You'll fall really far behind.They can play Tarmogoyf plus Thoughtseize, Inquisition of Kozilek, Fatal Push, Lightning Bolt, Traverse the Ulvenwald or any number of horrible 1 drops that will swell that Goyf once it resolves. All this on turn 2. Bolt the Bird.
August 30, 2017 4:56 p.m.
Goyf plus one drop is very strong, and the one I thought of at first was turn 2 Liliana of the Veil, but there's a bigger problem with Abrade over Lightning Bolt. If you bolt the bird turn 1, you can start advancing your own strategy on turn 2, with two mana. If you run Abrade, you're giving up your turn two to kill the bird. In the first two turns of the game, the guy running Lightning Bolt can kill a bird and then drop a Goyf, ScOoze, etc. If you run Abrade, in the first two turns you'll kill the bird and then maybe were able to drop a dork of your own, or maybe hand disruption. Someone running Lightning Bolt simply has more resources to use throughout the match, since he is saving one mana every time he Bolts over someone using Abrade.
August 30, 2017 5:07 p.m.
August 30, 2017 5:13 p.m.
From Ponza, you'll be facing their T2 Mwonvuli Acid-Moss, Chandra, Torch of Defiance, Chameleon Colossus, or whatever. And from Mono-G Devotion, you'll be facing their T2 Garruk Wildspeaker plus whatever else they case (if +1) or a 3/3 Beast Token (if -1).
August 30, 2017 5:19 p.m.
clayperce how do they turn two a Wildspeaker off of the Elf?
August 30, 2017 6:31 p.m.
T1 elf, T2 Utopia Sprawl a forest, float 2, tap elf to untap the enchanted land, make 2 more mana for garruk.
August 30, 2017 6:35 p.m.
Also players are more likely to keep mana light hands of they have a mana dork. So if you bolt the bird turn 1 you may cut them off of mana and prevent them from playing. Therefore getting a free win
August 30, 2017 6:47 p.m.
It's not Magical Christmasland either. Ignoring mulligans (and Bolts!), Ponza has 4 Mana on T2 16% of the time. Mono-G Devotion is even more, since they have more Green sources.
August 30, 2017 7:10 p.m.
I am worried about two cards Grafdigger's Cage & Aether Vial.
They both tend to be terrible if i have no answers, when i try to play Platinum Angel of of Madcap Experiment.
Grafdigger's Cage is game on the spot
Aether Vial tend to result in a loss when sooner or later it puts a Flickerwisp or Harbinger of the Tides in play.
I am not that worried about ponza, since they tend to be to slow, and pack far fewer answers than what is needed to kill the angel.
Chandra, Torch of Defiance is bad, but it can be countered, especially if the player is greedy and plays it early into stuff like Spell Pierce
Luckily the same is true about Liliana of the Veil
And in both cases its unlikely i won't have mana for countering them since i don't really care about countering the stuff that is generally seen as threatening like Tarmogoyf.
So are there other broken things, that could lead to a very fast game loss (t3, t4 at worst), or removal, that result from a mana dork being un answered on turn one?
August 30, 2017 8:31 p.m.
Unless your heart is just set on running Abrade. Then seriously, go for it! I mean, nobody has yet placed in any competitive Modern event with the card, but that doesn't remotely mean it's not possible.
Good luck either way!
August 30, 2017 9:06 p.m.
I would go with Ancient Grudge, but i am already splashing black for Extirpate, and i don't want to reduce the number of my Islands in a deck running Blood Moon if possible.
Maybe Ancient Grudge is worth playing a single Breeding Pool - still i love my islands, and fear the backlash created by blood moon.
August 30, 2017 9:20 p.m.
Bolt the bird before the bird bolts you.
August 30, 2017 10:45 p.m.
Always bolt the bird, plain and simple.
August 31, 2017 5:52 a.m.
As far i am aware Ad Nauseam decks don't run any kind of dorks for acceleration, instead they tend to run Lotus Bloom & Pentad Prism - and against the latter Abrade is much more useful than Lightning Bolt.
Not to mention the fact that i am willing and able going into counter battles with them, they are not the only deck that runs 4 Pact of Negation, on the other hand i run a miriad of other counters, including stuff that stopps Boseiju, Who Shelters All dead in its tracks -> Glorious End, beside other goodies of course.
I also have my doubts about Scapeshift decks winning on t2, even on the play...However i am no expert on that, so please enlighten me! How do they do that?
August 31, 2017 8:12 a.m.
I wasn't making a point about T2 especially, more about answering the 'should I bolt a T1 bird?'. And indeed, my bad, Abrade is useful against Ad Nauseam.
I don't know what you're talking about with your counters and Angels though, I assume it's your UR list? If so, linking it wouldn't be a bad thing ;)
August 31, 2017 8:26 a.m.
Well true that i am mainly intrested in the value of removing birds on t1 compared to removing them on T2.
Naively i thought that making the question a bit more general - making a question about the strongest possible effects that can result from being a turn late to bolt - would aid others beside me...
...in the end i should have been more upfront from the start.