Swan Lands **Primer**
Modern*
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A single Dakmor greatly increases combo chance —April 25, 2017
The choice to play 39 lands is deliberate. With 39+ lands, we have over 95% chance to swan-combo-draw 10 lands for the kill, before decking ourselves. With 38 lands (34 remaining after playing 4), this sharply drops to 34% chance (see table below). Of course, this assumes we played exactly 4 lands (35 lands remaining), didn't fetch, didn't burn any creatures, and need to deal 19/20 damage.
Adding a single Dakmor Salvage makes it possible to combo with less than 39 lands (chance to combo with 38 lands total - 34 remaining - rises from 34% to 75%). I suspect that knowing when to draw 2 or dredge Dakmor might further increase our chances, though I haven't done the math.
Kelvin-escesare says... #2
Thanks!
Splashing white seems like a very powerful variant because Leyline of Sanctity is excellent against our worst enemy, Thoughtseize. Not to mention white can still cast Swans, neat! However our lists have very different goals. Yours is all-in combo, so the Leyline will help a lot, and of course it makes sense to include four-of Seismic Assault.
My list is combo/control, making it much more resilient against other control and midrange decks. Molten Vortex is excellent against aggro, though I can certainly see the value of four-of Assault; it's not clear to me which is better. I can't seem to find an example right now, but I have actually seen tournament finishes of Seismic Swans with less than 4 copies of Assault.
C.LewisMTG says... #1
Your list is interesting. I myself opted against the loam plan, but it's definitely an interesting route. I'm on a 41 lands "Jeskai" list myself, adding white for Leyline of Sanctity, Stony Silence, Wear and dropping the silver bullets in the mainboard for cards like Mystic Speculation and Serum Visions.
http://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/treasure-swans-20-41-land-swans/ My list if you're interested.
as far as this list goes, is a 3/3 split the way to go on your assault effects? I just can't imagine not wanting 4 Seismic Assault in here. +1 from me though!
April 22, 2017 11:07 p.m.