Spellskite Expectations
Economics forum
Posted on May 25, 2015, 7:16 a.m. by BMWilliams
The facts: Spellskite is currently the #1 sideboard card in modern (about 33%) and is main boarded in several modern decks (about 14%). It also sees some play in EDH and legacy. before gatecrash it was $3 and prior to this reprint it hit $25. It can't be reprinted in anything but a set with phyrexia or another modern masters or similar supplemental product. After it's dropped I think this could be the best long term growth card in the set. Thoughts?
BMWilliams says... #3
Spellskite is at about $15 currently and probably will drop to about $12. if it rises to about $20 that's an $8 gain on a $12 investment (66%). If Tarmogoyf drops to $140 and raises to $180 that's a $40 gain on a $140 investment (29%). Tarmogoyf is also more likely to be reprinted again in the next modern masters. Do you think that these numbers are unreasonable as projections?
May 25, 2015 7:45 a.m.
No those prices are not reasonable. You are looking at ebay valuations which are typically lower. Small fluctuations in low prices results in large percentage changes, which are warping your figures.
It is also super hard to predict what ebay will do in the future. I can see Skite dropping from $15 to $12 online. Do I see it rising by over 50% of its value again when its only ever played as a 1 or 2 of? No I don't think so. I think that projected gain is tenuous to say the least. On the other hand with a mythic like goyf you are almost guaranteed to see that increase.
With rares you just don't know what they'll do in the long term. With mythics it's a bit easier to predict.
May 25, 2015 7:50 a.m.
Essentially there is evidence to suggest that he will drop very, very low, but not a ton of evidence to suggest that he will dramatically rise.
May 25, 2015 7:54 a.m.
BMWilliams says... #6
Good point. Do you think foils would be a safer alternative? I don't trust Tarmogoyf to not see consistent reprinting and the other mythics are pretty specific to a small number of decks. Maybe Vendilion Clique.
May 25, 2015 8:21 a.m.
Foils would probably be a much safer investment yes. They are far rarer and should be low right now.
We can't say whether mm3 will happen or not so we can't base estimations on it. Even if it does happen we can't say that the old printings of goyf will also fall in price because generally that doesn't happen (future sight printing still goes for $180 despite mm2 version going for roughly $150). There are so many 'what ifs' there that I think it's not safe to say much either way. However we do know that in the interim period between mm2 and a future mm3 goyf will rise again.
May 25, 2015 9:02 a.m.
I pulled a foil Spellskite. So should i keep or sell? Im not interested in holding on to it for 2-3 years, but maybe a couple of months..
May 25, 2015 9:18 a.m.
Well it's logical to think it'll be at its lowest right now, so it would be the worst time to sell. Keep for a while.
ChiefBell says... #2
No because whilst it is used often it's mainly a 1 or 2 of. Therefore it shouldn't reach any really spectacular heights. It's also reprinted as rare which means there will be a lot going around.
Better off going for hard to find mythics. Tarmogoyf is one but has been reprinted a few times now. However it is a 4-of in almost every single deck that wants it. Since it's fallen to about $150-$160 you can expect to make between $20-$40 off it in the long term. I do not think you will make $20-$40 off spellskite.
Find a mythic that sees heavy play and hasn't been printed many times - that'll be the best for long term growth.
May 25, 2015 7:28 a.m.