Preparation for States

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jkarnes

16 October 2012

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Every year I prepare for the state and provincial championships very thoroughly. This is an event that you really can't pass up if you're serious about magic because of the "unknown metagame." The unknown metagame is actually one of the reasons why I enjoy playing at State Tournaments with the "new" release schedule. There's a lot of speculation as to what the deck to beat is going to be and not a lot of time for tournament results to tritrate down and create "top decks." What you end up walking into is a room of full of players that have built what they think is the best deck given what they've read, heard, and seen.

Cards Which Impact the Format

The first thing that I do when preparing for a major tournament is look at every card in standard and find the ones that will impact the format in some way. It can be a silver bullet, a build-around card, something that you see way too much of, etc. Looking backwards is a good way to begin here... and yes it's every card that I think will impact the format in a big or small way.

Innistrad Block

Bonfire of the Damned: Anything which is priced over $30 is a good bet. This card is bonkers and serves as a defining spell for USA Miracles, Grixis Control, Rakdosian Strategies, and Naya to haymaker the opponent. Expect to play against this card frequently.

Restoration Angel: Since this card was printed it has made apperances in most top 8 lists. 3/4 fliers with flash that also serve as a combat trick are pretty solid. When combined with Centaur Healer or Thragtusk (who later appears on this list) this creature is straight up amazing.

Gravecrawler & Geralf's Messenger: These form an 8 card core for Zombies in any iteration of BG/BR/BGR. Expect to see these... a lot.

Entreat the Angels: There's a deck built around it. Prime target for Slaughter Games.

Geist of Saint Traft: 2/2 Hexproof that makes 4/4 fliers is still good. Being able to follow this up with Spectral Flight is still a good plan (it used to be Angelic Destiny but that's not in any more). With ways of getting Dead Weight from the GY into play via Sun Titan now out of standard AND a lack of good clone effects there are few true outs to this guy.

Olivia Voldaren: In case no one remembers I called this card skyrocketing in value along with Falkenrath Aristocrat back in July. Untapping with Olivia Voldaren is akin to cheating. She slots into Jund, Grixis, and Rakdos strategies without a second thought. Not only does she allow for very large amounts of power and toughness but she's also a mind control effect if she resolves her first ability. She's a 3 toughness flier that gets larger and has highly relevant effects.

Falkenrath Aristocrat: There are very few circumstanes in which I wouldn't play this card in Jund or Rakdos. For 4 mana we get a 4 power hasted flier that has the ability to become indestructable by sacrificing a creature which can trigger morbid. Terminus and Tragic Slip are the two most immediate outs to this card. Slightly more creative solutions include Dead Weight and Tamiyo, the Moon Sage.

Huntmaster of the Fells  ^Flip: Another great 4 drop for Jund and good synergy with Naya for End Step Restoration Angel antics if you need more dudes. Spreads out four power over two bodies and has a little bit of lifegain which is relevant against RakDW, RDW, and Zombies.

Sigarda, Host of Herons: I'm split on Sigarda. Decks which play her really don't want to do so in large volumes because it reduces the odds that you get a quick Sigarda... but she's a 5/5 Hexproof Flier for 5. Naya wants her but at the same time doesn't. It's a very awkard position for a card to be in.

Liliana of the Veil: Yep, this card is still real. Even though Sun Titan can't bring her back she's still a giant pain in the ass for most decks to fight through. Her ultimate still ends the games against control. Doubly dangerous now that not a lot of decks are playing with counterspells.

Griselbrand: The mainstay of Frites and the new Junk reanimation strategies. Still dangerous, perhaps moreso now with RTR.

Terminus: With library manipulation out of Standard a lot of people are saying that Terminus isn't great any more. They're stupid. A lot of things do stuff when they die (like every card with Undying ever) and this gets rid of them without the relevant death trigger.

Vexing Devil: Say what you want about this dude but don't say that he's bad. If you're casting him on turn 1 then you're playing the card wrong. Wait until you have 4 mana on the field and some cards in your hand. Cast Vexing and see if your opponent doesn't just snap call the "I'll take 4." They're afraid you'll follow up with Brimstone Volley and peg them down 9 life. That's a very large jump and one that shouldn't be taken lightly.

Silverblade Paladin: Giving other creatures doublestrike is awesome. Not to mention where he sits on the curve and the colors that will probably play him. This guy is still very real.

Snapcaster Mage: Not as much of a boss now that Ponder is out of the format but still powerful in USA and Grixis strategies. Can kill 2 toughness guys randomly or swing in against PWs from the blue.

Kessig Wolf Run: Not as dangerous with Primeval Titan out of the format, but still dangerous. Giving things Trample helps push damage through when it's 100% necessary.

Mayor of Avabruck  ^Flip: Fills the same role as Vexing Devil. You really want to play this guy in the midgame when some removal spells have been exhausted and start grinding away at the attrition war.

Hellrider: Before you laugh, understand that this card will kill you if you try and race the deck that plays it. Consider running this curve: Cackler, Ash Zealot (swing for 4), Ash Zealot or Rakdos Shred Freak (swing 6), Hellrider (instantly 4 damage + 6 = 24 total on turn 4). You could even substitute Cackler for Vexing Devil or Stromkirk Noble and get almost the same number.

Evil Twin: UB/x outs to Geist of Saint Traft or other legendary creatures.

Curse of Death's Hold: Sideboard card against RDW and Rakdos

Unburial Rites: Mainstay of Frites and Junk Reanimation

Nearheath Pilgrim: Before you fling hate at me, understand that Lifelink IS RELEVANT right now. This makes for an impossible race when you're playing Zombies and will buy you the time required to prosper. Is the precursor to Silverblade Paladin for an amazing battle-team.

Intangible Virtue: Ratchet Bomb is out and that means Tokens are a viable strategy. Mizzium Mortars costs 6 to wipe the board and your goal should be to win by that point in time. Vigilance is surprisingly relevant.

Invisible Stalker: Slots into U/W Humans and carries equipment which is generally hard to deal with. Do not underestimate this card.

Lingering Souls: Duh.

Lightning Mauler: I think this card is in a great position to be played. Instant removal isn't very saturated in the format. If this card had it's P/T swapped I think I would not hesitate to play him. Keep an eye out for this guy.

Midnight Haunting: Making 1/1 Flying Spirits is good. Doing it at instant speed is better.

Hamlet Captain: If UW humans can be a deck, you could easily make the argument to splash into Bant. This card could be problematic in Naya Humans too.

Drogskol Captain: If I had to pick Keywords that were dangerous to globally apply to a tribe I would say that Hexproof is at the top of the list. Think about it: most spirits in Standard already fly so they have natural evasion. Making removal spells irrelevant to your flying dudes (here's looking at you Detention Sphere) is a very scary thing. If you manage to stick a turn 2 Favorable Winds then this guy is a 3/3 and hence immune to Pillar of Flame.

Eaten by Spiders: Sideboard for Delver's walking around with Pikes and decks which pack fliers. Surprisingly Einstein-like tech to kill Dracogeniuses. Doubles as a solid choice against Olivia Voldaren.

Faith's Shield: Mono-white sideboard. Even though you can expect a lot of diversity in the creature types from deck to deck it's a good bet that this will help you either squeeze out the last bit of damage against zombies, or provide you with just enough of a tempo-swing on the block to be relevant. Fateful Hour really helps here because you can expect to be near or at 5 life when this card will do what it's designed to.

Blood Artist: Slots well into Zombies and gives Tokens psuedo-wipe protection.

Appetite for Brains: With RTR slowing down the format a little bit Appetite will hit targets in most game 1s. Against control, this can be a silver bullet against Planeswalkers and poblematic sorceries like Terminus and Supreme Verdict.

Tragic Slip: Instant Death for x/1s and Falkenrath Aristrocrat

I'd like to stop for a minute and talk about one card specifically from ISD that hasn't seen a lot of play when it should: Purify the Grave. Most people are running Grafdigger's Cage over it and I'm starting to wonder whether or not they know why. The goal in Magic is of course to win but the angles to take are numerous. One of the best ways to ensure that you'll make better choices than your opponent is to force them into bad decisions. This is most easily done by conceling information and doing things at the last second. Grafdigger's Cage and Purify the Grave simply don't do this. Sure, they're permanent blanket anwers to a problem... but they also offer static information for your opponent to play around. Purify the Grave does not offer any such comfort and can lead to wasted resources which in reanimation strategies is often a game-breaker. Against Zombies it totally tools out undying and can snag Gravecrawlers before they become a huge problem.

Well it's no surprise that cards which were good in SOM/ISD will be good in ISD/RTR... a couple of spells make it up on that list to the surprise of many (myself sometimes included) but playtesting doesn't lie. Continue on to see influences from RTR and M13.

Magic 2013

Vampire Nocturnus: I promise you that this guy is going to find his way into decks attempting to recreate BR Vampires. It also, shockingly, has a decent creature curve if you don't get color shafted. Stromkirk Noble > Blood Artist > Vampire Nighthawk > Vampire Nocturnus. Dat Curve.

Thundermaw Hellkite: With the tendency to play Fliers this guy is pretty nuts. He can get in there and kill Walkers or smash face for 5. Also has the potential to simply kill Spirits from Lingering Souls outright if they are being used as tempo tools to block with.

Nichol Bolas, Planeswalker: You can expect someone to try and build Cruel Control with this guy.

Garruk, Primal Hunter: Bant Control uses this guy as a win condition. It's hard to beat an unending stream of 3/3s once they resolve him, and because it's Bant Control, if they ultimate you're probably facing down 7-9 6/6s.

Ajani, Caller of the Pride: Slots in aggressively into decks running x/W or W/x. Can negate Undying on opposing creatures (super secret tech) and has the tendency to make combat math a headache for your opponent. Watch out for him.

Yeva, Nature's Herald: If I were playing BUG, I would probably play Yeva.

Thragtusk: If you don't realize that this card is impacting standard you either need to play more or take off the blindfold.

Firewing Phoenix: If I were playing RUG or USA miracles I would consider this card. I know it doesn't seem like it, but a recurring 4/x threat that you can return to your hand from the GY whenever you want can be oppressive. The lack of haste makes this card less good; however, I would still give consideration to this threat. Not as a 4-of, maybe as a 2-of or even a singleton.

Mutilate: MBC (that's Monoblack Control for those not familiar with the term) MIGHT be a thing with the printing of Desecration Demon but it's contingent on the quality of cards in Gatecrash for Black. You might see this in Jund or Grixis sideboards. You might even see Monoblack Control because of the printing of this card: Underworld Connections.

Quirion Dryad: Miracle Grow was a deck back in the day and with the presence of Flashback spells it might be one again.

Rhox Faithmender: I know, I know... "Why is this card on this list?" Let me tell you why: Lifelink is relevant. When you're fighting Jund and Zombies all day it's important to keep your life total buffered any way you can and the Faithmender does this quite well. with 5 toughness it can block on the ground all day and not break a sweat. Nothing quite beats blocking 3 to gain 2 and negate a Gravecrawler swing. Follow this up with perhaps Spectral Flight to gain 6 and block fliers... or Ring of Thune for vigilance to keep gaining life while not sacrificing the ability to block (all while growing him larger).

Sleep: Do not underestimate the voltility of this card. In control this essentially buys you a turn against agro. In Midrange this gives you two turns of unblockable beats. Seriously, Sleep can blow you out.

Vampire Nighthwawk: If you are playing standard, and you have swamps in your deck, you probably have Nighthawks. You can bet your bacon that Nighthawks will be all over the place.

Cathedral of War: In Midrange strategies or 2-color decks Cathedral can be a great first turn play. Every solo creature you play from that point forward is 5% more effective on your turn. Why 5%? Well what's 1/20...?

Mwonvuli Beast Tracker: Tutor effects in standard are always strong even if they're limited to Keyworded creatures. This guy can easily search Armada Wurm, Vampire Nighthawk, or Geist of Saint Traft... all cards that are relevant (and it has a 2/1 body).

Oblivion Ring: Mono-white answer to everything.

Rancor: I can see some decks trying to get a hyper aggressive start with Rancor. You'll probably see this around for a bit before it falls off the radar.

Acidic Slime: 5 mana for a 2/2 with deathtouch that kills something when it enters. You'll always at least get a card with this guy sometimes two.

Augur of Bolas: Cantrips are what fuel Control, and this Cantrip can block.

Flames of the Firebrand: Play against this card and you'll understand how much of a blowout it can be. It's essentially Arc Trail with more flexibility.

Sign in Blood: Monoblack or Heavy Black Draw-cards. Very good. Also can be tech'd to kill an opponent.

Unsummon: Replaces Vapor Snag in Delver lists.

War Falcon: I know, I know, another "Why is this on here" card. One word - Exalted. If you want a better explaination, look at the Human types on cards like Thalia, Guardian of Thraben and Silverblade Paladin.

Murder: This is the only instant speed "kill anything" card in standard.

Negate: Expect this to be mainboarded. Most decks don't play creature counterspells because of Cavern of Souls, but I think that's a mistake. Negate on the other hand stops Walkers, Combat Tricks, Artifacts, etc.

Duress: Oddly enough, this isn't a bad decision to put in your deck. Most lists are probably going to run non-creature cards and at the very least it lets you see the opposing hand. I'd play this in MBC (which as we've seen by the list of cards, could potentially be a thing).

Evolving Wilds: All hail 3 color! This singlehandedly allows for non-green color fixing.

Farseek: All hail fetching shocklands! Helps get Thragtusks a turn earlier, or Jace on turn 3 in GU/X builds.

Arbor Elf: One mana Elf.

Some of the usual suspects have shown up here with a couple of unusual appearances. Most people would discount Sleep and the Beast Tracker as being "too slow" but I think they have a good showing here because RTR has slowed down the format just a little bit. Not only that, but Sleep has good applications in UW humans while the Beast Tracker fits in Bant quite nicely.

Return to Ravnica

Vraska the Unseen: This Walker protects herself aggressively and has a reduction ability that's dangerous. She can straight out kill other Walkers and still have two loyalty left over. Her ultimate may not see a lot of play, but when combined with Rogue's Passage can end a game abruptly. Might be a good fit in BUG... not so much in Jund.

Trostani, Selesnya's Voice: Step 1 - Play Trostani, Step 2 - Play Armada Wurm, Step 3 - ???, Step 4 - Profit. This card is bonkers against Jund. Either they have a kill spell (which must be Murder or a Morbid Tragic Slip) or they start to find themselves in a very bad position.

Rakdos's Return: Blightning was good so it's a fairly good bet that Rakdos's Return is also good. Grixis uses this to seal the control mirror while Jund can use it to strip resources from the opponent. Rakdos decks cast this on turn 4-5 to really keep the opponent off balance. All in all this is a solid card.

Sphinx's Revelation: At instant speed this card is solid. Most people didn't play Blue Sun's Zenith because they deemed it "not good enough." Gaining life offsets the mana you don't spend on stopping or killing creatures and makes this a fairly decent bet. I wouldn't make this more than a 3 of maindeck under any circumstances.

Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius: USA Miracles has a backup win condition if their Entreat the Angels get picked off by Slaughter Games. Also fits in Cruel Control nicely.

Jace, Architect of Thought: Not as good as our beloved Mind Sculptor, but still good. A mini Fact or Fiction guarantees that JAoT at least replaces himself and potentially nets you more resources as the game continues. His +1 ability protects himself from taking overwhelming amounts of damage and occassionally keeps him alive to -2 again. -8 almost never relevant unless you don't need more cards.

Armada Wurm: 10 power with trample over two bodies that can be populated.

Angel of Serenity: Easily in position to become one of the more expensive cards in standard. The versitility of this card is staggering. You can exile your opponent's side of the board to clear the path for your own beats and if you have any space left over in the Serenity bus you can take creatures from your GY to cantrip the angel if/when she dies. Stellar card.

Underworld Connections: For those who have forgotten, Phyrexian Arena was a very real card that did very real things. When you look at this enchantment I want you to read it like this "1, Pay one Life: Draw a Card. Use this ability only during your opponent's turn and only once each turn." Would you play that enchantment? I would.

Volatile Rig: This card is like Rodney Dangerfield. It gets no respect. 4/4s that trample are okay, granted this one can accidentally die and has the potential to kill you... but it also has the potential to wipe the board and kill your opponent too. Might be playable oddly enough.

Supreme Verdict: Uncounterable Wrath of God. Good enough.

Slaughter Games: Memoricide didn't really see play, but then again, Memoricide could be countered. This card picks off threats in decks that are built to take advantage of one specific card (like Thragtusk or Entreat the Angels). I would not mainboard this card because it's virtually a dead draw against Zombies and Jund... If anything, this card is placed in Jund or Zombies sideboard.

Precinct Captain: There's hope for Mono-White yet. This guy makes 1/1s to block for him as he goes into the Red Zone. Either your opponent blocks and deals with First Strike or their counter attack is chumped by the 1/1. Pretty decent. Also activates War Falcon

Pithing Needle: "Naming Jace, Architect of Thought," will be heard frequently playing this card... probably followed by "Naming, Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius."

Mizzium Mortars: Not bad for what it does, but it could honestly be better. I like the flexibility of the card but not the Overload cost.

Mercurial Chemister: Control likes drawing cards. Drawing two cards is really good. Even though it's not the best in terms of toughness, the Chemister sits nicely in control mirrors because it must be answered quickly or the match spins out of control.

Mana Bloom: Let me explain how good Mana Bloom is so you don't freak out as to why the card is on the list. Green is going to be in a lot of decks. It'll be in Jund, Golgari Zombies, Bant, and GR Agro, GW Humans, and Naya. Of those lists, three are tri-color and need some kind of fixing. Mana Bloom always puts you at +1 mana and that mana is always whatever color you need it to be. There's an argument here for not playing Evolving Wilds and just playing this thing, but I don't like it. If you're going to build a sphere of saftey deck, this would be a good inclusion.

Lotleth Troll: Tramples? Regenerates? Can get bigger? Call.

Dreadbore: Universal Removal. Keep.

Detention Sphere: I can play 8 Oblivion Rings? Hmmmm....

Desecration Demon: MBC's champion card. 6/6s for 4 mana that fly are almost always good. See Abyssal Persecutor style decks for examples.

Cyclonic Rift: This card will singlehandedly define a metagame later. The Overload cost isn't triple blue so it's highly splashable for lategame silliness.

Chromatic Lantern: Mana-fixing and acceleration all in one card? Oh boy...

Ash Zealot: Mono-red and RakDW got another 2 mana haste guy... not only that but he has first strike too! Also punishes Gravecrawler's and Flashback spells.

Abrupt Decay: Everyone is going on about how awesome this card is... and for good reason. Cards that destroy multiple permanent types are typically a good decision to include in a deck. Granted, the decay only hits the 0-3 CMC slots, but for what it does it is a good choice.

Vitu-Ghazi Guildmage: In Bant control decks this card is a solid fit.

Ultimate Price: I would much rather have Go for the Throat but this hits good options. Thragtusk, Geralf's Messengers, Mono White guys, Mono Red guys, Delvers... It's not as horrible as you think.

Syncopate: Mana Leak is out, but Syncopate still will disrupt your opponent's Turn 3 3CMC spell. Don't overlook this!

Soul Tithe: I know this seems like a terrible card; however, in application it's actually not as bad as you'd think. You can enchant Walkers and make their controller really wonder about if it's that important to their game plan to pay for the Jace or Vraska every turn.

Slum Reaper: Hey look, Fleshbag Marauder made a re-appearance. MBC loves this card.

Selesnya Charm: Any creature with 5 power can be exiled for the low cost of GW. +2/+2 and Trample is also a pretty decent effect. 2/2 Knights, not so much.

Rakdos Keyrune: The best Keyrune. 3/1 First Strike is nice.

Rakdos Cackler: Not Goblin Guide, but still a 2/2 for 1 mana.

Izzet Charm: Double Duty cards almost always find a home. This guy can be Spell Pierce or Shock. The Filter Effect probably won't see as much play as the prior two abilities.

Golgari Charm: Global -1/-1 effects are pretty good because they kill anything that might regenerate. This also kills Enchantments which is relevant against Tokens.

Dreg Mangler: 3/3s with Haste are pretty good. Scavenge makes 3/3s with haste better.

Call of the Conclave: I personally don't think this is Standard worthy, but two of my respected playtesting friends tell me it is. I really disagree here but I value their opinion and have thus included a 3/3 Vanilla Centaur on the list.

Azorius Charm: Tempo anyone?

Stab Wound: Monoblack Control likes this card too. Especially when cast on opposing Vampire Nighthawks.

Sundering Growth: White has Disenchant again. I know it seems funny to think of it like that, but this is essentially what it is.

Traitorous Instinct: Personally I love effects like this. Red really loves effects like this because you can snag what would have been a blocker and turn it into a little more damage. Pair with Cloudshift or Conjurer's Closet for ultimate shenanigans.

Grisly Salvage: Singlehandedly makes Junk and Frites even more dangerous.

Rakdos Shred-Freak: Critical Mass for Haste in RDW and RakDW.

Rootborn Defenses: Partners with Geist of Saint Traft nicely. Also probably the best anti-wipe card printed in a long time.

Dramatic Rescue: UW Humans loves tempo cards, even if they cost 2 mana instead of one.

Annihilating Fire: Burn Spell that has built in Zombie hate. I'll take it.

Auger Spree: Kills most creatures in the format.

Centaur Healer: Zombie and Jund sideboard hate. Mainboarded in Bant for Restoration Angel antics.

Decks

Looking at the full list of cards that I would consider to be highly playable I have come to the conclusion that you will likely see the following concepts in play at your local state tournament:

• Grixis Control featuring Niv-Mizzet, Nighthawks, New Jace and a slew of burn and removal spells. Expect Dissipate to find its way into the mainboard here.
• Bant in various configurations all of which will include Thragtusk and Restoration Angel.
• Zombies in Black Green and Zombies in Jund for the reach. Jarrad's Orders might find its way into the list as a narrow include. Grisly Salvage will be a serious card in these lists for the multiple Gravecrawler hits.
• U/W Humans featuring Delver, Thalia, and Silverblade Paladin.
• USA Miracles using Entreat the Angels and Bonfire.
• Someone trying to play Werewolves
• Token Strategies using Favorable Winds and Intangible Virtue
• Esper Tokens focusing on Utilizing Sorin and Intangible Virtue.
• RDW and RakDW
• Gavony Humans
• A deck using Geist of Saint Traft and Rootborn Defenses (which may also be the UW humans deck).

Of all these configurations I think the best setup is an Esper Tokens strategy that eschews Sorrin for card selection in the form of Forbidden Alchemy. I have decided to list my build here now that States is over: Esper Spirits 2K12

I hope that you all had a good time at States. May this list help you in your building and strategizing!