JaceVP is more than Snappy?!
Economics forum
Posted on Oct. 8, 2015, 10:19 p.m. by Kala
Ok, this is getting crazy... The new Jace isn't that good.
Tyrant-Thanatos says... #3
Hot damn, I didn't even notice this price spike. As an owner of a Jace, Vryn's Prodigy Flip who doesn't intend to run him, when should I consider trying to sell him? Now? Or will he keep climbing?
October 8, 2015 10:53 p.m.
It's unlikely he'll maintain his price. He's just the subject of some serious hype atm.
October 8, 2015 10:55 p.m.
Tyrant-Thanatos: I'd sell him. It's really unlikely he'll go any higher.
October 8, 2015 11:03 p.m.
xxSkedz24xx says... #6
I mean to be fair, Snap only went up to 85 because it wasn't reprinted. Once people stopped caring that it hadn't been reprinted, the price dropped to the 60ish I believe Snap is now
October 8, 2015 11:25 p.m.
@Tyrant-Thanatos I'd just like to point out that since origins was released there have been numerous threads asking that very question about this very card. The answer everyone always gets from dozens of people is to get rid of it now because he won't maintain his value. Yet, here we are responding in a thread about how it's now more than Snapcaster. Remember, people on here repeatedly said he would never see play in formats other than standard and said to get rid of him because he wouldn't hold his value when he was at $15, and look where he is now. So remember take the advice you get with a grain of salt.
October 8, 2015 11:42 p.m.
HOLY SHIT, this again??? We've already resolved: Snappy is a far better card, Jace can NEVER retain his price, do not buy a Jace, or else you're very very misinformed and pissing away money.
October 8, 2015 11:44 p.m.
shredsable says... #9
Snappy far exceeds in tempo, power and cc compared to Jace VP. In standard, he is a powerhouse. But in the long run, he won't survive modern. As soon as he gets rolled out, expect the price to drop.
What would retain his price though is that you won't expect a reprint of him anytime soon, a good tiny leader if you are into that thing and commander format.
October 8, 2015 11:57 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #10
I'm tempted to buy a box Jace chasing... Pull one and that's 70% recouped right there.
October 9, 2015 12:23 a.m.
Well they dont call him the 'wallet sculptor' for nothing.. Even in his younger days..
October 9, 2015 12:36 a.m.
See what I mean. The same people who said he would never see play in eternal formats or modern are saying to get rid of him now. Not only has he seen modern play, but he's shown up in small numbers in legacy and vintage. When it comes to this subject, do you really think they're the most reliable source of information ? I mean we're talking about a card that's seeing play across at least 6 different formats and they're still telling you he's worthless. Use your own common sense, does that seem right to you? How many cards do you know of that see that much play, yet drop like a rock in price?
October 9, 2015 3:40 a.m.
JakeHarlow says... #13
I expect him to settle around $35 to $40, if his level of play remains stable. Hype for this card (and price hysteria plus a recent buyout) has contributed to this very large number.
I'm waiting for a drop, because I'd like to play UR mill at some point this Standard season.
October 9, 2015 5:18 a.m.
He was bought out. This is no natural price graph. He's already dropped some.
October 9, 2015 9:24 a.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #15
A. It's not modern season
B. Jace is in Standard
C. The hype train is going full blast
D. Innistrad was a very opened set, compared to Origins which wasn't.
October 9, 2015 10:06 a.m. Edited.
Fleetwood-Mat says... #16
I doubt it's hype, if it was, the price wouldn't be so high on MTGO (which it is).
October 9, 2015 1:49 p.m.
... Note that Bonfire of the Damned was once $50 in standard. It's 100% hype.
October 9, 2015 2:01 p.m.
I remember when Jace, Architect of Thought was $40 lol...
Seriously, this is a hype train. The new Jace isn't terrible by any means, but he's not $70 good. This comes down entirely to him being in a core set and not an expansion.
Snapcaster Mage is easily a $100 card long-term. He's a 4-of in every format he's legal, except EDH where he's a 1-of.
October 10, 2015 6:30 a.m.
Fleetwood-Mat says... #19
Bonfire of the Damned and Jace, Architect of Thought were never $40 on MTGO.
October 10, 2015 1:24 p.m.
@Fleetwood-Mat: Uhhh, sure I guess? That doesn't change the fact they were $40 on paper lol...
October 10, 2015 8:09 p.m.
Fleetwood-Mat says... #21
sylvannos, yes they were (on paper), but neither of them ever hit 10$ on MTGO, whereas Jace, Vryn's Prodigy Flip is already looking down at $40 (on MTGO). Point is, hype-only cards never get high in value in the MTGO market... or if they do, it's never more than $10 they reach. The foils might reach crazy heights for redeemable cards that are hard to find (mythics mainly), but non-foil Jace is over $40, and he's not really hard to find.
October 10, 2015 10:23 p.m.
Dude you're arguments make no sense. I don't know why you love this Jace so much, but very clearly his price is highly inflated. Just watch him come down ;-)
October 10, 2015 10:34 p.m.
xxSkedz24xx says... #23
Fleetwood-Mat using MTGO prices as justification is crap. Power 9 cards don't cost nearly as much on MTGO as they do on paper
October 11, 2015 12:10 a.m.
@Fleetwood-Mat: No, you silly. MODO has a completely different market with completely different amounts of supply and demand. Just look at Sphinx's Revelation, which was almost $50 on MODO, but it was around $27 on paper at the same time. Past in Flames is another one, which went over $25 online, but only $8 on paper.
MtG: Origins wasn't drafted or opened much on paper like it was online, which is why Jace, Vryn's Prodigy Flip is so inflated.
The point is: different metas, different supply, different demand, and different infrastructures.
October 11, 2015 3:45 a.m.
Fleetwood-Mat says... #26
Yeah, both those cards you mentioned were mythics. Being mythic in MTGO will increase the price of the card due to supply/demand, but NOTHING will ever reach $40 online without overwhelming demand. $25 is a common price for hard-to-find mythics, but if the card doesn't have the demand, it's not going to get much higher than that. Jace has gone from $30-$40 within the last 2 weeks alone, and people are still drafting Origins, so lack of supply should not be any concern. Not to mention, everyone who sees my Jace all drool and admire over it when he's played saying stuff like "I wish I had one!" and that I'm "lucky to get one".
October 11, 2015 12:31 p.m.
There's immense demand for Jace right now, that much clear is clear. The question is whether it'll keep up at the same rate in the future.
October 11, 2015 1:41 p.m.
@Fleetwood-Mat: ...and Jace, Vryn's Prodigy Flip is also mythic. I don't know how that counters what I said. You're basing your points off of anecdotal evidence, rather than facts. Cards have been known to jump in price due to buy outs, and paper never gets enough people to draft core sets for cards to be at a reasonable price.
If you want to go ahead and buy more copies of Jace, Vryn's Prodigy Flip, that's fine. But don't expect you're going to see some massive Windfall in profits trying to resell them. I don't think anyone would debate that Jace, Vryn's Prodigy Flip is good and most would concede he was underrated at first. But he sure as hell isn't Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Snapcaster Mage, so his $70 price tag isn't justifiable beyond hype.
October 11, 2015 5:15 p.m.
Fleetwood-Mat says... #29
I never said I was planning to go buy more copies. I have a playset of the card already, and I got it when he was no higher than $30. I know he's hit a very large number in terms of value, and when you compare it to certain other cards, it doesn't make much sense (considering what the card does). But I would have to point you to a previous standard card called Deathrite Shaman which was quickly banned from modern. If DRS was not banned in modern, WotC envisioned every modern game being DRS wars. Even banned from modern, he still performs like a boss in vintage/legacy decks. The point of the card is that it's not worth the Force of Will that you would have to use to stop it, and if you don't stop it, the game goes heavily in favour of DRS immediately for many different reasons. JVP is much like that. He's good value, low mana cost, but he takes a little bit of time to impact the game in a big way. DRS wasn't a mythic rare, but it hit high levels right away when people saw how good he is in game. Jace is like DRS at mythic rarity (kinda); he is just good enough to look like he's not good enough to have to deal with. That's where his value is. It would be understandable to anyone who's never played with him that he doesn't look like he's worth what he's worth, but the good players know why he's good, and they largely drive prices with the decks they use, and right now in standard, modern, legacy and vintage; the top decks are using blue, and they're using Jace.
October 11, 2015 7:18 p.m.
Fleetwood-Mat: However, you can't deny that the price is all because of buyouts and hype. There's no way a card like Jace is this pricey at the beginning of a new standard season. Deathrite Shaman was used in legacy and modern when it was first printed too, but it really never exceeded 20 or 30 bucks.
October 11, 2015 7:35 p.m.
Greendawg81 says... #31
once people actually realize hes not good enough for modern or legacy his price will plummet. The smart ones are dumping already and probably upgrading to something like snacpcaster mage who will likely go up as this tanks
October 11, 2015 9:34 p.m.
Greendawg81: He's easily good enough, but not 70 dollars worth of good.
October 11, 2015 9:47 p.m.
Greendawg81 says... #33
Maybe in some sort of delve strategy he will see some play, even than i doubt it. He doesnt make any current competitive deck better. It seems so far people want to stuff him into current competitive decks, none of which he really fits in.
October 11, 2015 10:01 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #34
If Deathrite Shaman was unbanned how much do you think his price would shoot up? ...would Snapcaster Mages price go down???
October 11, 2015 10:04 p.m.
xxSkedz24xx says... #35
APPLE01DOJ I'm honestly surprised that it hasn't already gone back down a bit closer to where it was before Modern Masters 2015 was released. Yes, the card is insanely good, but he's not seeing play in enough of the top decks in my opinion to justify his price. In fact, only 3 of the top 16 Modern decks at the SCG Open in Indianapolis played Snapcaster Mage. So yes, while the card is very good, I feel like at this time it is a tad overpriced.
October 12, 2015 12:11 a.m.
xxSkedz24xx, you seem to be ignoring the massive amount of legacy play Snapcaster sees. That coupled with some occasional modern and EDH use is mostly where that price comes from. If he was banned in legacy for some reason, then he'd probably be a $30-40 card.
October 12, 2015 8:30 a.m.
Fleetwood-Mat says... #37
Oh, I totally forgot that you guys were the authorities on competitive modern, because you know, vishnarg made a huge splash with his Melira Pod deck, while Greendawg81 keeps coming in with his brainchildren; Tron and Infect.... You know, I TOTALLY forgot you guys came up with those ideas yourselves ;)
October 13, 2015 2:56 p.m.
Greendawg81 says... #38
lol dude no need to get salty because people have a differing opinion on the card than you. You seem to be more concerned with people patting you on the head for buying it cheap, so needy. Congrats little fella.
October 13, 2015 3:51 p.m.
Fleetwood-Mat says... #39
I could care less what people think about my card investments, it's not like I'm selling off my copies of Jace to make a quick profit, I use him in standard, and that's why I got him to begin with. If I sell him off, I won't have him to use in modern or commander.
And let's just analyze the situation here; The whole argument that I've been trying to make is that Jace is fine as a modern card, and his price tag reflects that. The people who have been arguing against me are saying he's not, yet all they are basing their opinions on are netdecks made by people who win tournaments. Yes, I know all about MTGtop8, and I know that's what you guys are looking at... however, as I said before, there are probably a million different home brewed decks out there that might be tier 1 that no one knows about because it's never been taken to a sanctioned tournament. People often seem to overlook how big the card pool for modern really is. It's so easy to forget about cards, overlook cards or just not see the synergy certain cards might have with others. Not to mention, with every set that's released in standard there is always new cards being added to the card pool. There could be hundreds of potentially tier 1 decks out there that never see the light of day. The fact that I'm open-minded enough to see that doesn't make me salty. If my previous message was a little sarcastic sounding, it was to point out that only following what MTGtop8 says is not going to make you a better player or deckbuilder and bullying the free-thinking peeps about their opinions just makes you look immature and closed-minded, ESPECIALLY when my opinions on Jace are based on actual gameplay with the card.
I'm not saying you're bad people for it, all I'm saying is that you shouldn't be surprised if no one listens to you because you lack credibility on the subject.
October 13, 2015 4:57 p.m.
The fact that you're open minded enough to invest in a potential up-and-comer is proof enough of WHY his price is this high. He's new, exciting, and potentially very good. However that doesn't fully address the question. The question as to whether he'll MAINTAIN his price is contingent on T1 play in various formats. Cards shoot up in price when everyone wants to have a little go to see what all the fuss is about. Cards maintain their price when they prove their worth. It's the second bit that's absolutely key.
There's this line between 'decent' and 'really good' that determines the difference between a $10-$20 card that you occasionally see 1-2 copies of in various formats and a $50+ card that's often a 3-4 of in multiple formats. I'm 100% on board with Jace being at least decent and worth some money. I question whether he fits into that latter category of really good and is worth a great deal of money.
The thing is though, various people keep making the mistake of comparing him to snappy or other (mainly) modern staples when the fact of the matter is that not only are we dabbling with him in modern and the eternal formats but he's ALSO an absolute staple in standard. So it's kind of irrelevant whether he's better than snappy or not right now, because a card can be $40+ just for being an auto 4-of in standard decks. Honestly I think Jace won't fall a lot in the immediate future - he's well loved in one format and could be good in another 2. Yes he was probably bought out and that raised the price by like $20. Yes there was a ton of hype raising the price beyond what he's probably worth in a competitive sense. Yes there were all these silly factors that led to this situation. But now we've reached this price, do I think it's going to decrease? Probably not until a good few months have gone by, no.
I really think that for the next few months he'll stay very high because he's well loved in standard and we're experimenting with him in other formats. This makes him a 3-4 of in one format, and an occasional 2-4 of in lots more. If the meta in standard changes? He could plummet a very large amount because it's mainly that format that's driving this. And when he rotates? It's my guess that he's not quite good enough for modern in the long-run. That estimation is useless now because it's not modern play that's primarily driving his price. But in a few months time that could become more relevant.
October 13, 2015 5:25 p.m.
Fleetwood-Mat says... #41
Chief's right that he may not stay at where he is right now forever, I'm not denying that he's got a steep price tag on him right now, and it should come down a bit around when he rotates out of standard. If he IS good in modern, his price would go back up after rotation. I'm in the group who believes that it's still too early to know how good he REALLY is in modern, because the sample size is a little too small right now to make that conclusion. Main thing that I see about him that reflects his value in modern is that he's a low-cmc utility card that is not overwhelmingly risky to play turn 2, and if left alone, he becomes a win con, and mono blue has a severe lack of those in modern right now. Before Jace, blue only really had AEtherling, and any modern player who plays blue knows that Jace is WAY better than AEtherling as a win con for blue.
October 13, 2015 6:17 p.m.
Greendawg81 says... #42
Ive seen jace against home brews as well he still felt underwhelming, I dont need to use a netdeck to see he is underwhelming, but seeing jace give a Wurmcoil Engine a little less hitting power wasn't too impressive. All i ever claimed was that he didn't impress me, i dont see him being played much at all outside of standard and his current price seems a little insane. Never did i claim to be the brainchild behind Tron lol but i guess you feel the need to attack me and make shit up to stroke your ego. I also said people seem to be (from my experince) trying to throw him into the decks which are currently competitive. He doesnt seem to have a home in any of the top tier decks. Maybe in another stragegy but (in my humble opinion), i dont believe so. Your constant need to attack people with a differing opinion than yours shows how salty, childish and narrow minded you are. Going on about the possibile undiscovered decks has nothing to do with your arguement whatsoever, its a distraction from all that saltyness. Whatever, keep attacking people with a differeing opinion if it makes you feel better about yourself.
Unsubbed.
October 13, 2015 6:26 p.m.
Fleetwood-Mat says... #43
I'm not attacking you dude. I'm not attacking anyone. I'm just pointing out facts. You're the one calling me salty just because I made a sarcastic comment to illustrate the facts. I KNOW you didn't come up with Tron, and that's why I used that as the analogy. If your opinion is that Jace is not good in modern, that's entirely fine. You're not a pro deck builder, so I don't agree with your opinion, I never said you weren't entitled to your opinion, but you don't have to resort to name-calling when I disagree. My points are made out of factual information. If you want to argue with the facts, sure! I'll argue on the side of facts all day long! That's not being salty, it's rational thinking.
October 13, 2015 8:12 p.m.
sophontteks says... #44
I made a trade with my roommate. I gave him 3 advent of the wurm, 4 wayfaring temples, 1 call of the conclave, and 1 lingering souls for his JaveVP card.Will I get my money back, or am I out 5 bucks?
October 13, 2015 10:03 p.m.
JakeHarlow says... #45
Good Lord. The salt in this thread...
He's a played card, folks. In more than one format. He's got hype, too! So he costs a bit of dough. Might go down later, but who knows? Everything that can be said on the matter is nothing more than speculation. Can we please be civil, for Pete's sake?
October 13, 2015 11:05 p.m.
Fleetwood-Mat says... #46
sophontteks; If you're planning on playing with the card, it doesn't really matter if you gained or lost on the trade financially. If you weren't planning on using the cards you traded away, you got what you want, and he got what he wanted, therefore it's a good trade for both sides. If your intention was to invest in a card to sit on (and not play with), you probably have a little bit of time before he goes down (if he does at all), so if you see him beginning to go down, you could trade him for other cards with a more stable value. In fact, many of the cards in Modern Masters 2015 are what you might consider looking at. Bitterblossom is the lowest it's been in a long time, and so is Vendilion Clique, Dark Confidant, Cryptic Command and Wilt-Leaf Liege... to name a few. I see those as pretty good investments because they have a history of being high-priced cards, and would more likely go up than further down.
October 13, 2015 11:45 p.m.
Why are we still talking about this? How is there anything left to be said for Christ's sake? Unsubbed
October 13, 2015 11:48 p.m.
sophontteks says... #49
i hear ya fleetwood-mat, i was upgrading my own decks and didnt want to leave him in the dust, so i bought those cards as a gift. giving him 5/5 wurm tokens and wayfaring temples in a selesnya token deck was a pretty big upgrade. he pointed out that he has a couple cool cards he cant use. one was jaceVP. when i first saw him i was meh. I since realized hes actually pretty dang strong. Im pretty sure he would be extremely upset if i up and sold it. fortunately he is a great fit in my deck.I do have to consider selling it, and giving him a fair amount of the trade if the card shows promise that itll drop later. Im not sure if it will though. As a 2 mana drop, the second it drops people will likely aim to get several copies of him. Many blue decks like cycling, and casting from graveyard is all the better. all for 2 mana.
he already won me a game. i was short a card i needed to win, i cycled with quicken, still short, so i tapped jace. bam, artful dodge. Nivix cyclops breaks through for 20 damage (psychotic strike, artful dodge, quicken). game over
Ohthenoises says... #2
No but new jace is seeing play in modern AND standard where snappy is only seeing play in modern.
Origins wasn't opened as much as INN so that's also a factor.
More demand + less supply = more cost.
October 8, 2015 10:29 p.m.