What's the floor for MM17 staples?

Economics forum

Posted on March 20, 2017, 2:43 p.m. by KB2187

I'm curious at what people think the floor of prices is going to be for the enemy fetches, Goyf, Cavern of Souls, Liliana, etc.

APPLE01DOJ says... #2

Waiting on Blood Moon to drop myself.

I think Goyf will end up around 60 and then climb. Lilly will probably hit 60 as well.

March 20, 2017 3:11 p.m.

Atony1400 says... #3

@APPLE01DOJ, Lilliana is already in the $60s and we're not anywhere near the floor yet, I think she will hit $35 before she begins climbing again.

March 20, 2017 3:15 p.m.

Wondering that myself. I'd love to see the fetches hit the 15-20 range, like the KTK fetches shortly after release. Don't know that that's gonna happen, especially for Scalding Tarn and Misty Rainforest, but I doubt we're at the floor now.

March 20, 2017 3:24 p.m.

GeminiSpartanX says... #5

I think the floor on the mythics might not get as low as we would want. The rares have plenty of room to move in the next few months, but I don't see Lily or goyf going down more than $10 more than what they're at currently.

March 20, 2017 3:25 p.m.

saj0219 says... #6

Atony1400, I highly doubt Liliana hits $35. I'd be surprised to see her drop under $50 honestly. A fair amount of price suppression was happening before her spoiler because of the anticipation of a reprint; remember, she was essentially a $100 card for a while. As a mythic, she won't see as much additional copies in circulation. She's already up nearly $6 from where she was over the weekend (most copies are at $68ish now instead of $62ish a few days ago). Now, I'm sure she'll dip below where she is now, but $35 sounds like a pie in the sky dreamland scenario.

March 20, 2017 3:26 p.m.

pskinn01 says... #7

Depends on actually supply, which has been speculated on but no definite answer. With no grand prix, there were more boxes distributed to the distributors, which means more available to the stores. But how long it stays a free flow to sales distribution will determine how much the prices will fall. If stores are still getting cases at current prices for the next two months at the same rate, then yes, prices will dip lower. But the grand prix put a lot of product out of the last mm set (prob over 100,000 cases). But the problem is, when prices keep falling, stores stop cracking packs, and so do most players. Which is why the eternal masters was selling for way under msrp. The expected value at the end of supply was way lower than msrp to the point where it wasn't worth people opening them.

Yes this set is more fun to draft, but most drafters can't continue to pay $30-40 for a draft. And wizards is smart, and prob will try to stop printing before prices drop to the point where the cards won't be a drawing power for future sales.

Was told by multiple local stores that after their first shipment that it would be first come first serve, and the distributor could not guarantee future orders could be filled. Was also told they might be able to get more through wotc. I think wizards prob wants supply gone before next set release, as it would take away it's standard money cow.

So as I see it, prices on the staples dropped a lot as soon as they were spoiled. The mythic ones won't drop a whole much more. The rare ones will drop as long as they are drafted each week, and start rising shortly there after. The uncommon ones will see the biggest hit and won't recover very quickly if at all.

March 20, 2017 5:43 p.m.

I'm not sure about other places, but I have been following the low end prices for mm17 on tcgplayer since release day. Most cards seem to be doing well and slowly dropping. Snapcaster though bottomed out at 30 a day ago and is now around 36 for the low with shipping.

Blood moon is on the way back up a tad. The rest of the fetches and damnation are about even. It's snapcaster that I would be worried the most if you want to get your play sets. Based on the amount of listing and copies available for each card snapcaster is lower. I don't have any stdevs or variances to justify the difference but it is noticeable. 33 vendors for snap and 72 for goyf.

I wonder if people are not trading their copies in or something else is keeping numbers low. Hopefully we will see numbers go up and competitive pricing return because this isn't a whole lot of additional copies to keep prices down. Even if everyone has their snappies people will still see the low supply and jump on it. I think we will see more copies pop up after this weekend but things seem suspiciously slow.

I have my tin foil hat on right now guys. Not for any particular reason though.

March 21, 2017 12:30 a.m.

McSleuthburger says... #9

Im waiting to see what happens over the weekend. Im sure there will be more packs being opened this weekend so there will be more circulation. and maybe prices dip for a day or two. But like what was said above, it all depends on the overall supply that will tell us where prices will go. If we have a nice print run the prices could dip some more. If if stops soon I expect prices to shoot up right after the announcement because people will probably horde what they have hoping prices will rise quickly.

March 21, 2017 5:36 p.m.

Korombos says... #10

I've seen prices dip the last two Saturday mornings. I hope they dip again this Saturday, because I'm about to grab some fetches.

March 27, 2017 1:46 p.m.

There were 42 vendors with Liliana of the Veil around 11 today and now there are only 21 vendors at 3:22. The min now is 79.99 with and without shipping. All copies under 80 were either bought or pulled from listing. The same has been happening with the other high end cards, those being over 20 dollars. I think the floor has been reached and things are going to back up. I wouldn't expect prices to go down that much from here on the chase cards. Cards with sub 100 vendors just don't have the competition to drive prices down, new copies aren't coming in fast enough.

March 27, 2017 3:29 p.m.

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