Zendikar Fetches - A Time to Buy?
Economics forum
Posted on Dec. 18, 2014, 4:52 p.m. by MangoPunch
Zendikar fetches are down almost 50% off of their peaks with playsets attainable for $80-$100. The grind lower started last spring, with the real hit driven by Khans' allied fetches and speculation that they will be reprinted. Here is my take on the situation:
Scenario 1: Zendikar fetches are reprinted in Dragons of Tarkir. With Khans, the Onslaught fetches sold off 60-70% from their peaks and are now trading at 2-2.5x their newer counterparts. I don't know the relative sizes of onslaught or zendikar sets or other micro drivers, but my basic take is that in this scenario, we could see some downside to the more expensive Zendikar fetches, but even then it seems limited. Khans fetch lands are at $10-$14 and Z-Fetches already at only 2x this level.
Scenario 2: Zendikar fetches are re-printed in Modern Masters 2015. Limited run = fewer cards - so in this scenario there is likely less downside from scenario 1; or could even be upside.
Scenario 3: Zendikar fetches are not re-printed. The lands probably don't rally to last springs' levels but their should still be some upside.
I think that with Dragons of Tarkir being a non-tri-set scenario 1 seems increasingly less likely. And even if scenario 1 occurs, it seems like downside is limited. Is this a reasonable analysis? Is now the time to buy?
Rasta_Viking29 says... #3
They will not be reprinted in Kahns block or MM2015. Modern cards should start rising soon in anticipation of PT FRF on 2/6/15, now is the time to buy.
December 18, 2014 5:16 p.m.
Verdant Catacombs is still like $120 for 4. That one hasn't changed a ton. I got 4 for $120 like 3 months ago.
December 18, 2014 5:31 p.m.
mathimus55 says... #6
I think if they were to be reprinted then it'll either be in the large 3rd set of this block or in the final core set. I'd lean towards the 3rd set so that they finish the land cycle that they always seem adamant on completing and so they'll be in standard a bit longer thank Khans fetches. It's just my theory based off what they've done in the past.
I don't think they'll fill rare land slots in MM2015 with the fetches, they'll probably try to add as much flavor to the set as possible so the draft environment isn't so worried about mana fixing
December 18, 2014 5:43 p.m.
It depends on the color fetch. Verdant Catacombs and Scalding Tarn haven't changed much, but Arid Mesa and Marsh Flats have come down a decent amount. I just got 4 Mesas for $80.
December 18, 2014 5:44 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #8
vault makes no sense whatsoever from a money standpoint for Wizards. Zen fetches will come back in the first set of a new Standard block.
December 18, 2014 5:44 p.m.
Yeh well Arid Mesa and Marsh Flats are less played so that makes perfect sense.
December 18, 2014 5:48 p.m.
CommanderOfBolas says... #10
@Rasta_Viking29: They could definitely be printed in Dragons of tarkir (I doubt FRF because it is a small set and you have to keep limited in mind. lands aren't great to be pulling for limited). WotC makes money by selling sealed product. It really doesn't matter if they sell x amount of Dragons and y amount of the next set, or y amount of Dragons and x amount of the next set. either way they will make the same amount. There is no reason not to reprint them, but plenty of reasons to reprint the (for example, WotC's policy on completing cycles of lands in blocks)
December 18, 2014 5:59 p.m.
DTK is a large set that will be drafted over a longer period than most third sets, and it will rotate out at a date later than KTK/FRF. It essentially forms its own block with M16. Third sets don't typically sell as well, but there's enough unique about this set that I don't think we can use history to guide us here. And on top of that fetches would help drive sales of DTK, ensuring success for this particular structure.
From a game play perspective, It makes sense to put dual lands within the DTK/M16 "block" as well, otherwise mana fixing will become drastically worse in a post KTK/FRF world.
These arguments don't guarantee fetches, of course. It makes most sense to me for them to complete the cycle in Khans block. I mainly just disagree with claims that they definitely won't be in DTK.
December 18, 2014 6:02 p.m.
MangoPunch says... #12
@ChiefBell in April Verdant Catacombs median was $240 for a playset, so down 50%, in the OP I was talking about TCG low which is $26, so ~$100 for a playset. Scalding Tarn even went from $94 med to $50 med, it's obviously outside of the $80-$100 range of the other 4, but still off a lot.
December 18, 2014 6:06 p.m.
I honestly think it's kind of a toss up right now. On one hand, it makes sense for them to print Zen fetches in this block to complete the cycle, which they've stated is important. On the other hand, there have been rumblings about a Return to Zendikar block for quite some time now, so it would also make sense to save fetch reprints until a RTZ block.
December 18, 2014 6:07 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #14
CommanderOfBolas WotC will sell more sealed product by printing the Zen Fetches in the first set of a new block. Printing them now would decrease the demand for KTK. People have a reason to buy KTK packs now even with the market saturated with singles, they will need a reason in a year or two as well.
The complete land cycle refers to all color pairs having access to an equal amount of fixing I believe.
December 18, 2014 6:11 p.m.
MangoPunch - that's true but April was a freak spike - they weren't that high for too long and they've never been that high before in their many years of existence.
December 18, 2014 6:13 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #16
I think I paid about 160 for my set (way before the days of the modern spike last year). 40$ each is fair & at the time Deathrite Shaman was legal, so worth the cost of fetches.
December 18, 2014 9:07 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #17
was referring to Verdant Catacombs. Marsh Flats was like 30 a pop.
December 18, 2014 9:09 p.m.
They printed all 10 shocks in one block so I don't see the financial arguent really impeding a decision to reprint all 10 fetch lands.
December 19, 2014 9:21 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #19
jraynor that was required to have a balanced block, not true of fetches in KTK.
Zen Fetches should come back in RTZ, which will happen within the next 2 blocks. I could be wrong obviously but pretty sure I'm right. WotC does love them a good curveball. Probably love money more though.
-Fulcrum says... #2
I would say no. However, I have little to no knowledge of how the MTG economy works. My reasoning for saying no is that I find it highly likely for the other 5 fetches to be reprinted in Fate Reforged. Even if they are not, they will not increase in price that much because the reprint of the Onslaught fetches has dropped the pressure on the ZEN fetches in Modern. Scalding Tarn may go up quite a bit though if they don't receive the reprint though.
Why does everyone think fetches will be in Dragons of Tarkir instead of Fate Reforged?
December 18, 2014 5:03 p.m.