alternative of losing value along all the secondary format.

Monetary theory FTW!

TLDR: The current situation is about as accessible as Legacy can ever be.

January 24, 2019 10:14 a.m.

coltron518 says... #26

this thread has derailed entirely from the topic of the B&R list. i'd delete the thread, but unfortunately that doesn't seem to be an option.

January 24, 2019 7:15 p.m.

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