A possible investment
Economics forum
Posted on Sept. 26, 2020, 8:51 a.m. by DemMeowsephs
Should I invest in Toxic Deluges? It's pretty good in many formats, and I have a feeling it might shoot up again. Who agrees? Or maybe disagrees? It's a great card, but will it go down further? Or maybe just stay roughly the same?
I have to say, I've never seen anyone buy singles on Amazon.
Having watched the card over the last two years, I expect it to go up and be stable around $15-18 until the next reprint, which should only crash it to about $6-7 for a few months. It's a very stable card, which makes it a pretty bad investment in multiples unless you want to make a very meager turnaround.
But if you mean is $10 a good price to pick up a few copies to have on hand, it's not bad. You missed the boat on very good prices but it should continue to go up over the next year or so.
September 26, 2020 10 a.m.
DemMeowsephs says... #4
Both very true points! That is what I meant abby315 lol, just should I get a couple of copies or will it go down. And oddly enough amazon is my go-to place because a good chunk of the time they sell them for cheaper than tcg and card kingdom, though I get singles from them too. Thanks for both of your inputs!
September 26, 2020 10:08 a.m.
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September 26, 2020 2:11 p.m.
dingusdingo says... #7
Short answer? No
Long answer: This is a card that has multiple prints, likely to be reprinted, and from a later set with larger supply than earlier sets. It is a valuable card for basically just EDH, so EDH is the demand. EDH is a peculiar market because EDH players only need a single copy of cards, but will often splurge on a handful if they are cheap. I believe $10 is the price range where most EDH players are buying just one for their collection. However, the price is low enough that even with 100% price increase you're making just $10 on each card, while opening yourself up to the risk of the market moving away from where you want it to.
Consider the price point. If you sell single cards in the future, you're paying for shipping & handling which will eat into the already slim margins. If the card goes to 120% of its current value, and you spend that 20% profit on the shipping of the card, you've made no money while opening yourself up to risk. Next consider how you will eventually sell these cards in the future. Most big names like TCGPlayer and Card Kingdom have to give you 60-80% of the market price of the card so that they themselves can make money too. If you were dealing in cards that cost $500 a pop, this becomes much more worthwhile. Even if you think you've made 25% extra value on the cards, the unloading and selling process will strip extra value from you. Even Facebook buy/sell pages you're getting at best 90% of the market value of the card, so a 125% gain is actually 112.5% of the value going into your pocket. Meanwhile, if the card goes down to 75% of its current market price, you're getting just 67.5% of the price back. A card that stays the exact same price you are losing money on for resale (100% x 0.9 = 90%), and this doesn't even address opportunity cost as this money could be earning you positive money elsewhere.
If you wish to invest in Magic, my advice is buy sealed products, keep them sealed and secure somewhere, and resale them 5+ years down the line. Betting on singles with a small bankroll is extremely risky and even if you get 3 or 4 correct guesses in a row, it can take just one bad speculation to tank your bankroll. Sealed products are extremely safe, and almost every single sealed product doubles its price in 5 years on the resale market.
September 26, 2020 9:24 p.m.
DemMeowsephs says... #8
Well dang... That's certainly all true I didn't even take into account the shipping and packaging etc, or even the fact that companies take a percentage. Sealed does indeed seem much more reliable, and I will look into that in the future! Thanks a ton dingusdingo!
September 27, 2020 8:06 a.m.
Non reserve list cards aren't an investment, they are a gamble. The rate they have been developing new products with reprints in them since last year has far exceeding anything that's ever happened before in magic.
The chances of cards like that (which has been reprinted in a master's already) never getting a reprint and going way up again is getting lower all the time. Maybe they wait a couple years for some specific cards to reprint but if it's not on the reserve list it's price is not untouchable.
That being said Toxic Deluge is a fantastic card and I understand why you want a copy. Maybe get the card even though it might never go up in price again because you just want to have it. Maybe you can't afford it and that's ok. Magic can be absurdly expensive to play. Its tough to get everything we want to play with on the average gamer's budget.
Side note: I find it interesting that most games and gaming hobbies haven't tricked its users into thinking that participating in it is an investment of some sort like magic has. It really is unlike most every modern gaming activity. When I consider a new PC game or a new snowboard I'm not worried about their resale values at all.
September 27, 2020 9:04 a.m.
DemMeowsephs says... #10
Very true! And it really is crazy how much of an empire magic has made. Especially MTGO, they must profit so much off of it.
Massacar says... #2
I personally think that it's going to remain relatively stable if not go down a bit more. It's a great staple card in black, but it's getting reprints and it's hardly going to be the last one.
Invest in it if your "investment" is in a deck that could use it, but if you're just speculating off of future value, I don't think it's going to be gaining much if any.
September 26, 2020 9:53 a.m.