Increasing prices for Modern/EDH?
Economics forum
Posted on Dec. 18, 2015, 3:01 p.m. by Twinrehz
I haven't been paying close attention to MtG for the last few years, but my interest for it reawakened recently, and since then I've looked around at pricing and stuff.
First off, I want to say I don't buy cards to speculate. I buy cards because I want to use them in play. Therefore, it's annoying to see that between mid-2013 and now, prices on a whole bunch of cards that I recognize as being strong in EDH have increased significantly, sometimes doubling or even tripling in price.
Most notably, Sensei's Divining Top, is the example I can think of right now, but there's a whole lot of cards that have been steadily increasing, cards that I'm somewhat interested in, because they're very useful in EDH.
Is this a trend of rising interest in MtG? Is this a growing bubble that will end up bursting? Or is the increase going to continue until the number of people who can actually afford this are growing fewer in numbers?
I feel a kind of resentment against those speculating hard in cards, especially towards those buying all available cards to drive the prices up. I recently saw a video of a youtuber named MTG Lion, where he claimed StarCityGames have a tendency of buying all available copies of cards, just to bring prices up and score a profit for themselves, when they're the only ones around with the hypothetical card in stock.
Being a totally casual player myself, I have little interest in competitive play (honestly I'm not good enough of a player for that), and having to shell out huge sums because someone wants to turn a pretty profit, it sparks a plan on starting a proxy-business (with cards CLEARLY labeled as such), to provide casual players with an alternative source for the more expensive cards, if the idea is that the cards are not for players, they're for the highest bidder.
I realise I come off as quite bitter, but it makes it difficult to invest in the game when the investment requires more than I feel it's worth, especially when I'm not doing it for my own profit, but because I want to play the game, and actually use some of the more powerful cards. I know there's a certain balance between supply and demand, but cards ranging above 30-40 dollars seem insane to me. Some of my friends are reluctant to spend more than 5 dollars on a single card too.
For instance- I have 6 EDH decks. Only 1 has a top in it. I need 5x more tops... (since thats the card you chose to use)
December 18, 2015 3:08 p.m.
Prices of top decks in modern have been steadily increasing year on year.
December 18, 2015 3:21 p.m.
TheFoilAjani says... #5
I think something to realize is that Magic is a competitive game. The price of cards isn't rising uncontrollably. The prices rise to a state that reflects how the game is played. If the secondary market wasn't how it is, then WotC would probably go out of business. People buy packs of cards in order to subvert those prices, among other things (Draft, Sealed, etc.). Without that, WotC would lose money and not be able to continue making Magic. Prices only rise because more people are playing. That is very important when you consider Supply/Demand. I am not a professional economist, but I have been looking at prices and such, and prices don't go up arbitrarily. Prices go up because the card is being used in a format. Card prices aren't a problem that will hurt the game. Card prices are important to keeping the game alive. And prices haven't gone up significantly due to new players.
On the topic of MTGLion, I don't consider them a credible source of info. Their videos tend to cry wolf, and harp on non-exsistant problems.
I think that you are a little too concerned with the topic, and I would call you a little "bitter". The prices suck for a few, but they benefit everyone as a whole. Also, the price of Sensei's Divining Top is a good barrier. No one wants a 4-6 player game of EDH where everyone has a Top. That would be awful.
December 18, 2015 3:22 p.m.
Actually prices of singles are almost always cheaper than the cost of buying boosters and hoping to open the card you want.
December 18, 2015 3:23 p.m.
I'm not entirely sure about the exact cause, but it seems that Something about theros caused a huge spike in the number of players. I guess they just really went all out with the marketing for that god awful set? Right around 2014 the number of players essentially doubled,tripled,etc and if you check price history data around that time you'll see that it also matches this. Almost all cards across the board have a sharp spike in their price around then and I can only assume that it's just that this excessively large group of new players were scrambling to get their hands on all the singles they wanted to play in various formats. It's disappointing really. Many cards which were maybe $3-5 are now upwards of $20-30 and so on. I'm sad that I took a break from magic for a few years when I look at all the EDH stuff I'm interested in and see that everything drastically rose in price in 2014.
December 18, 2015 3:25 p.m.
There will come a time when Wizards messes up and a crap ton of players leave (like Kamigawa). If SOI isnt just amazing I think people will be leaving the game, which will cause the secondary market to flood and drive prices to the floor (and hopefully crash SCG's buying power). Also MTGLion is just some kid from Dallas right? He isnt great speculation wise (specked coco at 50c).
December 18, 2015 3:37 p.m.
TheFoilAjani says... #9
ChiefBell But many players don't know that. I totally agree, I haven't bought packs since BFZ released (getting about my money's worth in Gideons), and that was breaking my several set long silence of pack ripping. But a strong amount of players don't know that.
Lokotor I'm curious why you think Theros sucked. It had great story, great cards, and brought in more players, which is objectively good for the game. I don't know what possible definition of "god awful" you have that makes sense in the situation.
December 18, 2015 3:45 p.m.
McSleuthburger says... #10
PUT ON YOUR TIN-FOIL HAT BOYS!
but seriously Magic is growing which means more people will compete for the same number of cards which will raise prices
December 18, 2015 3:52 p.m.
Prices of decks have been steadily increasing across all formats with the exception of Standard that goes through waves. Current Standard happens to be damn expensive. Last time average deck prices where this high was Innistrad + Ravnica block.
Even so, reprints drive down costs dramatically. Onslaught Polluted Delta was $85 before Khans spoilers came out. It's currently $40 while the KTK printing is $22. Similar things happened with Thoughtseize, Chord of Calling, most notable cards in MM2, etc.
December 18, 2015 3:59 p.m.
Serendipitous_Hummingbird says... #12
JuicyPVP Kamigawa wasn't what drove people away. Mirrodin was. More specifically, Darksteel. Ravager Clamp Affinity drove people away from the game in larger numbers than Caw Blade, Alara Jund, even Tolarian Academy.
December 18, 2015 4:06 p.m.
Pheardemons says... #13
If Shadows over Innistrad sucks I don't know if I'll want to stay. Innistrad was the first set I came into and is still my favorite. The story stayed consistent and strong, cards in that block affected every format, and nothing was completely and utterly broken (Probably with an exception of Griselbrand). The fact that they are returning this quickly after zendikar hopefully means something sweet with Eldrazi (Read somewhere that eldrazi's and innistrad are linked by some kind of plane. Would be sweet to see a crossover).
To the actual topic of this article. Supply and demand is the easiest way to say it. EDH has become so popular that good commanders and staple cards, like Sensei's Divining Top, will go up in price when 100,000, or one million people are buying them all at one time. Not to mention when a card makes an appearance in a format (example Omniscience in legacy) and is actually good and competitive, people just simply copy the deck because they like the theme. Back to the fact that a lot of people buy the card at the same time. Why sell a card for 5 dollars when the same amount of people will buy it at 30 (more on the competitive side anyways). The card will go down if other decks become better, or if there is significant hate that can shut the deck down (Omniscience has gone down below 20 after the spike to 35). Other cards like Liliana of the Veil; which is a staple in modern, not completely broken, and still powerful after being released years ago; will just steadily climb because people are still willing to pay the money for a card when they believe it won't lose it's value.
December 18, 2015 4:08 p.m.
Serendipitous_Hummingbird says... #14
This is the list that took first at GP Brussels 2004.
18 Lands
4x Glimmervoid
18 Creatures
2x Atog
4x Frogmite
14 Instants/Sorceries
4x Thoughtcast
10 Other Spells
4x Chrome Mox
4x Skullclamp
2x Welding Jar
December 18, 2015 4:18 p.m.
I wouldn't assume that the prices go up uncontrollably, I assumed it was related to format popularity and people wanting to play it. Maybe I got into EDH early compared to when the format took off, but as with my Divining Top-example, it has doubled in price since the last time I got one. That is a good 4-5 years ago, before sol ring ran into massive reprint, and I understand expecting things to not change over that period of time is ridiculous.
However, TheFoilAjani's example of not wanting to see that many Top's just because its price is high is hilarious. If people want to play it, they're going to get it. 30 dollars isn't incredibly intimidating (and if it is, there's always non-NM copies to be bought for less), but specifically, Top should be included if the deck can actually utilize one, not because it should be an integral part of all EDH decks.
The main reason I'm wondering about this is that if you look on the history of prices on a range of EDH-valuable cards, there's a jump either in 2013 or 2014. It's not a rapid increase in price, it's an actual jump, where over a minimal period of time, the price doubles or even triples.
If you look at , it shows a fairly steady increase, nothing TOO out of the ordinary, a few jumps here and there, but nothing massive. Then consider . It runs stable for a period, then makes quite a leap, goes down again, and then makes a solid jump. The price goes up over 30 dollars in a week.
I won't claim to know what happened there, other than that an already expensive card becomes even more expensive. Weeding out players by increasing the price seems ridiculous, and it becomes a "highest bidder"-scenario, where the one holding the most money gets to play the best cards. This doesn't make sense to me.
The same goes for the different iterations of Jace. Do anyone actually buy the cards, when some of them cost as much as $100? Who, outside of pro plays, will pay that much for a single card? A playset, sure, that's 4 cards after all, but not a single card.
If it wasn't clear already, the point I'm trying to make is that some cards are too expensive to make sense of the price. I understand the vintage ones, they're old, never been reprinted, hard to come by, power 9 and all that jazz; don't care about those. For what I consider mostly a hobby for my part, some prices are off the charts. It affects very few cards, and if you buy a lot of cards it probably evens out somewhat, but it seems unnatural that demand would drive prices up this much.
(I don't know if my links work, they wouldn't show up in my preview).
December 18, 2015 4:33 p.m.
Yeah, the link parsing doesn't work for shit, so here's the two I tried to put in, in order:
http://www.mtgprice.com/sets/Champions_of_Kamigawa/Sensei's_Divining_Top
and
http://www.mtgprice.com/sets/New_Phyrexia/Karn_Liberated
December 18, 2015 4:34 p.m.
Ah yes I forgot mirodin block. Just like caw blade standard. Lol.
December 18, 2015 6:04 p.m.
TheFoilAjani says... #19
Twinrehz You would be suprised how many players that play top can actually use it well. I've played EDH games where people take 5-10 minutes each for their Tops, every time they do that. Top is good in basically every EDH deck. I cannot name a deck that it is bad in. You can't guarantee that people who buy it know how to use it. And sure, peeps can buy non-nm versions, but that shows there is no price problem if that can be made as a statement.
December 18, 2015 6:18 p.m.
mathimus55 says... #20
A couple notes:
MTGLion is about as reliable as a used car salesman. They're kind of a running joke among people that you should be listening to. Like was said before, they like to be the whistle caller on imaginary problems or just play darts with who they're going to blame for problem X, Y or Z.
Also, selling proxies is actually not wise at all. Since every card is intellectual property of Wizards you selling fake versions(even if they're labeled as such) can get you in tons of trouble. Just look at eBay and see how long a "proxy" seller lasts before they're flagged for selling counterfeits.
Someone I would check out the model of is TheProxyGuy. Check him out on Twitter, he's a fantastic resource for the game in general and does GORGEOUS foils and proxies(he did a custom proxy cube for TSG from Heavy Meta and it's incredible work) but he doesn't sell any of his proxies because of the huge amount of anger that would come from Wizards' legal team. I traded him cards for his "commission" to make a few full art commanders for me which also are incredible.
Finally, speculators/finance people aren't the bogeymen that people(like MTGLion or the mana source) like to make them out to be. Players ultimately determine the price of everything and prove it with their wallets. If people are ok with paying X amount of dollars for a card then people will charge them up to that. If players don't think a card is worth more they won't buy them and people will lower their price until players figure it's worth it again. Supply and demand and all that.
December 18, 2015 7:30 p.m.
TheFoilAjani I just personally thought the mechanics were poorly done and many other people also seem to not like the set either, despite the fact that it was the highest selling set in a while. Personally I don't care much about the lore/story side as it's not really impactful on the gameplay itself, which is my only concern when evaluating a set.
December 18, 2015 8:24 p.m.
Nice to see that it's mostly just a case of crying wolf then, even though some of the prices are going to be a headache, but that's personal opinion (and problem).
December 19, 2015 2:33 p.m.
But card prices are rising over time. There was an article written about this comparing modern decks now to the same decks a few years ago. Some of them had doubled in price.
December 19, 2015 2:47 p.m.
mathimus55 says... #24
Chief, if you're talking about the article MTGGoldfish did they pointed to the main reason of that growth is that the demand for modern staples has skyrocketed simply because of the rapidly growing player base. Even sets from 5 or less years ago don't have a comporable print run compare to Khans block or BFZ. There are simply way more players fightin over the same amount of copies that haven't increased in supply like Innistrad or Scars block cards. They print cards to fuel standard and limited, anything after that is gravy for Wizards. I'd be willing to bet if Kolaghan's Command were printed in Innistrad it would be a >$20 card already just because of supply reasons only
December 19, 2015 2:58 p.m.
Pheardemons says... #25
Serendipitous_Hummingbird Snapcaster Mage isn't broken. It requires the mana cost of whatever is in the graveyard plus two. While that doesn't sound like much Remand would be completely unplayable in modern if it was 4 mana. Snapcaster Mage did seriously help control decks, but not many other decks benefited from him. If any at all.
December 22, 2015 8:42 p.m.
Serendipitous_Hummingbird says... #26
While in standard, snappy wrecked so much havoc WotC almost banned him. Rather than banning, they chose to print cards like Cavern of Souls and Deathrite Shaman, stupidly powerful cards, just to try to balance him.
Yes, Remand at 
would be unplayable. But snappy isn't just a 4cmc remand. He's whatever you need him to be. He's a 
Lightning Bolt. He's a Electrolyze. He's a 
Path to Exile. He's copies 5-8 of all your best spells, all at once.
December 22, 2015 9:09 p.m.
Pheardemons says... #27
I wasn't playing standard (competitively at least) to know what he was doing, but based on the fact of how powerful he is it doesn't surprise me.
Remand was just an example, and your completely right. My argument is just that those are combos are mostly (90% or 95%) in control decks. I'm sure there are other decks that use him, but control is where he really shines. Great thing about magic is that this is simply matter of perspective. He's incredibly powerful, I just don't think he's broken.
December 22, 2015 9:16 p.m.
Serendipitous_Hummingbird says... #28
Perhaps we're operating under different definitions of "broken". For me, "broken" is any card that exhibits massive design failures that lead to a card being far more powerful than intended. A "broken" card is one that is good enough that the question is not "should I play it", but rather "If it is in my colors, do I have a reason not to play it?".
A "broken" card, at least by my definition, doesn't necessarily need to be banned. Cards like Tarmogoyf, Snapcaster Mage, and Lightning Bolt are "broken" but not ban worthy.
December 22, 2015 9:23 p.m.
what makes a broken card broken isnt "I already play this color, I should put it as a 4-of"
sure, if you play burn your gonna 4-of bolts, handsdown.
sure, if you play blue your gonna 4-of snappies, handsdown.
that doesnt make them broken.
goyf is the only card that makes people go "I play XXX, I'll grab some more fetches/duals and make it XXXg just to put goyf there".
when people adds a color to any and all decks they run simply because of a card, thats when you know your looking at a BROKEN card.
December 23, 2015 6:56 a.m.
Gorgosaurusrex says... #30
arcdevil: "If you play burn *you're gonna 4-of bolts"
MTG is definitely more expensive then it was years ago. I wish I had bought up copies of Mana Crypt and Sensei's Divining Top for my EDH decks when they were 1/3 the price.
You should not see MTG as an investment unless you are a pro player and are going to make money from your cards. Cards (especially ones not on the reserved list) have no real tangible value and could lose whatever perceived value they have at any time.
December 23, 2015 11:50 a.m. Edited.
mathimus55 - Guarantee Kolaghans will be $20+ in a few years. 100% guarantee.
It doesn't matter what the source of these increases are, they still exist.
December 23, 2015 11:57 a.m.
mathimus55 says... #32
I agree. My point was is that it already would be there with the lower supply that I mentioned.
December 23, 2015 12:03 p.m.
No, not necessarily the others. It's just that Kolaghan's Command is a stupid card and super modern playable.
December 23, 2015 3:10 p.m.
Didgeridooda says... #35
I personally think that EDH is a driving force in the new Mtg boom. The format has grown to a point that I never expected. It has also reinvigorated an old generation of players.
December 24, 2015 6:55 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #36
The worldwide player base of MTG has been growing at a relatively steady rate of 35% each year since Innistrad.
The source for this information ... is bleh. But I trust the author, even if he didn't post any of his research notes for the very short article.
December 27, 2015 6:17 a.m.
Didgeridooda says... #37
I was talking more of a boom of prices. EDH is bring older players back, older players have more money to spend on cards, prices go up.
No research, just my own theory.
Edit, not just EDH prices. When people come back they get interested in other formats too.
December 27, 2015 12:26 p.m. Edited.
Lastdaysgunslinger says... #38
I have been playing this game since 94 and ive seen the prices go from a tad pricey to the completely insane in all formats. I dont know if it will ever cave in on itself or not but the one thing i always think of is richard garfields original remark that magic will not be a rich mans game and winning will not require rich kid syndrome. Yet now it does.
January 2, 2016 5:39 a.m.
Magic was designed purely as a past-time for conventions and the like, I don't think Garfield imagined it would be this big.
For me it's too grand to spend a great deal of money on a single card, the best example being Expedition fetch lands that not only fetches lands, but also a premium around 200 dollars. Had I been going for pro play, I'd might be inclined to pay for them, but as it stands, the price is too grand to possibly justify such a purchase (I'm aware that the same lands exist in a non-expedition version as well, but even they are somewhat expensive, especially the ones from the original Zendikar set).
Nor is the price likely to go down either because of their extreme rarity. They should occur more often than foil mythic rares, since they don't actually replace cards in a pack, but the price is not likely to budge under 150 dollars, I imagine.
From a purely economic view, it's WotC's license to print money, I imagine the sale on boosters is higher than it's ever been, because of the funny way people work when it comes to valuable rare things that are technically available cheap (lottery statistics are a good example of how this works).
Personally, I'd like to see a reprint set specially for the casual players, with some of the rarer cards made more available, but even if I suggest that those cards needn't be legal in any format (save casual and EDH), I don't see it as likely to ever happen. I suppose casual is what the second hand-market thrives on.
January 3, 2016 9:23 a.m.
Lastdaysgunslinger says... #40
In a sense that last part you mentioned is really no different than using proxies you make or buy yourself.
JuicyPVP says... #2
SCG does buy out certain cards. But that doesn't mean you can't make money, or at least cash out at an even return, if you put effort into it. EDH does drive prices up, especially of lands and artifacts, because a lot of decks use them regardless the color.
December 18, 2015 3:07 p.m.