The Chain Veil

Commander Deck Help forum

Posted on Oct. 27, 2018, 6:26 p.m. by DrukenReaps

So my Divine Decree currently has 9 planes walkers in it... In my meta they actually tend to get some work done before they get killed.

Anyways I've been thinking about putting The Chain Veil into the deck (I have a few just lying around, those lazy veils...). At this time I'm on the fence about it. The only other times I've run Veil is when I have either a superfriends deck with ~30 walkers or when the commander is a walker.

So how many walkers would you want in the 99 before you run the veil?

TheAmazingSteve says... #2

I am just going to assume that 2 walkers being out would be good enough for value early game. Considering that each card in the deck has a 12.12 chance to come out by turn 6 (Without card draw or ramp considered), and there are nine walkers, using hypergeometric distribution we can determine that there is a 33 percent chance of getting value out of the chain veil at that point. If we wait until turn 12, there is still only a 50% chance for an acceptable amount of value.

Comparing that to a superfriends deck, there is a 95% chance for that amount of value on turn 6!

I do not think having the extra value would be worth having a dead card 50% of the time, but depending on how slow your meta is, you could run it.

October 27, 2018 11:46 p.m.

TheAmazingSteve says... #3

Now to answer the optimal number of walkers, it really depends on your feeling of risk versus reward.

We are going to use turn 6 with two walkers as a metric for the chart from now on.

1. Literally 0

2. 1%

3. 4%

4. 8%

5. 12%

6. 17%

7. 22%

8. 28%

9. 33%

10.38%

11.44%

12.49%

13.53%

14.58%

15.62%

16.66%

17.70%

18.73%

19.76%

20.79%

October 28, 2018 12:01 a.m.

DrukenReaps says... #4

TheAmazingSteve wow, I really didn't expect anyone to dig into the numbers of it. Thanks for taking the time to do that. Looking over it I think I'll let the veil collect dust for now.

October 28, 2018 4:31 a.m.