Reckless Endeavor too reckless?
Posted on Aug. 18, 2021, 4:47 a.m. by seshiro_of_the_orochi
I've recently added Reckless Endeavor to a deck. I'm trying to properly evaluate if it's worth playing it. I realize it can wiff really hard. 1 damage to each creature for virtually six mana is terrible. But at which values does it start to become good, powerful or even absurd?
I'm presenting my results here, and I'd love to hear your thoughts on them.
If both dice show a 2 or less, the card is basically terrible. Either 1 damage for 5 mana or 2 damage for 6 mana I'd consider an absolute wiff.
Once we get to 2 and 3, it doesn't seem that bad anymore: 3 damage for 5 mana or 2 damage for 4 mana aren't exactly powerful, but it's slightly less terrible than before.
At 3 and 3, it's getting better. You get a Sweltering Suns for 4 mana, which is slightly under average, but ok.
As as soon as we reach 4/5, its's getting very good, and everything including at least one 6 and one 5 is starting into ridiculous territory.
The 5 or 6 is also where the second number starts getting less important as long as we choose the bigger number for damage. And as soon as we enter double 7 and up, it becomes a boardwipe with added ritual effect.
There you go. Do you agree? Do you disagree? Did I misinterprete something? I'm looking forwoard to your answers.
The average result on a single d12 roll is 6.5. because we can't deal in half-rolls, we can assume one will be a 6 and one will be a 7.
So for 7mv, you are theoretically able to, on average, deal 6 damage to each creature "for free". The issue, however, is that for an average to be realized, multiple rolls must be made. In EDH, you get to cast this spell once unless you have ways to copy it or recur it.
Yes, you can roll a 1 and a 3. You can also roll a 12 and a 12.
Consider it like this, 50% of the time your roll is less than average (6 or less) and 50% of the time your roll is more than average (7 or greater) on any one roll. Now people can say that your chances of, say, rolling two 10s are drastically lower than rolling one 10, and while mathematically this is true, your first and second roll have no barring on each other. How you roll on your first die is not going to have any effect on your second die.
This is the type of card you'd want to run in gimmick decks to take advantage of copying it. Krark, the Thumbless would be a good Commander but you'd want to be in Izzet at minimum to really take advantage of everything, such as Ral, Storm Conduit, Mirari, Double Vision, Swarm Intelligence, etc.
Generating infinite mana in Izzet is easy so these high MVs are not difficult to attain. But then you must ask why you aren't playing something larger to just win the game?
Also Pixie Guide is worth a shout-out there...
My opinion? It's a fun D&D themed card for a fun D&D Precon and nothing more. Doesn't have a whole lot of utility outside of that setting. Even something like Charmbreaker Devils barely assists you as you could pull anything else you might have in the deck.
So you need to ask yourself: Are you playing to have fun, or to win? If you are playing to win, the card is a shim for your wobbly table. If you're playing to have fun, fun is subjective; If you enjoy it, it's as valuable as Dockside Extortionist.
August 18, 2021 5:29 a.m.
Volcanic Fallout is an instant, and can't be countered. I think that this card is great in most games. With that being said if you roll anything that kills what needs to be killed at the table then its a good card. If a bunch of 1/1s are a problem then rolling a 1 is great. It always comes down to the situation. But I feel given the most common board state you want to roll a 4 or higher. And anything 8 - 12 is ramp so that makes it pretty good. Buy its all chance. It being sorcery speed kills alot of its power but that's negated by its chance to ramp you making you want to cast it in your main phase anyway. If I had to give it a score from 1 - 10 and 10 is the best and Blasphemous Act is the poster child card to compare it to. I'd give it 8
August 18, 2021 5:44 a.m. Edited.
The average result from a single D12 is not 6.5, all numbers have an equal chance to be rolled. If you didn't have a D12 to roll and you roll two D6 then you'll average roll a combined total 6 but that's cheating since the card says roll a D12. The card does say roll two D12, but since you choose one for damage and one for Treasure I think you will often find yourself choosing the higher result for treasures. I'd look at it like this then. Avarage Damage will vary from 1 - 6 and average Treasure will vary from 6 - 12. But it's really 1 - 12 for both results. Sorry about the double post
August 18, 2021 6:19 a.m. Edited.
To find the average, it is all values added, divided by the total possible given.
(1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11+12)/12 = 6.5
Or "mean". I hear all the time in D&D forums people using "average" in place of "mean".
So you have a 50% chance to be less than 6.5 and 50% chance of being more than 6.5, meaning 50% at 6 or less and 50% at 7 or more.
August 18, 2021 6:23 a.m. Edited.
I have to roll all those number to get that average so no that's incorrect lol. Pick up a d12 and roll it 12 times and tell me you rolled a 1 a 2 a 3 a 4 a 5 a 6 a 7 a 8 a 9 a 10 a 11 and a 12 and I'll tell you that you are a lucky person and should be gambling
August 18, 2021 6:27 a.m.
If I understand correctly, the expected mathematical mean after n die rolls would be 6.5. But as I stated, I consider the card ok if it hits two 3s or better. I didn't properly write it, but a mean of more than 2.0 between the two rolls would count into that. So rolling a 1 and a 4 or greater already is an ok result. So while the expected mean might be 6.5, the card already starts being fine with lower result, which says I have more than 50% chance to have a fine result.
August 18, 2021 6:31 a.m.
griffstick Chance on each number of eyes is indeed equal, which is why the average number you will roll is the total sum of results multiplied by the chance of each roll. So (1/12)x1, + (1/12)x2 +... all the way to 12. Which sums up to (1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11+12) × (1/12) = 78 ÷ 12 = most certainly 6.5, that's how averages work.
In the same vein, a d6 has an average of 3.5 [(1+2+3+4+5+6)÷6 = 21/6 = 3.5], therefor 2d6 has an average of 7, which makes sense, because you can't roll 1 with two dice. Which is why 2d6 to replace a d12 is absolute cheating.
August 18, 2021 6:34 a.m.
Another way to consider this is the most likely toughness on board is 4 or lower as that's the most common printed value. So you'd need to roll at least a 4 on something to wrath the board.
My concern is that if you have relatively small creatures in play, and your opponent has some big stuff, you end up wrathing yourself and leaving yourself open to their board, which is now left in tact.
To me, that's a very big risk.
That's why the damage die progression chart in D&D exists, plakjekaas ;)
You get weird things such as going from 1d8 to 1d10 to 2d6. It bumps both the highest AND lowest up, as it should moving from Medium to Large to Huge.
August 18, 2021 6:36 a.m.
There is no average because you are not rolling that many times you are rolling 1 time for damage and 1 time for Treasure. That's not avarage.
August 18, 2021 6:37 a.m.
TypicalTimmy: I didn't know about X/4 being that frequently printed, but that's important information. It tells us this is a card with high cmc that you want to play in a deck that either doesn't need it's creatures that much or has a higher-than-average size on the majority of its creatures.
Which is perfectly fine as I uncluded it in Moraug.
griffstick: The direct translation from my language for this kind of "average" is "expected result". Which means you roll a die a big amount of times and calculate the mean.
August 18, 2021 6:43 a.m.
The card doesn't say roll two d12's add up the result and divide them by 2
August 18, 2021 6:43 a.m.
Yeah, the 6.5 is talking about the chance of any outcome when you roll a single die. So any time you roll a single d12, the outcome will be 6.5 on average. Which is relevant here, because the single die value effects the spell. So in the most general case, you'll get 6.5 treasures and 6.5 damage on average.
However, When you cast this spell many times, and you average how much damage and how many treasures you would get, there's a decision bias because you'd want either more treasure or more damage in each instance of casting the spell, which will mess with the statistics a bit.
August 18, 2021 6:44 a.m.
Each number has a 8.333% chance to be rolled. There is no average because you have to use both results.
August 18, 2021 6:51 a.m. Edited.
When you roll a single die. What would you expect the value to be? There 1/12th chance on a 1, 1/12th chance on a 2, 1/12th chance on a 3, 1/12th chance on a 4, 1/12th chance on a 5, 1/12th chance on a 6, 1/12th chance on a 7, 1/12th chance on an 8,1/12th chance on a 9, 1/12th chance on a 10, 1/12th chance on a 11 and 1/12th chance on a 12. I hope you agree on at least that.
So what do I expect the result to be when I roll a d12? Exactly that: (1/12)x1, + (1/12)x2 +... all the way to 12. A shorter mathematical way to write that sum is (1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11+12) × (1/12). Which equals 6.5. So whenever I roll a single die, I can roll 1, I can roll 7, I can roll 12, all in equal chances, but I expect it to be around 6.5
August 18, 2021 7:11 a.m.
griffstick: While there is a 1/12 chance of rolling any particular number, looking at het average die roll is a good way to assess this card. And since these numbers don't interact with each other (since it's not the sum of two dice), taking the mean is the most accurate.
Additionally, running 1000 dice rolls (using a RNG and Excel) calculates the average around 6.5. There is some variance there, partially due to the RNG that excel will be using and partilaly because it's random. But most of the simulations run at around the 6.5 number.
So what this means is that as OP plays this card (multiple times across multiple games), the average dice roll for each will trend towards 6.5 for each mode. So the assessment of the card using either 6 or 7 as the average roll across the life of hte card in the deck is a perfectly fine assessment.
Sure, in the moment it doesn't feel great when you roll snake eyes and I think everybody agrees on that. But that's always going to be the gamble here. Thus why people are throwing the mean around.
As for the actual viability of the card itself, it seems ok, but the problem with a high mana card which in turn provides you with mana is that it's still a high mana card. Meaning that you still need 7 mana to wrath, compared with a lot of cheaper wraths.
August 18, 2021 7:44 a.m.
I am not goinng to get into the math of it but just from a general stand point this is the type of card I would typically run in specific decks. For instance Kalain, Reclusive Painter in which I care about treasure tokens. Otherwise I usually prefer Blasphemous Act and Chain Reaction as my go to red boardwipes.
But seeing as you are fine with 3 or more I’d say the card is worth running. It’s always fun to mix it up as well so I’d say its worth using to see how it fits in ur playgroup.
August 18, 2021 9:42 a.m.
Wow, we really got a great discussion rolling.
The card originally took the slot of Draconic Intervention in my Moraug list, but after all the great input, I'm actually considering running both. I have no Chain Reaction, but both Blasphemous Act and Hour of Devastation are already in there. The deck is somewhat light on creatures, and the important ones are p/t 5 and upwards. It wants rituals anyway, so Endeavor still seems fitting.
August 18, 2021 9:49 a.m.
Y'all are debating the difference between odds and chance essentially. Haha. The chance of you rolling any given result is 1/12. The odds dictate that each time you roll, your most likely result will be somewhere between 6 and 7. Terms are fun. Nothing in the world of statistics works the way it should, and I love it
August 18, 2021 11:19 a.m.
Really, none of our opinions matter. As long as our have fun with the card, you should play it.
Fun is what matters, here.
It would take a very long time to explain but if people would like to know, since I work in the plastics industry, I can explain to you how and why statistics don't matter with physical dice rolls ;)
TLDR - the forming process is flawed and they don't cool evenly.
August 18, 2021 12:06 p.m.
I quite like this card, the more I think about it.
I almost posted a little bit of a rant about how bad red's boardwipes are, but I really do enjoy the design space WotC have filled.
I don't think I'll be playing Reckless Endeavor regularly, still feels a bit too niche for that, but I'm happy it exists and am prepared to get blown out by it ;)
August 18, 2021 12:45 p.m.
TypicalTimmy: Well, I guess I'll have no chance of changing that. But I finally decided to leave it in. Only in part because I already bought two D12s ;)
Omniscience_is_life: I'm glad I was able to convince someone. Do you agree on my suggested "quality steps" or would you see the thresholds somewhere else?
August 18, 2021 1:16 p.m.
It reminds me of Brass's Bounty but it feels like it is better than that I really like it and for sure will be playing in in decks.
August 18, 2021 3:25 p.m.
seshiro_of_the_orochi I personally feel like rolling 2 sub-6s is pretty awful, but anything above that feels nice.
That's all, 2 categories is all I feel the card merits :)
August 18, 2021 6:43 p.m.
If you don't want to sit there rolling and recording die, Google has a wonderful dice roller which feels truly random. Some online tend to skew which is noticable after dozens or hundreds of tests but Google seems pretty legit.
August 18, 2021 6:52 p.m.
griffstick: The similarity is there, Bounty's in the deck, as well.
Omniscience_is_life: Makes sense, I'll see how it feels in a game in case Covid will evwr let me play a game again (I'm fine, but an LGS with a cellar room has it's disadvantages).
TypicalTimmy: OR I could do something that's actual fun, like klicking the random button on scryfall for 20 minutes straight :D
August 19, 2021 12:09 a.m.
When I introduced my girlfriend from like 6 years ago to D&D, she bought me a giant bag of dice. I went to an arts and craft store and bought a little wooden chest and that's what I transport them in.
Call me old fashion, but I'd rather throw die into a wooden box than click a button on a computer. And there's something aesthetically pleasing about hearing clattering die and seeing the worn edges and paint flake off of well loved cuboids of plastic.
Plus, when I have to roll 70d6, I wanna have a ton of fun and make everyone wait. ;)
August 19, 2021 11:15 p.m.
I do that by rolling 10d6 at a time.
A character I have can deal 10d6 damage up to 16 times per day without magic equipment or spells to boost his modifiers. There's a feat in the mode I play that says rather than do 10d6 a total of 16 different times over 16 different rounds, you can instead expend an extra use of it and combine them.
At 1st you can expend 1 additional use and do 2x the die. At 4th and every 4 levels thereafter you can expend an additional use and add it on.
So at 5th level you would normally deal 3d6, so now you can expend three total uses (original use, +1 for 1st and +1 for 4th) and deal 9d6.
The benefit is obvious. The drawback is you burn through your uses exceedingly fast.
At 19th level you deal 10d6 damage.
At 20th level you get to expend 7 total uses.
August 19, 2021 11:22 p.m.
TypicalTimmy: I can perfectly reöate to that. I've been gifted multiple dice bags by my wife over the years, with the most current being pretty big and mostly full of spindowns and d6. It's a great feeling to feel the weight.
August 19, 2021 11:34 p.m.
seshiro_of_the_orochi, I absolutely fell in love with the Royal purple and gold spindowns from Eldraine so I went to my LGS and spent an hour in their dice box scouring three full sets of the same style.
I unfortunately only got two, as one set was incomplete. Regardless, they are beautiful.
I also have that candy-corn orange and black set. Those are my most beloved, but they have terrible rolls lmao
August 19, 2021 11:46 p.m.
I don't have the eldraine one, but DTKs spindowns also is this translucent purple. I adore the Kaldheim bundle D20. That thing is a beauty.
August 19, 2021 11:56 p.m.
Yeeees, these are what I have. Two complete sets.
$15 on Amazon for a set of 1 die each.
I got each die for $0.50 at the LGS. ;)
August 19, 2021 11:57 p.m.
seshiro_of_the_orochi, Tarkir is my most beloved world and I don't have any die from them :(
August 19, 2021 11:58 p.m.
TypicalTimmy: That's a shame, I'm sorry about that.
August 19, 2021 11:59 p.m.
seshiro_of_the_orochi, huh, do... Do you hear that?
That s- that sounds like my wallet opening up on Amazon... Lol.
Dragons of Tarkir is my favorite of the three sets in the Tarkir block. Maybe next time I go on a Magic splurg I'll get some bundles to get some die.
Now I thought they only recently began doing the larger die? Tarkir used the smaller, normal sized ones right?
August 20, 2021 12:02 a.m.
That's correct. I got my purplr one from the Temur coloured...Event Deck is what I think they were called.
August 20, 2021 12:10 a.m.
That would explain it. I don't believe I ever bought an event deck, like from any set.
August 20, 2021 12:18 a.m.
TypicalTimmy: I'm pretty sure that was the only one I boght. I really wanted most of the cards for other decks, and the list was actually pretty ok.