Can Jace hold his value?
Economics forum
Posted on Oct. 1, 2015, 12:42 a.m. by Serendipitous_Hummingbird
Really, can jace hold on to that 50 dollar price tag? Or will he drop? What about post-rotation (I know, it's early to start talking about origins rotating).
Mainly I need to pick up a couple copies but no way in hell am I paying $100 for them. If that means waiting 18 months it means waiting 18 months.
slovakattack says... #3
I would not pay for him now if you need him for non-rotating formats. He's a standard all-star, but does not see enough play in eternal formats to warrant even half the price tag.
October 1, 2015 1:05 a.m.
Grantley91 says... #4
I got rid of him for some manlands because I was completely confident that he would be less than $30 by rotation so if you need more than one copy I sure as heck would wait.
October 1, 2015 1:42 a.m.
Jace is being tested in older formats, since he's often just Snapcaster Mage 5-7. I could see him dropping below $20, but I would be surprised if he keeps seeing play in Modern and Legacy.
I even saw Rich Shay testing him in Vintage!
October 1, 2015 1:48 a.m.
It won't hold it's value, it'll keep going up. BC ya, thats what it keeps doing. It was like $40 two weeks ago, now it's $50. You could of bought 5 two weeks ago for what you'll pay for 4 this week.
Don't forget its from the least opened set of the year too, and isn't going to be opened anymore either with BFZ out now.
October 1, 2015 2:01 a.m.
there will definitely be a point in the future where he'll be much cheaper than what he is now, be it around his standard rotation or if this version gets a duel deck printing like many planeswalkers.
Even if eternal formats find him way overpowered this will hold true, in fact if they find out how to completely break him while he's still in printing he'll be much, much cheaper than lets say Snapcaster Mage who never really moved too far from $20 during it's entire time innistrad was printed so eternal format players didn't help too much in overfilling supply, there was quite a few points that return to ravnica's pack value way beatout innistrad. This also explains one good reason why shocklands are so cheap, people just bought a crapton of rtr.
October 1, 2015 2:03 a.m.
I really just think it'll hold the value. Take a really good look at the card. It's the cheapest mana-costed "good" planeswalker out there, it doesn't feed the type planeswalker to tarmogoyf while in the graveyard, it can produce ridiculous card advantage over time, feed delve, and slow your opponents damage. He screams control, and there's no way his play in eternal formats is still in the opening hype phase. He sees play in eternal formats because he deserves the slot. Don't compare him to snapcaster mage. These are two different cards with two different functions, situations, advantages, and disadvantages.
October 1, 2015 2:37 a.m.
Not a chance he can hold some value maybe 20 mor eliekly 10-15 but there is absolutely no way unless he is close to ban worthy for some reason that he will keep 50 dollars post rotation
October 1, 2015 2:58 a.m.
JakeHarlow says... #10
Ugh, I hope he will go down. I haven't pulled any at all and I'd really like to have a playset!!
October 1, 2015 2:59 a.m.
I'd think he has to go down at some point... With that said, it seems like everyone keeps being wrong about this card. First he was one of the worst flip walkers (at one point he even hit $10 preorder); then there was no way he'd stay $30 because it was all release hype and he'd drop in just a few weeks; then there was no way he'd go above $40 and was probably going to drop soon; and now he's chilling out at $50. I still think it'll go down eventually but I'm not confident in anything about his price
October 1, 2015 6:04 a.m.
JakeHarlow says... #12
Yeah, dude. I've been 100% wrong at every turn about this card. Who knows what will happen...
Maybe I'm just a bad player and can't tell a good card when I see one. Yeah, it's probably that.
October 1, 2015 6:23 a.m.
I don't think he'll hold at all. Personally I don't think he's good at all outside Standard. Anybody remember when Chandra, Pyromaster was being tested in Modern and spiked hard? Yea, same thing.
October 1, 2015 7:47 a.m.
My son has opened up 2 Jaces so far and we can't figure out what to do with them. He wants to hold onto them because, who doesn't want two binder slots to fill up $100 worth of card? I say now is the time for him to trade them. He can at least get around $60 trade value at some places or even the full $100 from player to player to trades.I don't see This Jace keeping up the $50 mark. I mean...some people really look at him at 2cmc and then equate that to Snapcaster Mage, but it just isn't as -Logicianpointed out above. Yea, it's cool to have the self protection, but it's against 1 creature at a time in very creature oriented environments. And his emblem seems to come down at a time when you either already won or already lost outside of Standard. I also have never played against this Jace and seen it make an impact. For eternal id say stick to Snap and call it a day because this isn't good. The "doesn't feed Tarmogoyf" argument seems like a very subtractive way of building a deck. By that logic, if I read it correctly, I should abstain from including Lightning Bolt in my RUG list for modern bc it does feed Tarmogoyf. I feel like the hype and eternal testing spiked him and now everyone is looking for ways to justify the spike as legit. I think a big part of it is that he is technically a very playable 2cmc PW.
Like everyone else, I can be wrong and maybe he will be $60 next week.
October 1, 2015 8:26 a.m.
Something to keep in mind. All of these people who are telling you that he's guaranteed to drop soon are the same people who said sell him immediately after he was released because he would never hold his hype value. Not only did he hold his hype value, he doubled in price and has sat there ever since. So take what they say with a grain of salt, a lot of people lost out by taking their advise on this very card already.
October 1, 2015 9:44 a.m.
Yeah and I don't understand it. I know there's no way they test as extensively as the pros so for all these amatures to think they can determine a cards playability based on seeing it spoiled is pretty rediculous. You'd think they would get tired of constantly being wrong and making it publicly known by posting it online, not nope they just keep on going. As long as they're right 1 out of 100 times they feel justified for some reason lol.
October 1, 2015 11:30 a.m.
AndWelcomeToTheJam says... #18
One more thing to consider; if Jace sees play in Modern or Legacy he's only likely to be used to flashback a spell (similar to how Jace, Architect of Thought was mainly used for his pseudo-Steam Augury ability). In Standard however, he sees play in some other lists, like Sphinx's Tutelage decks. Whether these decks are good or not, I have yet to say; I've never played against one. But there are a lot of decks that throw in Jace just because he's so good in the slower Standard format; I've seen him both in Abzan and Death and Taxes, and also in a Bant list where the blue in Bant was Jace and only Jace. All of his abilities are more or less usable in Standard, not so much in Modern. Mill isn't a thing there, and giving a single creature -2/-0 is lackluster when decks like Twin Exarch are at the forefront. I would personally not be surprised to see a noticeable drop in price post-Origins, but if his Modern and/or Legacy testing hold up, then he might still be sizeable.
October 1, 2015 11:38 a.m.
It is not really about being justified. And it is more the case of being wrong 1 in 100 times. If I say "no more than 1 card from this set will make an impact on Modern" I will be right on average.
Also, selling into hype is the best way to make a profit. Holding onto assets like they are toxic is what gets you into trouble (financial jokes FTW).
If you preordered Jace at 10 bucks and sold him off at 30, you made 20 bucks regardless of whether he raises more. If you waited 2 weeks and he cooled off and turned out he was a flash in the pan you would still have a 10 dollar Jace. That is how casinos profit, you have to be smarter than that.
October 1, 2015 11:42 a.m.
AndWelcomeToTheJam says... #20
Adding on to Boza's comment, look at BFZ. BFZ is hype as all hell. But breaking it down and looking at each card individually, what cards are immediately worthy of being played in older formats? Currently, I only see one, and that's Crumble to Dust, just because it's strictly better than Sowing Salt, a decently common sideboard card in red Modern decks. Is Jace strictly better than Snapcaster Mage? No, of course not. But do blue Modern and Legacy decks play Snapcaster Mage before any other creature? Definitely.
October 1, 2015 12:13 p.m.
capriom85 The small point that I made regarding Jace not being a planeswalker in the graveyard which means that he doesn't add that elusive card type to the list doesn't mean you shouldn't play lightning bolt. My point was slim, but it's still there.
Tarmogofy is obviously fed primarily and inevitably by:
- Land
- Creature
- Instant
- Sorcery
Depending on the list, you can sometimes throw artifact and enchantment into that list, or sometimes your opponent does for you. The final two, planeswalker and tribal, are perhaps the two most elusive. To say that you can run a planeswalker that wouldn't add a planeswalker to the graveyard when it dies, and remains being a creature, has more advantages than just not over-developing your opponent's tarmogofy. It also means that he can be targeted by Disentomb effects, which is included on the ever-popular Kolaghan's Command. He's the only Jace with that attribute. He can be hit by Scavenging Ooze to gain you life and make the ooze bigger. Look at Ojutai's Command's first mode. Look at his interaction with unearth effects like Whip of Erebos. He just comes in and flips. Being a creature in the graveyard rather than an uninteractive planeswalker is just a lot more versatile. That's just one of many positive attributes he has.
Also, to a few other people talking about haters in this thread, I expect us to be above toxic conversation like that.
October 1, 2015 12:37 p.m.
MindAblaze says... #22
I realize sarcasm and hyperbole don't convey well on the Internet. Personally, I like Jace. I think this card is dangerous and should be played where it fits. Looting is a tool that is very powerful in the right deck, and his Planeswalker side is all upside. As far as his dollar value goes, it's all speculation at this point. BFZ hasn't technically been released yet so really were still rising the origins hype train, and we don't know how he'll fit into standard. If the best players in the world are testing him in the broken, blue dominated formats other than modern he has to at least be worth something. 50 dollars though? Only time will tell.
October 1, 2015 6:11 p.m.
Right now looking at tcg the 6 cheapest Jaces are $63 $63 $68 $71 $76 $86....
Lol. Remember 3 days ago when he was $50?
October 4, 2015 6:55 a.m.
JakeHarlow says... #25
SCG has him listed at $79.99.
Where is he seeing play?
October 4, 2015 2:23 p.m.
I think the new inflated price tag is due to a buyout of some sort. earlier today there were only 4 copies on TCG and now there are a bunch from "Newly Launched" sellers (e.g. users who saw the price jump and thought 'hey, I might as well sell mine.') I think the move from $50 to $80 is artificial (in fact, the TCG mid has dropped almost $10 in the past few hours from $84 to $75)
kmcree says... #2
No. He won't hold $50. Give it 9 months and it'll be $20 something.
October 1, 2015 12:44 a.m.