Fatal Push

Economics forum

Posted on Jan. 6, 2017, 10 a.m. by HSF117

Right now you can pre-order Fatal Push for $4-$5 depending on where you go which is ridiculous as it is a standard uncommon. People say that it will be black's Lightning Bolt or Path to Exile and... well the jury is still out on that considering we haven't even gotten to see the card played yet. It won't stay at $5 for long after Aether Revolt's release because people are going to be buying packs for the Masterpieces. So we should see a drop in price during the first week of release. Now, how well do you think Fatal Push will perform in standard and other formats and also, depending on it's performance, how high does its price go? I'll give my opinion first. I think Fatal Push settles at around $6-7 after Aether Revolt rotates out because it is better than Lightning Bolt as it can destroy many more creatures but not as unconditional as Path to Exile.

Atony1400 says... #2

I think it should slowly decline from $5 for awhile, but that will likely change dependant on its performance at the Pro Tour.

January 6, 2017 10:09 a.m.

Boza says... #3

$1.5 at most. Economics 101 of supply and demand: $5 preorder price is the price with all the demand and none of the supply. The more we go forward, the less it will cost.

January 6, 2017 10:17 a.m.

Kiortio says... #4

With the amount of Aether Revolt that will be opened because of the Master Piece series, you can expect it to drop to the $2-3 area. Also, there is no way this card will be bellow $1 ever.

January 6, 2017 10:21 a.m.

EpicFreddi says... #5

Foils in europe go for 22 Euro. That's kinda bonkers.

January 6, 2017 10:35 a.m.

clayperce says... #6

My plan: Buy about 1 week after release for $4. I expect that once it sees camera time as a 4-of at Pro Tour, it'll shoot up to $8. And if it ends up shaking up Modern as much as everyone seems to think, it will settle somewhere between $10-12.

Some baseline examples (though keep in mind the print runs of many of these were very small):

January 6, 2017 10:36 a.m.

TheHelvault says... #7

My plan: wait until it goes down to roughly $1, as it will once lots of Aether Revolt boxes are opened. Thousands of boxes of Magic 2010 were opened, meaning almost 4 times as many lightning bolts, but they're still at $2. Fatal Push will go down then back up.

Fatal Push can kill almost any creature in modern. It will kill any creature in Naya Zoo, any creature in Kiln Fiend. It'll kill Goyfs and Hierarchs. Magic has been needing a solid one-mana black removal spell for it's entire history, and has come lose with Tragic Slip, Vendetta, Deathmark. Now Magic has that solid one-mana removal spell it's been needing, and It really will be Black's Bolt or Path. I plan to pre-order a playset for roughly $4 or $5, then watch it soar

January 6, 2017 11:34 a.m.

saj0219 says... #8

It's obviously a different card, but I think Aether Hub can be illustrative here. As a wildly used uncommon, Aether Hub currently sits at ~$2.50, which I imagine is roughly where Fatal Push might settle when all the hype dies down while it's still in standard. So many packs are opened now that it's hard for uncommons to reach higher while in print. I guess it might climb years down the road, but...

January 6, 2017 11:54 a.m.

clayperce says... #9

That's a good point on Aether Hub. The difference though is Hub is only a thing in Standard ... in Modern, it's just a one-of in a few Lantern Control decks.

Of course, Push hasn't made an impact in Modern yet either, so who knows ... :-D

January 6, 2017 12:03 p.m.

Hjaltrohir says... #10

It'll be a long time before it goes above $5, I reckon it will drop like a stone to $1-2 until pro tour, and then maybe up to aether hub's price. Aether revolt will be opened a lot.

January 6, 2017 12:04 p.m.

JohnnyBaggins says... #11

Fatal Push is amazing in Modern and kills essentially anything in Legacy. I would be fairly surprised should the card not reach Path to Exile price levels within a year.

January 6, 2017 12:06 p.m.

EmblemMan says... #12

I expect it to be 3-5 most of its lifetime as a magic card the card is most certainly very powerful but its not an automatic 4 of in evrry format but it will change formats as far as modern and maybe standard go.

January 6, 2017 12:34 p.m.

saj0219 says... #13

clayperce I don't know how much modern will drive the price of an uncommon while it is being printed in standard. I think long term Fatal Push looks very different than Aether Hub (assuming push makes it in modern), but my gut tells me that push will be so accessible while it's being printed that the extra demand from modern won't move its price floor much at all, though it may take it a little longer to drop.

JohnnyBaggins no way will it be at Path to Exile price within a year. Uncommons in standard just dont climb that high anymore due to how much supply there is. Consider that right now, most rares in standard aren't even at $10 (including some of the most powerful and played ones).

January 6, 2017 1:29 p.m.

I think it will stay at a solid $4-5 while in standard, and that price will largely be driven by eternal demand. While there are ways to trigger it in standard, those ways aren't as consistent or easy as just saccing a fetchland in the older formats. There is a chance that it won't see as much standard play as expected, but I doubt it. Buying in at $4 would be ok in my book, as Aether Hub and Harnessed Lightning showed that for a short while standard uncommons could be worth something.

January 7, 2017 1:48 a.m.

arcdevil says... #15

anyone that runs black will 4x this card, perhaps not always in maindeck but definetly split with sb. and people who currently dont run black will start wanting to run it just for this card.

it'll shake up modern completly and even have a noticiable impact in legacy

no matter how much AER is opened it wont be nearly enough, because the DEMAND for this card will be off the charts.

it'll easily stay above $5 for years

January 12, 2017 10 a.m.

Now that my hype goggles have somewhat cleared, I may change my tune. Dismember is the removal of choice across all colors of decks and hits almost everything in modern (even most eldrazi). It has only been reprinted in supplemental products (Modern Event Deck and Modern Masters 2015), so I'm not sure how those are effecting its price. In a vacuum, Dismember is the more universal card, and it has settled around $2. I'm thinking that the more-restrictive Fatal Push will fall close to that price in the long run, as mono-black decks can't trigger it as easily and you need to jump through more hoops to kill larger threats (even if the hoop is just cracking a fetch in a multicolored deck). It for sure will replace any Disfigures being run in lists as well as some Dismembers, but I'm starting to think it won't be as universal as previously claimed. It's also a possibility that certain decks in the format will compensate for it down the road (like seeing an uptick in eldrazi decks). I'll still get a set if I can get them for under $4, but I wouldn't invest in them or anything.

January 12, 2017 2:14 p.m.

saj0219 says... #17

I still think that it'll settle (temporarily) in the $2-3 range while being printed. With an unlimited printing, I just don't see an uncommon being able to hold much higher than $3 while it is still in print.

I also think GeminiSpartanX has a pretty strong point. If I'm already in Black in modern, maybe I reach for Fatal Push over Dismember, but when I run through modern decks that don't run black that I'm familiar with, I have a hard time finding one that wants to splash another color for Fatal Push... If I'm looking for removal and I'm not running Black, I'd rather pay 4 life (Dismember) than contort my mana base for a card I have to turn on (Fatal Push).

I think it's a great card, but I think it is magical thinking to believe it will never drop below $5. There will virtually unlimited supply and, while demand will be high, it won't be that high.

January 12, 2017 2:32 p.m.

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