Assassin's Trophy, general Modern/Standard card economics.
Posted on Sept. 17, 2018, 1:14 p.m. by Yesterday
I'm exclusively a prerelease & Commander player. I don't have any interest in Standard, Modern and other formats. Usually that means that if I attend a prerelease and don't get a specific card I like, if it's a Standard staple, I'm usually okay with waiting until it rotates out to buy it.
I've definitely got my eye on Assassin's Trophy, as does basically everyone else, including Modern players. I was wondering if anybody has any financial advice on what to do in this scenario? Historically, do cards that have both Standard & Modern relevance still tend to go down in price after they rotate out of Standard, or do they just continually increase in price over time as demand goes up and stocks go down?
Thank you kindly in advance.
It started at $45 on TCG and tanked to $26.
It's a good card, but it will be hard to find a home in Modern.
Jund is already so complex, but it will probably be slipped in. As for anything else, well...
Path to Exile fits nearly any deck because it's just one color. Splashing two? That's hard.
Pulse is strictly better because it wipes the board of tokens and growth and control.
Decay is strictly better because it has Hexproof.
Trophy can hit lands, sure. But in a format where you aim to win by T3, spending precious mana on land destruction is a poor option, when for the same cost or more there are better cards.
It will stay high for a while with Standard using it, but it should settle down in time to like $7 - $12 range.
September 17, 2018 1:24 p.m.
Thanks very much for the quick response.
I've heard my friend say that other people were saying that Assassin's Trophy is an answer to Tron lands. I guess it has that over the others, but I'm no expert on how practical that really is.
I appreciate this is basically a case-for-case basis, but does anybody think they could speculate; if a card were printed in Standard but had applicability in Modern as much as Path to Exile does, would it still encounter a price drop once it rotated out of Standard, or would one be better off picking it up ASAP?
September 17, 2018 1:51 p.m.
Eternal all stars at rare that are printed in a big standard set usually bottom out in the first 1-2 months. The supply skyrockets then from all the limited players. My personal opinion is that it’ll follow a similar trajectory as snapcaster mage. From what I remember, snap presale prices were high ($25-35 I think?) and started tanking as soon as innistrad was released. He bottomed out after 2-3 months of being in standard in the high teens-low 20s. Snapcaster has more eternal uses in a variety of decks compared to assassins trophy, so AT will be even lower than snap if history continues to repeat itself. It’s also possible that AT could be compared to abrupt decay because that was another GB card hyped at release and played in a ton of eternal formats.
Buying cards before they are released is usually like buying a lotto ticket with very little downside. As someone who’s bought into the hype before, no matter how good you think you are at speculating, it’s usually less than a 1/3’d of a time it actually works out in a positive fashion finance wise.
My prediction is that it’ll settle as low as $8 and as high as $15 during its standard time.
September 17, 2018 2:11 p.m. Edited.
I would stay as far away from Assassin's Trophy as possible when it comes to pre-orders. It's only a rare, and while I'm too lazy to look up any numbers, I can't for the life of me think of a standard rare that's been more expensive than Search for Azcanta Flip in the past 3 years, which hung out under $20 forever and is hugely popular in a wide variety of decks across a number of formats.
September 17, 2018 2:29 p.m.
I doubt this card will be over $10 once enough of them are cracked after release. And I think that estimate might be on the high side.
September 17, 2018 2:44 p.m.
I think jund will for sure play it based solely on the fact that it plays nicer with bbe than decay, dread bore, terminate, or pulse. With that being said, I would look at search for azcanta for a reasonable trajectory for assassin's trophy.
September 17, 2018 10:08 p.m.
TypicalTimmy: Maelstrom Pulse or Abrupt Decay are not "strictly" better than Assassin's Trophy. also, Abrupt Decay does not have "hexproof". "strictly better" means better in basically all possible scenarios. like how Lightning Bolt is strictly better than Shock. but there are certainly instances where Assassin's Trophy is better than Maelstrom Pulse (the former is a 2 mana instant, the latter is a 3 mana sorcery) or Abrupt Decay (opponent plays literally anything that costs 4 or more mana).
September 17, 2018 10:43 p.m.
cards always drop in price after they rotate out of standard. its really just simple supply versus demand. once a card rotates out of standard, not only does the demand drop because less players can now use it, but the supply also increases...exactly for the same reason. players who only play standard are now unable to use it in their preferred format, so the ones who have it get rid of it, while the people who wanted to use it but didn't, now stop looking for it.
September 17, 2018 10:50 p.m.
The best advice is to go to a prerelease and get a copy in a booster pack. Failing that, wait at most a month after release to purchase your copies, as supply is greatest then. Look at a price graph for a box of Dominaria. It cost a pretty penny at release, but a month later, when other editions hit the printers, prices dropped.
The barring any nonsense, the cards inside the booster box follow the same trend. Ravnica 3 will be no different.
TLDR; Check how much time it took for a box of Dominaria to bottom out and buy after that same time.
September 18, 2018 7:48 a.m.
Wait a few weeks after the set drops and see what the price is then it might be low enough for you to purchase it
September 18, 2018 1:15 p.m.
I would buy it as soon as it goes under $10. It will definitely be a premium removal spell in standard as Golgari and graveyard decks (AKA decks) will be strong early. That is until Ravnica Allegiance comes out and puts UW Control through the ceiling like an outdated water heater.
If anything it will go up (Look at Vraska's Contempt) and if you aren't impressed with it you can always sell out of it before Allegiance comes out. (See water heater analogy)