Xerox Theory
General forum
Posted on Oct. 6, 2020, 5:32 a.m. by defamagraphy1
Is Xerox Theory applicable without being able to use "free" spells?
The idea behind the theory being that for every 4 cheap 1 to 2 mana cantrips you can cut two lands
I don't know about anyone else but in playtesting it always feels bad. What are your thoughts on this?
defamagraphy1 says... #3
Eh. Not so much free cantrips, just meaning 1 to 2 mana cantrips. It was a style of play back in the day more commonly seen in things like Izzet Tempo decks and spells, or older formats like modern and vintage.
Older formats have access to free spells which makes the Xerox theory function. The idea is that, because of cheap draw, you can cut lands and still get access to lands and see better spells.
However I've seen the Standard format over the past some odd years or so packing upwards to 26 lands despite having access to some of those cantrips.
So, I guess does it need to function specifically on a low curve or with free spells? Have you tried it?
October 6, 2020 7:22 a.m.
sergiodelrio says... #4
defamagraphy1 well, that's exactly what I'm saying. When your cantrips are CMC 1, your landbase must ensure that you actually have an appropriate land ON TURN 1. There is a minumum land threshold for lands in non-free cantrip decks.
Here's an example: You build a deck that tops out at 4 mana and you want 4 lands on turn 4, so you default to 24 lands. Now you add 4x Serum Visions and can safely go down to 23 lands. An extreme counterexample where this wouldn't work is when your cantrips cost 4 mana themselves.
The essence of what I'm trying to say here, I guess, is that you can cut as many lands as you want, until your landbase is at a # that can still cast the cantrips on the earliest turn possible. You can't go down to 10 lands running only 1-mana cantrips (and I guess there's still an exception for that, but in general)
So in conclusion, yes the theory applies, but within limits.
October 6, 2020 7:38 a.m. Edited.
TriusMalarky says... #5
I think the basic theory works, but it needs more statistics. There could be lots and lots of hours of work done to find an optimal cantrip-to-land count.
The main problem is that the deck spends a lot of mana on those cantrips, meaning it absolutely needs high quality spells for low or zero mana. With Force of Negation in Modern I can see some of it starting to assemble, but we really need some slightly better counter magic and also better cantrips. Opt and Visions are not great when it comes to Xerox.
We could also take the Green plan, which is much more sorcery speed due to its focus on creatures but Adventurous Impulse and Oath of Nissa are some of the best cantrips in the game.
October 6, 2020 10:17 a.m.
defamagraphy1 says... #6
It's what I'm attempting to do, it's just there's not enough data on the Xerox idea. I'm attempting to get access to at least 4 to 7 lands without a heavy land count. I already know DFC's will help, but at the same time they're too situational to use more on the spell side. So it leaves a rather undefined value to attempt cheap draw and deck thinning into your threat.
7 is probably unreasonable, but is it at all possible?
October 6, 2020 12:48 p.m.
sergiodelrio says... #7
It's actually not so hard to check. I use Stattrek for these things, to see how likely I'll be drawing stuff.
I just fed this with the following data, to see if 7 lands check out:
Population size (deck size): 56 (being very generous here as I'm factoring in a playset of Street Wraiths - and no, no Mishra's Bauble as the draw is delayed and you'd miss your first land drop)
Number of successes in Population (how many lands in the deck): 7
Sample size (your hand at turn x // cards drawn up to a certain point): 7 (starting hand)
Number of successes in population ('I'm looking for X specific cards in this amount of cards I've drawn): 1 (so we're looking for 1 land)
Result for the probability to draw 1 or more lands in your opener under these circumstances is roughly 63% which means you'll have a functional opener in 3 out of 5 hands. Not sure this is good enough, but leaning no.
15 lands will give you a probability just over 90% which is the least you should be aiming for so early and that's still factoring in the Street Wraiths, but NOT factoring in more than 1 color deck/lands,colorless lands, tapped lands.
Might work with some fringe weird combo that plays 0 cost artifacts and pitch- or free spells, but even the most aggressive 1-drop burn list will not go below 17 lands without access to free spells or substitute lands.
I encourage you to play around with the Stattrek calculator yourself.
October 6, 2020 4:04 p.m.
defamagraphy1 says... #8
Hmm. I think I will. If I can pull it off it might be quite interesting
sergiodelrio says... #2
If you have no free cantrips, imho, the # of lands can never go below a # that gives you a functional starting hand, which allows you to actually access/play the cantrips.
Free cantrips just have the starting hand variable already factored in, as you have immediate access to them with 0 lands.
October 6, 2020 5:36 a.m.